March 9-12, 2022 | Winter Storm, "Wagons West"

[Ohiobuckeye45]

11 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Based on 12z 1-1.5" of that is from tonight/tomorrow. Not sure if the 18z still sees that

 

10 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Which in itself is crazy some models show nothing but the rgem is the most bullish

For what its worth, there wasn't much that had this band that far NW. RGEM and partially the euro maybe

[FortySixAnd32]

26 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

One last trip to Seven Springs this weekend?

I love that place!!! Plenty to do even if you don't ski. Great place for kids. 

[Cincysnow]

ILN was chatty this morning: 

Spoiler

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... We are still on track for a rather significant pattern shift toward the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend, with high confidence in a return to much colder/unseasonably cold conditions for this weekend. Although model guidance continues to come into better agreement regarding specifics of the evolution of the system for Friday evening into Friday night, there are still questions regarding the two initially-distinct systems, one across the Rio Grande Valley and the other in the upper Midwest, and how deeply and how quickly they phase into a cohesive longwave trof developing into the eastern CONUS by Friday night/Saturday. With this being said, it appears probable, at this juncture, that pcpn should start off as some light rain Friday afternoon, initially in EC IN and WC OH, before the deeper cold air filters in quickly late afternoon into the evening. There will be a fairly quick changeover from pcpn initiation to snow for locales further east because the sfc CAA will be faster than the deeper-layer forcing/dynamics. Therefore, there is a chance the current fcst has too much rain in for locations near/E of I-71 Friday evening, when in fact it may switch to snow fairly quickly due to the combination of dynamic and evaporative cooling. This is likely to be a system where the ptype is pretty much entirely determined by the thermal profile within the BL, and /NOT/ the presence of an elevated warm layer. And because of this, once the steadier pcpn begins, we may see temps quickly fall into the mid 30s, with a changeover to snow for a few hours before temps fall near/below freezing. By Friday evening, the large scale forcing/ascent increases progressively from the west. Still to be determined at this point, among other things, will be the more precise longitudinal position of the mid/upper level trof and timing questions on phasing, with obvious implications on the associated wind and thermal fields as we progress into Friday evening. It seems reasonable to expect the H8 trof to pivot E through the ILN FA Friday evening, with the slow progression of the initially ill- defined sfc boundary E during the daytime period as several weak surface waves develop along the baroclinic zone near the spine of the Appalachians. Once the better forcing and mid/upper level support arrives by Friday evening , expect to see a tightening of the LL thermal fields, indicative of frontogenetic processes, promoting further expansion of ascent as the LL front shifts E. There are some important temporal/spatial differences to still be worked out here, but strictly from an ensemble and probabilistic approach, there remains a strong signal for a broad area of rain to mix with, and eventually change to, snow Friday evening into Friday night as the overall mid/upper level system quickly phases. There are intricacies in this process that quite frankly may not be resolved by global guidance for another day or two due to the sensitivity of a system`s phase, depth, magnitude, positioning, etc. and correlation of those processes to the development and focus of banded precipitation. For now, it does seem likely that pcpn will change to snow for a good portion of the ILN FA Friday evening into Friday night as much colder air rushes in from the west, with both GEFS/EPS ensemble suites indicating near or greater than 50% probabilities for at least 3" of snow for locations near/E of I-75. While it is still too premature to think about potential headlines which may come down the line, especially with the aforementioned uncertainties leading to lack of confidence, there is a signal for more than a few local spots to have 2-4" of snow Friday evening through Friday night, especially for parts of NE KY and central OH. And even with this being said, there is a potential for a narrow axis of higher amounts that may evolve for the eastern third or so of the ILN FA, but this of course will be dependent on the specifics of the phasing and whether the trof digs a bit more and can take on a more neutral tilt. Will continue to highlight potential for accumulating snow in the HWO.

 

 

[Andino]

Accuweather called for 1-3" earlier in the week for my area. It looks like that may be the best solution as we get this close to gametime.

