PA road DAWG Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: 3z SREF was abysmal (what snow storm, pretty much) but 9z starting to pick up better. Pops from State College to Williamsport to Scranton. Then members and mean for Williamsport. Some doozys in there. The SREF’s whiffed a lot this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) This feels like the last call at the bingo hall in here 😄 Edited March 10, 2022 by Poco 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 3z SREF was abysmal (what snow storm, pretty much) but 9z starting to pick up better. Pops from State College to Williamsport to Scranton. Then members and mean for Williamsport. Some doozys in there. 03z and 09z SREF’s are night and day different. 9z much snowier. But they generally suck Edited March 10, 2022 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: Bigtime shift east on the 6z euro Euro must have heard me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, LUCC said: I don't know, long range NAM hasn't been too good this year so status quo. Yesterday's storm was modeled horribly on NAM until 1-2 model runs before the event. True but I'll take the euro Nam combo over the gfs. If I had to be on 1 side, I'd pick the nam euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: The SREF’s whiffed a lot this season. They nailed it yesterday at least for us yesterday we got 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) SREF took a huge jump east and juiced as @PA road DAWG alluded too. Things are starting to align. Vs previous run Edited March 10, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: SREF took a huge jump east, as @PA road DAWG alluded too. Things are starting to align. That 6" area awfully close, but it's the SREF soooo...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Your at central/ southern coastal NJ right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Your at central/ southern coastal NJ right? Right in the middle of NJ, 195 cuts the state in half north and south, I'm right in the middle of 195 west to east. the geological center of NJ is two miles away. Edited March 10, 2022 by LUCC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 6Z RDPS went slightly east but it's no NAM/EURO/SREF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: They nailed it yesterday at least for us yesterday we got 5". Said I would get 5" too... got 1.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 23 minutes ago, Poco said: This feels like the last call at the bingo hall in here 😄 Are we playing full card now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Said I would get 5" too... got 1.5" You prob would have got more if it accumulated when it fell. You prob have 5" fall from the sky lol. This should be heavy snow so it will accumulate better than yesterday's storm, along with falling temps. Edited March 10, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Pittsburgh NWS is going with 4 to 6 for me at the moment. That seems pretty reasonable given what most models are showing. Their best case scenario has 10 inches, and the worst case would be only three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: You prob would have got more if it accumulated when it fell. You prob have 5" fall from the sky lol. This should be heavy snow so it will accumulate better than yesterday's storm, along with falling temps. I ended up with .36 in the gauge. In January that's 5! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Would be nice to get either the gfs or Canadian farther east. Then we could be a lot more confident in a more eastern solution. Right now you have EURO,NAM,SREF in Eastern camp vs GFS,CMC in more western camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: SREF took a huge jump east, as @PA road DAWG alluded too. Things are starting to align. Mmm...can't say I haven't said that a few times this year only to have repeated disappointments. A local met who is also skeptical had this to say.... Quote 𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐦 𝐓𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥/𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐆𝐫𝐞𝐞𝐧𝐬... You may have heard there's a chance of snow this weekend. This upcoming weather event has already reached some astronomical amount of hype. The type of storm hype where even people you know who don't care about weather are asking you about a monster snowstorm. This stuff can take on a mind of it's own. I'm generally a conservative forecaster as many know, so for this post I want to lay out a few points of caution to add a different perspective. First off, yes the general mean of the model runs right now would absolutely support a storm that leaves us with quite a bit more snow on the ground than we have right now in the Green Mountains as a whole. A deep trough, with phasing from the northern stream energy (dropping out of the Arctic) and southern stream energy (ejects out of the SW US) looks to take place. A low pressure system will form in response and it will track along a frontal boundary that bisects the region. The uncertainty and reason for caution is entirely in how far out we still are from the event, and the models often having issues resolving the amount of phasing between the two pieces of energy. For this post, I'll offer a few things to pay attention to and be aware of in addition to the possibility of a high-end snow event that you may be seeing on social posts or traditional media. This system is still 48+ hours away from starting. It's hard to ride perfect consistency in the models for 2-3 days straight up to hour zero. 1) The energy involved in creating this storm has not been fully sampled just yet as the northern stream is up in the Arctic and the southern stream energy is dropping into the southwest US. How long or short that southern energy makes the turn and ejects eastward is a big deal. Also the northern energy could be weaker or stronger, and take a slightly different path to phasing and the sensible weather result here in the Green Mtns is much different. 2) There is still a risk that this is a lot of rain for much of ski country. See the latest 18z NAM for reference. It could be pouring rain all day Saturday east of the Adirondacks except for a change to snow in the northern Greens on the NW flow behind a late boundary/FROPA (frontal passage). We are talking 50 mile shifts in the boundary placement and low pressure track that can mean the difference between a knockout heavy rain blow and a healthy snowstorm. 