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March 12-13, 2022 | Winter Storm - Blue Ridge Blizzard


HVSNOWSTORM

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8 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Hmm.. 0z NAm gonna be a doozy? Cold seems 50ish miles faster than 18z

That was a money run for a good bit of PA from just east of Pittsburgh to Scranton.

This is still kind of far out for the model though. It had the zone of heaviest snow for today's event from the Jersey shore through Northern Virginia 2 days out LOL310374708_snku_acc.us_ne(1)(5).thumb.png.5ec8b78004913eaa70e0b2bc0713d59c.png

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5 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said:

That was a money run for a good bit of PA from just east of Pittsburgh to Scranton.

This is still kind of far out for the model though. It had the zone of heaviest snow for today's event from the Jersey shore through Northern Virginia 2 days out LOL310374708_snku_acc.us_ne(1)(5).thumb.png.5ec8b78004913eaa70e0b2bc0713d59c.png

Congrats Delaware? 😆 

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18 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said:

That was a money run for a good bit of PA from just east of Pittsburgh to Scranton.

This is still kind of far out for the model though. It had the zone of heaviest snow for today's event from the Jersey shore through Northern Virginia 2 days out LOL310374708_snku_acc.us_ne(1)(5).thumb.png.5ec8b78004913eaa70e0b2bc0713d59c.png

 

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Gonna be hard this far east to avoid that warmth flooding the mid levels.  NAM3 is closest to giving my area a snowstorm, but even it falls short.  850s rarely crash fast enough in these maturing systems without drying taking place aloft.

 Other than a few rogue SREF members, this is best case as currently modeled. H8 low passing overhead isn't very favorable.  Inam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_fh39-60.thumb.gif.c6f36f2fa4dd9db8983364e9270c3fc0.gif

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35 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Gonna be hard this far east to avoid that warmth flooding the mid levels.  NAM3 is closest to giving my area a snowstorm, but even it falls short.  850s rarely crash fast enough in these maturing systems without drying taking place aloft.

 Other than a few rogue SREF members, this is best case as currently modeled. H8 low passing overhead isn't very favorable.  Inam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_fh39-60.thumb.gif.c6f36f2fa4dd9db8983364e9270c3fc0.gif

A ton of truth all packed into one succinct post. 

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40 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Bigtime shift east on the 6z euro

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Cmon Euro please pull this one out. It def looks like the 3k NAM that was posted above. Let's finish the season with a nice 6-12" storm

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11 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

3k NAM, still going this would be a HUGE hit. Below is snow and where the storm is at when the snow map is, so still lot to go.

nam-nest-ne-total_snow_kuchera-7108000.thumb.png.5e1c2a9ddea8c4cdabc9cd9913f3ea37.pngnam-nest-ne-instant_ptype-7108000.thumb.png.c48e2220f4730803081a7b469f81169c.png

 

 

It's long range 3k NAM, but I'd have to assume it will do well in a dynamic storm like this.

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4 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

It's long range 3k NAM, but I'd have to assume it will do well in a dynamic storm like this.

I don't know, long range NAM hasn't been too good this year so status quo. Yesterday's storm was modeled horribly on NAM until 1-2 model runs before the event.

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4 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

It's long range 3k NAM, but I'd have to assume it will do well in a dynamic storm like this.

I always love how one can go from being on the eastern edge of heavy snow in NWS discussions, to the Western edge in about 1-2 suites. These 6z Euro/NAMs... ehhhh, enough easterly jogs already! 😆 

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3z SREF was abysmal (what snow storm, pretty much) but 9z starting to pick up better.

 

Pops from State College to Williamsport to Scranton. Then members and mean for Williamsport. Some doozys in there.

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