[BuckeyeGal]

4 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

ILN was chatty this morning: 

  Hide contents

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... We are still on track for a rather significant pattern shift toward the end of the workweek into the upcoming weekend, with high confidence in a return to much colder/unseasonably cold conditions for this weekend. Although model guidance continues to come into better agreement regarding specifics of the evolution of the system for Friday evening into Friday night, there are still questions regarding the two initially-distinct systems, one across the Rio Grande Valley and the other in the upper Midwest, and how deeply and how quickly they phase into a cohesive longwave trof developing into the eastern CONUS by Friday night/Saturday. With this being said, it appears probable, at this juncture, that pcpn should start off as some light rain Friday afternoon, initially in EC IN and WC OH, before the deeper cold air filters in quickly late afternoon into the evening. There will be a fairly quick changeover from pcpn initiation to snow for locales further east because the sfc CAA will be faster than the deeper-layer forcing/dynamics. Therefore, there is a chance the current fcst has too much rain in for locations near/E of I-71 Friday evening, when in fact it may switch to snow fairly quickly due to the combination of dynamic and evaporative cooling. This is likely to be a system where the ptype is pretty much entirely determined by the thermal profile within the BL, and /NOT/ the presence of an elevated warm layer. And because of this, once the steadier pcpn begins, we may see temps quickly fall into the mid 30s, with a changeover to snow for a few hours before temps fall near/below freezing. By Friday evening, the large scale forcing/ascent increases progressively from the west. Still to be determined at this point, among other things, will be the more precise longitudinal position of the mid/upper level trof and timing questions on phasing, with obvious implications on the associated wind and thermal fields as we progress into Friday evening. It seems reasonable to expect the H8 trof to pivot E through the ILN FA Friday evening, with the slow progression of the initially ill- defined sfc boundary E during the daytime period as several weak surface waves develop along the baroclinic zone near the spine of the Appalachians. Once the better forcing and mid/upper level support arrives by Friday evening , expect to see a tightening of the LL thermal fields, indicative of frontogenetic processes, promoting further expansion of ascent as the LL front shifts E. There are some important temporal/spatial differences to still be worked out here, but strictly from an ensemble and probabilistic approach, there remains a strong signal for a broad area of rain to mix with, and eventually change to, snow Friday evening into Friday night as the overall mid/upper level system quickly phases. There are intricacies in this process that quite frankly may not be resolved by global guidance for another day or two due to the sensitivity of a system`s phase, depth, magnitude, positioning, etc. and correlation of those processes to the development and focus of banded precipitation. For now, it does seem likely that pcpn will change to snow for a good portion of the ILN FA Friday evening into Friday night as much colder air rushes in from the west, with both GEFS/EPS ensemble suites indicating near or greater than 50% probabilities for at least 3" of snow for locations near/E of I-75. While it is still too premature to think about potential headlines which may come down the line, especially with the aforementioned uncertainties leading to lack of confidence, there is a signal for more than a few local spots to have 2-4" of snow Friday evening through Friday night, especially for parts of NE KY and central OH. And even with this being said, there is a potential for a narrow axis of higher amounts that may evolve for the eastern third or so of the ILN FA, but this of course will be dependent on the specifics of the phasing and whether the trof digs a bit more and can take on a more neutral tilt. Will continue to highlight potential for accumulating snow in the HWO.

 

 

"There is a potential for a narrow axis of higher amounts that may evolve for the eastern third or so of the ILN FA."

[Hiramite]

I must say, the Pivotal SREF snow maps come out much earlier than the SREF plumes. But the maps are 10:1 while the Plumes are based on Boone and Etchevers snow ratios.

So please join me in boycotting these maps.  Accept nothing but the original SREF Tracker. 🙃

[GRR]

26 minutes ago, Andino said:

Accuweather called for 1-3" earlier in the week for my area. It looks like that may be the best solution as we get this close to gametime.

2 local Indy mets this morning are also calling for 1" to 3"!!

