Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 9, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, JayPSU said: The only time the Canadian was ever right when it was alone was when we got screwed with Sleet Fest 2022. It will eventually cave... It nailed the Christmas Eve storm last year I think.. no other model had us getting higher amounts except for it. But yes. Hasn't had the best track record this year I don't believe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 An I-71 corridor screw zone looks consistent at least 😂😂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Atleast the 18z GFS appears to stop the bleed. Tick better than 12z thru hr 54. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevep95 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 NWS Cleveland maps really are low end ~1” high end ~10”. Quite the range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Little better. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 🤣 Oof, a REALLY sharp cutoff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The snow is already starting in Kansas, Winter Storm Warnings have been extended southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z GEFS - gonna need those stronger/further west outliers in east-central TN to pull off a coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The good news is 18z a wee bit heavier precip & moved NW a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z GEFS looks better than 12z 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z GEFS snowfall mean (10:1) & comparison to 12z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Local Columbus met: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2022 Haven’t been around much today, but it appears that the more things change, the more they have stayed the same. One paragraph from CLE explaining things, including the high RGEM amounts: Quote As the previous discussion mentioned, the trough remains positively tilted until Saturday morning and most models jump the low to the East Coast fairly quickly Friday night. While the mid-upper level lift with this system supports increasingly moderate snow Friday night into Saturday (and really rips on Saturday, but likely just to our east), the currently progged evolution would take the zone of snow across our area somewhat quickly Friday night into Saturday morning, and would keep the heavier rates that will develop on Saturday to our east/northeast. The Canadian model swings the trough around to a more neutral tilt quicker Friday night and doesn`t transfer the low to the East Coast quite as quickly and supports amounts greater than 6" for roughly the eastern 2/3rds of our area. However, the bulk of the other operational models and ensemble members are more progressive and are fairly steady with that solution, and that is the direction the forecast continues to lean. However, the evolution of the trough and how quickly the low jumps to the East Coast will need to be monitored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 18z GEFS improved 12z 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 28 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: 18z GEFS snowfall mean (10:1) & comparison to 12z Might have to expand the KC WFO warnings Southeast a bit if that's the case. Spoiler AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 334 PM CST Wed Mar 9 2022 .Discussion... Issued at 334 PM CST WED MAR 9 2022 Message of the Day - Hazardous travel is expected Thursday across the entire area due to a winter storm. 5-7 inches of snow is expected between HWY 36 and HWY 50, west of HWY 65. Everywhere else is forecast to see 3-6 inches of snow. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 9 PM tonight through 6 AM Friday. -Cold temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday. The coldest night is Friday night into Saturday morning with lows in the single digits and wind chills around or just be low zero. Discussion Surface high pressure nosing into the area has kept today quiet and mostly sunny. We are just about at our high temperatures of low to mid 30s along the MO/IA border to near 50 degrees south of HWY 50 and the 40s in between. Tonight, the elongated trough, currently in the northwest CONUS, starts moving south and ejecting a series of shortwave troughs through the Midwest. Around the 850-700 mb layer, there will be a boundary and the LLJ will strengthen, both of which will also help drive snow development. At the surface, high pressure will continue nosing into the area, keeping surface temperatures near or below freezing. Soundings show a below freezing vertical profile across the area so all snow is expected. There is a chance for a little rain/snow mix in Clinton over to Sedalia for a couple of hours Thursday afternoon as surface temperatures warm to around freezing. Otherwise, expect all snow for this event. The LLJ and upper level shortwaves will result in a couple of periods with moderate to heavy snow. The first is Thursday morning, mainly along the MO/KS border. Snow rates could be between 0.5 - 1.0 inch per hour for a couple of hours. The LLJ weakens during the day, resulting in light snowfall. Then Friday night the LLJ strengthens once more, and we could see snow rates up to 0.5 inches per hour from Linn County, KS over to Howard County, MO. The system finally moves out of the entire area by Friday afternoon. Only small changes were made to timing and snow amounts, so the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are the same. They start at 9 PM Wednesday and end at 6 AM Friday. Hazardous travel is expected throughout the day Thursday for the entire area and into Friday morning areas south of HWY 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 WPC's latest 4", 8" & 12" probability... 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Still within striking distance but our window is shrinking each run...we need something to join the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) KC area SREF plumes range from 5.15" downtown to 7.14" at St. Joseph. Edited March 10, 2022 by Organicforecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Any 18z Euro action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 10, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Any 18z Euro action? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Ugh, sorry I asked 💩😆 Edited March 10, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: That might be the worst run yet, last night it was one of the hopefuls lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeXrad Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Chris Bailey out of Lexington issued his first call this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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