March 12-13, 2022 | Winter Storm - Blue Ridge Blizzard

[Undertakerson2.0]

9 minutes ago, Poco said:

If I refer back to my original post in March thread the 9th was definitely signaled by bsr 

the ear wave that I was looking at for around mid month never came to fruition, that being said there was a large Ull that correlated to near this date, so this long wave was highlighted by ear.
 

The strong mid month signal currently looks similar to the bsr ~16 but modeling doesn’t have the cold to go with it.  When I look back at the bsr for that date it’s kind of obvious that the mid month wave lacked a connection to the cold, hindsight is 2020 but these are just tools to help guide us in the right direction and interpreting them is not an exact science, more like painting or something lol
 

if you ask me I think the strat split around the 6 has helped drive this threat as it exhibited sort of a positive feedback loop in the nam region from tropo to strat back to tropo.  

ISO is considered part of organic forecasting so  one would be wise to mix that into forecast when considering our sensible weather and though we might not get a monster to end the season this storm Is very very potent with some mega fronto, should be fun to see some rates. 
 

 

Speaking of Fronto - that's a "wicked" (if I may MaineJay et al) clash as depicted by Euro

[Bradjl2009]

First local snow maps have dropped. 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Man I hope the Euro has this one right, more snow and farther east.

[JDClapper]

22 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said:

First local snow maps have dropped. 

What does one believe.. considering g what their maps looked like for today's event 😄 

[JDClapper]

13 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Man I hope the Euro has this one right, more snow and farther east.

Have yet to clock a 6+ this year, when we average 1-2/season... so, just maybe.... maybe.

[StretchCT]

1.5" on table, deck and grass.  Had to measure with a yardstick which looked pretty silly as I lost my snow ruler.

 

[JDClapper]

Early 1st bets from CTP.

[telejunkie]

In my eyes, every storm this year has trended north and west (like today's event) and/or slower with the colder air in the final days leading up to the event. Call me a pessimist but been burned time and again this winter with models over hyping the cold and snow. Keeping my expectations to a cold rain and wind event for this one.

Edited March 9, 2022 by telejunkie

[Bradjl2009]

8 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

What does one believe.. considering g what their maps looked like for today's event 😄 

Watch this one will bust low after today lol

[PA road DAWG]

12 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

In my eyes, every storm this year has trended north and west (like today's event) and/or slower with the colder air in the final days leading up to the event. Call me a pessimist but been burned time and again this winter with models over hyping the cold and snow. Keeping my expectations to a cold rain and wind event for this one.

Super progressive flow and a wide open Atlantic might favor an easterly track tho.  We shall see 

[JDClapper]

18z ICON, to pass the time.

[JDClapper]

18 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

Hate to say it but this will almost undoubtedly be shifting west as we get closer.  We’re already starting to see that and the upper levels show no sign of slowing down.  Expect big shifts back west tonight  

 

2 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Super progressive flow and a wide open Atlantic might favor an easterly track tho.  We shall see 

Tune in tomorrow for As The PARD Turns! 😆 

All in good fun man!

[telejunkie]

27 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Tune in tomorrow for As The PARD Turns! 😆 

All in good fun man!

Seems as though I've taken the PARD turn....

Meanwhile my favorite forecaster seems way more jazzed up about this threat

Quote

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

More March 12-13 magic for northern Vermont with powerful storm bringing 16-24 inches Saturday/Saturday evening

It's worth reiterating Monday's bullet point about the pattern going forward this March not appearing especially wintry. But March is the one of the more chaotic months of the year climatologically speaking, and big storms can materialize even when conventional wisdom would suggest they should not. Worth noting how the Martin Luther King holiday was able to magically produce a big snow consistent with some recent tradition. Big storms also seem to a magnet for the March 12-15 period with several years in the last 30 featuring big events in this time frame. Recent data suggests we can do it again, with a fast moving but impressive looking March powerhouse of a storm lined up for the weekend. 

Tranquil weather conditions will lead us to the weekend fireworks. Thursday features some sun with temperatures topping out a few degrees above the freezing mark on the mountain and Friday is a cloudier version of Thursday. Both days should feature decent visibility and it should be noted, very little wind. Our storm will form out of an area of moisture around the southern parishes of Louisiana and move quickly northeastward Friday evening. Dramatic improvements in the forecast stem from the track of this system. Initial concerns relating to the pattern amplifying too far west are now gone and replaced with a near perfect setup and a storm exploding in the Delaware Valley bordering NJ/PA and tracking over metro-Boston and eventually over the downeast region of Maine. It doesn't get much better than a potentially sub 970-mb storm tracking through this corridor. The only downer relates to the fast northeast  movement of the storm, a theme that has been prevalent all winter and likely related to the lack of downstream blocking in the jet stream. I am happily accepting this gift however and given the recent confirmation from ensemble data, this storm appears earmarked for 16-24 inches in the northern Green Mountains, most of it coming during the day Saturday. 

Here are some additional details. The eastward shift in the storm track places us in a much better position to get full access to the storm's moist conveyor. Snow should begin late Friday night or in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday but with fairly marginal temperatures of around or just below the freezing mark. Saturday morning's snow is likely to be wet across valley locations up to about 2000 feet and powdery above 3000 feet. Colder air positioned on the west flank of the storm will ultimately get entrained into Vermont as the storm bombs Saturday and temperatures will fall into the teens and 20's, depending on elevation allowing the snow consistency to turn powdery everywhere. Unlike the event in early February which featured a nearly 2 foot snow and little wind, this storm is considerably more dynamic and will feature increasing amounts of wind as Saturday progresses. It will be cold enough for powder by late in the ski day up and down the mountain, but windy enough amp up the density of the fallen snow overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Snow should continue Saturday evening with some Champlain enhancement during the overnight hours. The speed of the storm is the only thing limiting snow totals to the 16-24", a slower moving storm and we would do more. Sunday is blustery with flurries and snow showers in the morning but skies should clear and sunshine will bring temperatures into the 20's during the afternoon. Monday's temperatures will then reach the 40's as southwesterly winds quickly bring more spring-like temperatures to the MRV. 