[Organicforecasting]

Might I suggest adjusting the date by two days sooner?

 

Hitting Goodland, KS WFO tonight.

Spoiler

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 541 AM MST Wed Mar 9 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 230 AM MST Wed Mar 9 2022 Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along southern edge of the warning for today and Thursday. Initially, fog has been slow to develop along leading edge of the cold front which has settled into the Colorado and Kansas border area. Stratus has been favored over fog, probably due to the slightly stronger winds which have been around 10-15 kts. Nonetheless, short term models continue to suggest visibility reductions to less than one mile will occur later this morning, so will continue to monitor for a possible advisory. Snow currently across southeast Wyoming/Nebraska panhandle will gradually shift south through this afternoon with approach of upper shortwave. Denver cyclone apparent in current observations will slide southeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Snow will quickly fill in to the north of the surface low after 00z. A couple of concerns to note. First, may see a band of heavier snow set up along the Kansas and Nebraska border area, as shown by both the NAM and HRRR. Total snow amounts may approach a foot under that band. Second, as the surface low deepens to our south, a tight pressure gradient will develop, resulting in a brief period of very windy conditions. This will occur between 00z and about 04z (5 PM to 9 PM MST), with strongest winds in southern areas, generally along and south of Highway 40. Wind gusts to around 50 mph appear possible. Since this is the area where the snow will develop the latest, some question of how much snow will actually be on the ground, but it won`t take much to create blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Winds will diminish between 04-06z, and should end the risk of blizzard conditions, though it will remain breezy through the night. The bulk of the snow will fall tonight, with only light snow lingering into Thursday. Currently only showing an additional inch or so Thursday morning, mainly in eastern areas, then only very light snow in the afternoon. Ran the warning and advisory all the way to 00z, but may be able to cancel early. Temperatures not really going anywhere on Thursday with highs in the teens. Thursday night, low temperatures and potential wind chills to 15 below will depend on how fast clouds clear out. It will be close as most of the area starts to clear out towards 12z, allowing some radiational cooling to occur. Low temperatures may plummet to near or slightly below zero, especially in low lying areas, with wind chills potentially as low as 15 below.

 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Organicforecasting

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I must say, the Pivotal SREF snow maps come out much earlier than the SREF plumes. But the maps are 10:1 while the Plumes are based on Boone and Etchevers snow ratios.

So please join me in boycotting these maps.  Accept nothing but the original SREF Tracker. 🙃

College of DuPage is also another good SREF Tracker, comes out later than the Pivotal Weather SREF, but all loaded in at the same time!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This is killing me, it takes 32 days for a new site 32 days to be considered no longer a "new domain" so I'm still only able to post from my phone which during the day is less than ideal. My work has a block on new domains

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Starting to feel like a general 2-4" storm...which still excites me but not as much in March as 4-6"+ would. Still enticing that the RGEM was closest to the current storm than others and see if there's continuation of the 6z solution in thr 12z RGEM/CMC

[Cincysnow]

4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This is killing me, it takes 32 days for a new site 32 days to be considered no longer a "new domain" so I'm still only able to post from my phone which during the day is less than ideal. My work has a block on new domains

That’s not going to work. Tell them you are out. There are plenty of jobs, but only one sphere 😎

[Ohiobuckeye45]

The 6z ecm was as unchanged from the 00z as you'll ever see😄

[OSUWx2]

5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This is killing me, it takes 32 days for a new site 32 days to be considered no longer a "new domain" so I'm still only able to post from my phone which during the day is less than ideal. My work has a block on new domains

lol same, hence why this is my first post in this thread 😂

Also, I’d gladly welcome a heavy snow, but I’m not going to be heartbroken if it slides east and we’re left with white rain (aka not much accumulation for how much is falling). Anything that falls will be gone by Monday anyways. 

[BuckeyeGal]

14 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

Might I suggest adjusting the date by two days sooner?

 

Hitting Goodland, KS WFO tonight.

