March 9-12, 2022 | Winter Storm, "Wagons West"

[MesoscaleBanding]

IND

Quote

Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 302 PM EST Mon Mar 7 2022 Two systems of note in the long term. 1) is a low amplitude southern stream shortwave trough that will pass Wednesday. Both precipitable water anomalies and the more concentrated area of ascent will pass to our southeast, so it`s doubtful that our area sees measurable precipitation. 2) A more substantial northern stream trough will phase with another southern stream shortwave. Timing uncertainty on this phasing leads to a little less confidence during this period, but trends have been for this to occur further east and place stronger ascent and plume of moisture to our east. We should still have enough ascent and moisture for some precipitation late Friday into Friday night, but QPF trends within both GEFS mean and EPS mean have been downward in the last several runs (now less than 0.25"). Thermal profiles initially are supportive of rain, with a transition toward snow before ending. As of now, impactful snow amounts look to be unlikely.

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

I guess WPC is favoring a more NW solution:

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Nice write-up from the Louisville crew:

Quote

An intriguing setup will provide the potential for a late-season winter weather event across the region Friday night into Saturday. At present, the general synopsis for the event features a strong northern stream upper disturbance diving SE out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba while a southern stream shortwave feature over the southwestern United States swings eastward across Texas. A strong surface cold front will descend from NW to SE across the area Friday morning into the afternoon, dropping temperatures quickly from the upper 50s and lower 60s into the 30s. While this initial FROPA looks to bring fairly little QPF along with it, the bulk of the precipitation (and the chance for wintry weather) would likely come as additional disturbances ride up and along the frontal boundary Friday night into Saturday morning, throwing precipitation back into the cold air. At present, there is fairly good consensus in the large-magnitude cooldown Friday afternoon as well as widespread precipitation at some point with this system. However, there is still quite a bit of model disagreement as to how much precipitation there will be once temperatures plummet. Forecast confidence on specific amounts and timing is very low right now, though general signals point to a higher probability for significant wintry precipitation east of I-65, particularly across the Bluegrass region, as the most likely "failure point" for wintry weather will be intruding dry air from the north and west. Stay tuned for future forecast updates as new data comes in over the coming days.

 

[Mulaman984]

6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

I guess WPC is favoring a more NW solution:

 

I never understood these maps lol. Seems to contradict INDs AFD. 🧐

[MesoscaleBanding]

GFS trend with the initial band of snow (last 4 runs)

 

[mafa]

Definitely different from 12z

[MesoscaleBanding]

Big hit for the I-71 corridor on the 18z GFS - that's more like it.

 

Edited March 7, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[Grace]

18z GFS impressive run for sure

[junior]

Honestly thought it would be worse than 12z based on earlier looks but the northern vort doesn't shear our southern piece as much as 12z.

 

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Big hit for the I-71 corridor on the 18z GFS - that's more like it.

 

Can you please take a closer look over Oklahoma?

[Grace]

The difference so subtle from 12z on 500mb vort but allowed much better phasing. Just timing. 

 

If you get perfect timing this has potential to be massive...or bad timing a dud. 

 

[Stevep95]

8 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Big hit for the I-71 corridor on the 18z GFS - that's more like it.

 

[Grace]

For those wondering, there really are some similarities to 2008.  I'm certainly not saying we'll have the same results but here's the progression of 2008:

 

 

 

 

You had the first deep south system on the 4th & 5th similar to the upcoming system in south. 

Then you had the winter storm energy dropping out west on the 5th-6th. On 7th you can see the PV dropping out of Canada & phases with the winter storm energy on the 8th & the rest is history. 

There are some differences but a lot of similarities. If timing is similar we could have a biggie. I remember in 2008 models struggled greatly to resolve until late in the game. 

Edited March 7, 2022 by Grace

[NeXrad]

1 hour ago, ceciliaky said:

Ah, the joys of following Louisville weather people 😉

one station already calling the weekend an Alert Day and another throwing model shade …. and it’s only Monday. 

Ugh Doucheberg srsly wish he would leave the market 

[NeXrad]

10 minutes ago, Grace said:

For those wondering, there really are some similarities to 2008.  I'm certainly not saying we'll have the same results but here's the progression of 2008:

 

 

 

 

You had the first deep south system on the 4th & 5th similar to the upcoming system in south. 

Then you had the winter storm energy dropping out west on the 5th-6th. On 7th you can see the PV dropping out of Canada & phases with the winter storm energy on the 8th & the rest is history. 

There are some differences but a lot of similarities. If timing is similar we could have a biggie. I remember in 2008 models struggled greatly to resolve until late in the game. 

2008 was pretty epic for a late season snow we even had thunder snow here in Louisville 

[Grace]

8 minutes ago, Grace said:

For those wondering, there really are some similarities to 2008.  I'm certainly not saying we'll have the same results but here's the progression of 2008:

 

 

 

 

You had the first deep south system on the 4th & 5th similar to the upcoming system in south. 

Then you had the winter storm energy dropping out west on the 5th-6th. On 7th you can see the PV dropping out of Canada & phases with the winter storm energy on the 8th & the rest is history. 

There are some differences but a lot of similarities. If timing is similar we could have a biggie. I remember in 2008 models struggled greatly to resolve until late in the game. 

 

18z GFS on March 12 as phase begins compared to March 7, 2008 as phase begins:

 

As you can see there are a lot of similarities. Differences as well but a lot of similarities. And I must add, on that particular run. We've got 90hrs of model runs, so who knows...but potential is there. 

[FortySixAnd32]

54 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Big hit for the I-71 corridor on the 18z GFS - that's more like it.

 

I'll be patiently awaiting Sleetfest 3.0....

[BuckeyeGal]

It’s back, baby. 💪🏻

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

I'll be patiently awaiting Sleetfest 3.0....

I already had Sleetfest 2.0, but this event is Snowzilla 3.0 March Edition. XD

[Virus047]

26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I already had Sleetfest 2.0, but this event is Snowzilla 3.0 March Edition. XD

Lol. So it is written. So it shall be done? 

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Virus047 said:

Lol. So it is written. So it shall be done? 

No more Winter Storms in Oklahoma after this, I had 2 Major Snowstorms in February. This one may make #3 & could rival the March 4th, 2015 snowstorm.

Edited March 7, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Snow____]

https://media2.giphy.com/media/qESBZRcLXrFUbE9r8Z/200.gif

 

I guess I don’t know how to use the gif system 😂😂😂

Edited March 7, 2022 by Snow____

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Happy 14th year anniversary to my OV friends!! An avatar that has and will remain until the next blizzard

[snowlover2]

18z RDPS last frame.

[Ohiobuckeye45]