After the weekend, the pattern continues to appear milder. There are hints of a weather system on Tuesday (3/15) bringing some precipitation consisting of some initial rain turning to wet snow followed by some seasonable temperatures for the middle of the week. But the weekend of March 19th and 20th is indicated to be mild with the only question relating to whether we can keep the rain away.  There are signs of a return to more normal temperatures by around March 23rd but normal in late March consists of above freezing daytime temperatures.

 

[PA road DAWG]

2 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Seems as though I've taken the PARD turn....

Meanwhile my favorite forecaster seems way more jazzed up about this threat

 

I just hope we see some Giant fatty flakes !

[PA road DAWG]

33 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

 

Tune in tomorrow for As The PARD Turns! 😆 

All in good fun man!

Haha reverse psychology 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

35 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

Super progressive flow and a wide open Atlantic might favor an easterly track tho.  We shall see 

Just need the euro to finally nail one this year. Finish up the season with a nice 6"+ storm.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

It's at least encouraging that the euro shifted east pretty significantly at 12z today vs last night's 0z.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Just now, HVSNOWSTORM said:

It's at least encouraging that the euro shifted east pretty significantly at 12z today vs last night's 0z.

0z top - 12z bottom

[PA road DAWG]

12 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

It's at least encouraging that the euro shifted east pretty significantly at 12z today vs last night's 0z.

 

10 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

0z top - 12z bottom

Gefs still well east of op also

  👍🏻 

Edited March 9, 2022 by PA road DAWG

[JDClapper]

25 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said:

I just hope we see some Giant fatty flakes !

Love those giant flake 2-3"/hr snow rates. I mean, who doesnt???

[Organicforecasting]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

 

Tune in tomorrow for As The PARD Turns! 😆 

All in good fun man!

https://media2.giphy.com/media/12Nv3nBSCAbLO0/200.gif

Dang it...did it again!

Edited March 9, 2022 by Organicforecasting

[TheRex]

BTV's latest update with talk of heavy snow up to 3" an hour.  I bolded a couple of places.

Quote

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 408 PM EST Wednesday...High confidence continues for impactful
weather on Saturday due to a major winter storm. On Friday night, a
strong and amplified northern stream shortwave currently in the
Arctic will phase with a southern stream system currently on the
west coast, becoming a full latitude and positively tilted trough
extending from the Great Lakes region to the western Gulf Coast.
Model guidance continues show a surface low forming downstream east
of the Appalachians and tracking rapidly along the east coast from
roughly northern Georgia to Delaware to near New York City in about
12 hours. Ridging ahead of the storm will help tighten the
temperature gradient, with frontogenesis promoting snow on the
northwestern flank of surface low pressure. This zone of snow will
develop across northern New York and spread northeastward into
northern Vermont, initially light but will become moderate to heavy
by daybreak. Periods of heavy snow will persist until the deepening
low pressure center moves into Maine Saturday night. The boundary
layer may be near or slightly above freezing depending on the exact
storm track, with valley rain, mainly southern Champlain and
Connecticut River Valleys, initially favored until stronger
northerly flow develops as the surface low passes to the east during
the day.

Current probabilities for 6 inches of snowfall within 12 hours
exceeds 50% for the entire North Country, so expect winter storm
watches will be issued as soon as tomorrow if trends continue. While
heavy snowfall is expected, the magnitude in a particular location
is difficult to assess with a large spread in model guidance. Our
initial snowfall forecast through 7 PM Saturday consists of the bulk
of the precipitation which ranges from 8 to 12 inches in most of the
forecast area. Historically surface low tracks similar to the one
expected produce heavy snowfall for area. If a more eastward storm
track materializes, the duration of heavy snow in southern and
eastern Vermont would increase. While heavy snowfall is expected,
accumulations will be limited by the relatively short duration of
the heavy snowfall rates given lack of upstream blocking and late
closing off of the 700 millibar low.

Heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will occur in
mesoscale bands, causing very difficult travel during the peak of
the event. Snow ratios will likely favor wet snow, becoming a
powdery snow especially if the storm track is on the eastern
envelope of model guidance. Snow will be impacted by increasing
northwest winds, gusting in the 25 to 35 MPH range Saturday night
and producing areas of blowing and drifting snow. Depending on the
snow load, these winds could result in some power outages as well.

Active weather pattern continues next week with variable
temperatures as storm track remains near the North Country. After a
brief cold and blustery Sunday, a quick warm up on Monday is
expected ahead of a weakening clipper system. Depending on the
degree of low level moisture and track of the system, there could be
a round of snow showers. Given the time of year and extent of cold
air, a lot of precipitation chances during the period will be snow
mainly in the higher elevations.

 

[TheRex]

BTV already put out a snowfall map for this weekend's storm.  This is pretty early for them to do this.

Quote

 

[JDClapper]

21z Sref pops in Williamsport, Scranton and State College. 

Still quite the split on ptype and timing of the changeover.

[Hiramite]

Greetings Fellow Snow Enthusiasts.

For those who aren’t familiar, back at the other site I ran a Snow Guessing Game when there was a widespread snow event. Basically I provide the Cities, you guess the amounts and I crunch some numbers (more details to follow.)

So, as this may likely be the last widespread snow event of the season, if anyone is interested in participating, please respond with a “thumbs up”. If I can get a total of 8-10 people from both here and the OV, we’ll give it a go.

Thanks

Edited March 10, 2022 by Hiramite