  Reveal hidden contents

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 541 AM MST Wed Mar 9 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 230 AM MST Wed Mar 9 2022 Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued along southern edge of the warning for today and Thursday. Initially, fog has been slow to develop along leading edge of the cold front which has settled into the Colorado and Kansas border area. Stratus has been favored over fog, probably due to the slightly stronger winds which have been around 10-15 kts. Nonetheless, short term models continue to suggest visibility reductions to less than one mile will occur later this morning, so will continue to monitor for a possible advisory. Snow currently across southeast Wyoming/Nebraska panhandle will gradually shift south through this afternoon with approach of upper shortwave. Denver cyclone apparent in current observations will slide southeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Snow will quickly fill in to the north of the surface low after 00z. A couple of concerns to note. First, may see a band of heavier snow set up along the Kansas and Nebraska border area, as shown by both the NAM and HRRR. Total snow amounts may approach a foot under that band. Second, as the surface low deepens to our south, a tight pressure gradient will develop, resulting in a brief period of very windy conditions. This will occur between 00z and about 04z (5 PM to 9 PM MST), with strongest winds in southern areas, generally along and south of Highway 40. Wind gusts to around 50 mph appear possible. Since this is the area where the snow will develop the latest, some question of how much snow will actually be on the ground, but it won`t take much to create blizzard or near blizzard conditions. Winds will diminish between 04-06z, and should end the risk of blizzard conditions, though it will remain breezy through the night. The bulk of the snow will fall tonight, with only light snow lingering into Thursday. Currently only showing an additional inch or so Thursday morning, mainly in eastern areas, then only very light snow in the afternoon. Ran the warning and advisory all the way to 00z, but may be able to cancel early. Temperatures not really going anywhere on Thursday with highs in the teens. Thursday night, low temperatures and potential wind chills to 15 below will depend on how fast clouds clear out. It will be close as most of the area starts to clear out towards 12z, allowing some radiational cooling to occur. Low temperatures may plummet to near or slightly below zero, especially in low lying areas, with wind chills potentially as low as 15 below.

 

Absolutely to account for the plains involvement! When I’m not mobile I’ll do so (it’s not letting me edit the title). Unless another admin gets there first. 😊

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

That’s not going to work. Tell them you are out. There are plenty of jobs, but only one sphere 😎

32 days should hit by next week...by then I think we'll be virtually out of winter wx tracking 😪

[Ohiobuckeye45]

2 minutes ago, OSUWx2 said:

lol same, hence why this is my first post in this thread 😂

Also, I’d gladly welcome a heavy snow, but I’m not going to be heartbroken if it slides east and we’re left with white rain (aka not much accumulation for how much is falling). Anything that falls will be gone by Monday anyways. 

I like that all of Saturday and Sunday morning can be enjoyed. Gives me extra intrigue 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Cincysnow]

This might be a dumb question, but is each NWS local office responsible for designing their own local office page? Just curious why the variance from one office to the other: 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Impressive slow moving banding

[Snow____]

54 minutes ago, Cincysnow said:

This might be a dumb question, but is each NWS local office responsible for designing their own local office page? Just curious why the variance from one office to the other: 

I think so. I’ve noticed that a while back. Some of them have a lot cooler features than ours and some are barebones and makes ours look like hogwarts. Some do a lot on that home page before clicking into your specific area.

Heres a couple for example 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Snow____

[Snow____]

NAM with the I-71 screw zone 😂😂

[BuckeyeGal]

6 minutes ago, Snow____ said:

NAM with the I-71 screw zone 😂😂

[Mulaman984]

I mean, if there was ever a need for a NW shift within 48 hours…

[BuckeyeGal]

It's interesting to me that storms seem to follow the same trajectory throughout a winter season. This one looks very similar to a few we've already had.. where the bigger totals were JUST to the East of my area.

[NKYSnowLover]

9 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

This looks about right for the Cincinnati area... somehow a band to the north and eastern KY / SE OH / WV cashes in... again