Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 You know your in trouble when u can't even get a lift from the RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, Hiramite said: All of OH. I would assume some refinement by the 5 WFO's is forthcoming. (There I go using that word again.) Refinement is such a great word.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Is team Northwest Shift ready to roll for 12z & 0z today? Let's go! It is March Madness ya know. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 As always, we never get a NW shift when we need one, and ALWAYS get one when we don’t want one. Such is life in central Ohio where if it can go wrong, it will go wrong. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 ILN’s morning thoughts: Spoiler LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strengthening cold front will be pushing in from the northwest on Friday. Fed by a plume of moisture extending from the distant southwest, precipitation beginning mainly as rain will spread across the area through the day on Friday. As forcing increases ahead of a sharpening upper trough, a surface low will develop to the south, and precip will change to snow Friday evening as the low level flow shifts to north behind the front. Snow will continue through Friday night as the surface low shifts toward the East Coast. Period of heaviest snow looks to be between Midnight and 7 am Saturday, concentrated over eastern counties where lift and moisture transport will come into phase. Even as drier air works in on Saturday behind the low, snow showers will be possible in the brisk northwest flow with gusts over 20 knots. Current forecast shows storm total snowfall ranging from 2 inches in western counties, 3 inches from Wilmington to Columbus, up to 4 inches in a group of southeastern counties where a winter storm watch has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) The Snowfall Guessing Game is a go! Deadline is midnight tonight. 12 locations. Don't be shy, give it a try. Winner take all! https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/108-march-11-13-2022-snowfall-guessing-game/#comment-4300 Edited March 10, 2022 by Hiramite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Louisville (LMK) AFD, talk about a nice write up, well done and great read: Spoiler Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Mar 10 2022 ...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A WINTER STORM OVER PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND... Friday - Saturday Night... Confidence continues to increase in a late winter storm that will likely cause travel impacts across our CWA Friday night into Saturday. In addition to expected accumulating snow, bitter cold temps are forecast to briefly return to the area through Saturday night. Friday remains dry for most, with increasing upper sky cover and mild temperatures, especially across our SE where the sky cover holds off the longest. Look for highs in the upper 50s and low 60s along and south of the Ohio River, with highs around 50 across southern IN. Late in afternoon and early in the evening, the right entrance region of a strong upper jet overspreads southern Indiana, with light banded precipitation (should be a cold rain at onset) likely by sunset. The frontogenetical band associated with the right entrance region of the polar jet will continue to overspread the CWA as we enter Friday night. Meanwhile, phasing with a southern stream system will quickly occur, adding more deep moisture to the system, especially east of I-65 for our area. The upper jet structure will feature a "coupled" orientation where the left exit region of the subtropical impulse and the right entrance region of the polar jet combine to create intense upper level divergence. With strong divergence aloft comes surface cyclogenesis, strong in this case up the mid Atlantic Coast. Given the deepening surface low to our east, we expect the cold front to rapidly undercut increasing precipitation across our area Friday night. In addition to the surface temps falling below freezing, the entire thermal column is expected to crash under the heavier rates thanks to dynamic cooling. Cutting a cross section through the storm yields an interesting perspective on how things might evolve. First off, there will be a broad precipitation shield with bands light to moderate rates thanks to the strong forcing and broad/sloped frontogenesis. This initial snow may be hard to accumulate at first given the warm grounds/temps ahead of the event, however with temps quickly falling through the 30s some light accums are possible early in the night. Focusing in more specifically on saturated Theta E analysis yields some Weak Symmetric Stability (WSS) and even some Conditional Symmetric Instability (CSI) in the presence of saturation through the DGZ, especially over our eastern CWA. This would indicate that narrower and more intense bands with rates of 1+" per hour will be possible through the heart of the event (06-12Z). There are some pockets of negative EPV (equivalent potential vorticity) adding a bit more credibility to some more prolonged moderate or even briefly heavy snow rates. At the very least, the rates look strong enough to overcome any warm surface obstacles to the point where travel will be likely impacted. Amounts: The biggest question that remains is how well we will be able to accumulate given the initial warm grounds/roads, and just how quickly that cold air undercuts the precipitation to change it over to snow? Given the strength of the system and the overall favorable synoptic setup east of I-65, would tend to the think that the column will change over pretty quickly, so have gone with WPC and just a bit more aggressive with numbers from the previous forecast. This will yield the need for a Winter Storm Watch from Cynthiana, down through Lexington, down to Campbellsville, and points eastward. Think there could be a swath of 4 to 6" in this area. Counties surrounding that Watch area over to the I-65 corridor could see 2 to 4", and areas west of I-65 should expect 1 to 2". Outside of the Watch, a Winter Weather Advisory will likely be needed for the entire CWA if the current data holds close to true. Confidence and Caveats: Confidence is high that we will see at least some minor accumulations with some travel impacts on Friday night into Saturday. Timing confidence is also high. However, confidence is only medium on amounts given the uncertainty with warm temps ahead of the system. Also hurting confidence a bit is the exact timing of the phase. Slight changes in the timing can drastically alter the intensity and impacts of this storm either way to the high or low side, so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 10, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 I'll take 3 inches in March. 