3) The event is quick moving due to being positively tilted. The trough never goes negative as the upper level lows take a while to close off. This impacts the speed of the system, as well as moisture advection. There's a decent chance the QPF amounts are being over-stated or tighten up, as any time you see 1.5-2.0" max amounts you should be skeptical. Significant snow is very possible, but you always have to wonder about model progs showing sustained 0.10-0.20"/hour liquid equivalents. 4) The whole thing ends up weaker than expect and more progressive. Without a closed low, the moisture doesn't get advected back west as much as current models show. A more general moderate snowfall takes place, maybe with a more narrow band of heavier snow in NH/ME. It could also just be weak and progressive enough that no one really sees 12+ potential. 5) Southern convection leads to more latent heat release than models expect, which pumps heights ahead of the system and it becomes stronger and tracks further west. A final 24-hour near term westward trend occurs as models begin to resolve the amount of convection forming in the southeast US. The meso-scale models might be better realizing (or not realizing) the convective factor. The purpose of this post is to show the uncertainty at this time frame. It isn't to downplay the storm system, but this forecaster does think that sometimes the hype of a storm leads to a confidence in the weather consumer that may not entirely be there. The next 24-36 hours will be huge in determining outcomes, rain/snow lines and snowfall amounts. Fingers crossed for big snows and this holds for the next few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) feels like this is in the middle of all the models. Trust this more in the longer range but can’t discount a middle ground solution that’s for sure. Edited March 10, 2022 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here's the forecast discussion from the overnight crew at BTV NWS. Looks like we start with low ratio snow that can cause power outages and finish with high ratio snow that will be blown around in the heavy winds after the storm passes. I feel like Saturday will be a day of quickly changing weather conditions. Quote SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM EST Thursday...A surface low pressure system will begin to form near the Mississippi Delta Friday night and will rapidly intensify as it tracks to coastal New England Saturday afternoon. A broad deformation axis looks to set up along a corridor extending from the the Ark-La-Tex region all the way up to the St. Lawrence Valley late Friday night and will bring light snow to much of northern New York. This axis will shift eastward slightly into northwest Vermont after midnight with light snow spreading eastward. However, this deformation axis will begin to fall apart as energy begins to shift toward the rapidly intensifying low pressure system over the east coast. By daybreak on Saturday, we will see snow continuing across northern New York and the northern half of Vermont with minor snow accumulations occurring during this time. It won`t be until closer to noon that we see snowfall rates pick up as the surface low tracks across Connecticut and Rhode Island. The northwest side of extratropical lows is the place to be if you are looking for heavy snow as this tends to be the axis of best frontogenesis. This case is no exception as both layer frontogenesis from 850 to 700 mb (and higher!) is pretty much off the charts. From noon through 6 or 7 PM on Saturday snowfall rates will likely exceed an inch/hour with upwards to 2 inches/hour possible across central and northern Vermont as well as portions of northern New York. Southern Vermont will be a very challenging situation but thankfully not due to a mix of freezing or any other type of wintry mix. Boundary layer temperatures will remain marginal through much of the day across western Windsor County, mainly the Connecticut River Valley. This will likely yield a rain/snow mix through the morning and early afternoon hours before ultimately switching to snow as dynamic cooling aloft allows temperatures to steadily fall. We have gone well below guidance for temperatures by using the 25% of the NBM to account for the dynamic cooling but it wouldn`t be surprising if southern Vermont may switch to snow quicker than expected given the strong dynamics at play with this system. The biggest concern for the snow on Saturday will come down to snow ratios. Southern Vermont will likely see 5:1 to 10:1 snow ratios through much of the day before climbing closer to 18:1 by the time snow ends. This could yield 3-5 inches of very dense snow which begins to create problems for utilities. Even across the remainder of Vermont and northern New York we could see 3-5 inches of wet snow during the onset of the snow given the marginal boundary layer temperatures and well above normal PWATs. When all is said and done, 8-14 inches of snow looks likely across much of the region with southern Vermont seeing closer to 3-8 inches given the marginal boundary layer temperatures. Given these snow totals and potential impacts to utilities, we have gone ahead and issued a winter storm watch for all of the North Country from Friday night through Saturday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 10, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 10, 2022 SREFs up, man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 Oh...what, am I supposed to be impressed NAM? You think you can right all your wrongs by placing me in the bullseye. Go home! I'm so over you.... wait....don't go.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I dunno HV.. last night I jokingly said Congrats Delaware, but NAM trends have me wondering 🤔 😆 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Wouldn't surprise me if this goes further east, wouldn't surprise me if this went further west, we shall see and cannot rule out anything at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 By Friday it might be Fish storm.. it is Lent after all. ‘’I will see myself out. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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