🙂 Poop-tastic trends overnight. Here's hoping we can all yank it NW with positive thinking. Go team! lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 PAH AFD is pretty good too. Spoiler .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Very little has changed in this latest forecast for the winter storm system Friday into Friday night. QPF over most of the region is between 0.15" and 0.25", but far southeast portions of the region are closer to 0.40". Using a 50/50 blend of the ConsShort and NBM hourly temperatures Friday, and the NBM Friday night, snowfall totals continue in the 1" to 2" range over almost the entire forecast area. The GEFS and ECENS continue to indicate a strong probability of at least 1", but little chance of 3", which supports these forecast totals. The bigger concern is just how much impact to travel there will be. Although we have trended down on temperatures ahead of the precipitation Friday. We should stay above freezing in the far northwest for much of the day. If the initial band of snowfall in that area comes down hard enough it may knock temperatures right down to freezing and may create some slush on some roadways, especially bridges. If any problems develop Friday afternoon it would be north of a Van Buren Missouri to Marion Illinois to Princeton Indiana line. Confidence is just not high enough in impacts Friday afternoon to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Southeast of that line, the snowfall accumulations will mainly be in the evening, and the impact will be directly related to the freezing line. It is possible that much of the snow will fall before temperatures drop below freezing which would limit the travel impacts. Of greater concern may be flash freezing of wet roads as the temperatures drop below freezing. Forecast confidence in significant impacts continues to be too low to consider an Advisory for Friday night. There is a decent signal in the 00Z guidance for more significant snows to develop Friday night just east of our region from middle Tennessee through central and eastern Kentucky. It is conceivable that this could include our far southeastern counties, but it too is a stretch for a headline at this time. Used a combination of ConsShort, NBM and ConsAll for winds and wind gusts Friday through Saturday. It will be quite blustery Friday night and Saturday, but gusts should generally be in the 25 to 30 mph range. Saturday morning lows will span the teens from northwest to southeast, and the early morning wind chills will range from zero north to 10 above in the south. Skies should clear quickly Saturday morning, but with the strong cold advection and possibly some minor snow cover temperatures will struggle to reach freezing east of the Mississippi and may not reach 30 over the Evansville Tri State. Thankfully by daybreak Sunday, south winds will develop and deliver us from this late season bout of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) EDIT: 9Z SREF has improved in some areas.... For us purists, the 9Z SREF Tracker will be out in a few. Edited March 10, 2022 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 10, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hiramite said: EDIT: 9Z SREF has improved in some areas.... For us purists, the 9Z SREF Tracker will be out in a few. I mean.. why can't the one member that has me getting 10 inches be right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 3Z and 9Z SREF Update: The original SREF Tracker remains steadfast....accept no imitations!! These totals should be higher than those "fancy" 10:1 Pivotal maps. Only locations over 1" make the cut. I won't be around for the 15Z but the 21Z will include both. Map boycott still in place. (Unable to paste formatted/color-coded text at this time....) 3Z and 9Z SREF update.(includes 15Z, 21Z, 3Z, 9Z) Findlay – x/x/2.3/1.4 Toledo – x/x/x/x Cleveland – x/x/3.6/3.2 Youngstown – x/x/3.8/4.0 Akron/Canton – x/x/3.5/3.8 Marion – x/x/3.1/2.8 Columbus – x/x/2.3/2.7 Dayton (N) – x/x/2.3/2.2 Dayton (S) – x/x/2.1/2.3 Hamilton (N.Cincy) – x/x/2.0/2.1 Z-ville – x/x/2.4/3.4 Dover/New Philly- x/x/2.9/3.7 Mt. Vern/ Newark – x/x/2.8/3.1 Parkersburg – x/x/2.3/4.1 Indy – x/x/x/x Covington KY - x/x/1.7/2.1 Lexington KY- x/x/1.6/3.2 Paducah KY - x/x/0.8/1.3 Pittsburgh - x/x/2.6/3.5 Johnstown PA - x/x/1.4/3.6 Altoona/Blair PA - x/x/0.6/3.4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) Where I start to get nervous on anything major changing (or lack of changing) is about that 36 hour mark so definitely need to see some sort of positive move back on the 12z suite Edited March 10, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Those of us in the zone between the frontal axis snows and the snows associated directly with the LP really get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The NAM sticking to a storm cancel here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I'm almost in really good snow on 12z NAM. On that NAM run if the northern energy where a little further west thatvrun would've been golden. The southern energy opened up further west resulting in greater precip but the northern energy is too far east & keeps it from faster phase & amped solution. It's the darn little things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 10, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 Well that was an awful run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 3km is even worse... If Saturday gets completely ruined by bitterly cold windchills for no reason im truly going to be over winter lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) The RGEM continues to bail...its over. Nuisance snow it is Edited March 10, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) Anything that had an axis path along that snowhole in S IN/NW KY/SEMO was doomed 😅 Edited March 10, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 10, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM is literally storm cancel here. Not even an inch 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now