Poco Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 0z gfs op h5 delta last 8 runs heights lowering out front over the last 8 18z navgem was outside gfs at 18z and 0z gfs adjusted right on top of the 18z nav and looked cold enough for much of PA, see what 0z nav does, it’s been lock and step with gfs last few runs. 12z gmao was cold enough for most of pa too, sometimes the globals like to follow the gmao, not even sure why yet. 18z and 0z gfs did this. Edited March 9, 2022 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This isn’t a slow storm, the most one should hope for is a quick blast of snow more like an extended squall than anything around here. The enhanced omega forcing could cause quite the rates 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 H850 front 0z gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, Poco said: 12z gmao Bumping this so it can be seen With the other posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Saturday's anafrontal deal will certainly be felt. Gradient winds set up and take on that "brutal" look. Sunday's High only 30 something (wind chills likely in the lower 20's?) OUCH 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 9, 2022 Author Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 0z Euro 4pm Saturday: Edited March 9, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) This is looking like a pretty exciting and fun storm to attract to finish off winter. The Pittsburgh NWS for now is going with 4 inches the city. I think that's good enough at the moment given it's still 3 days out Edited March 9, 2022 by Bradjl2009 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 BTV has me at a 90% chance of snow on Saturday. Here is their forecast discussion: Quote LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 AM EST Wednesday...The long term starts active as models continue to show significant cyclogenesis across the mid- atlantic states Friday night into Saturday morning. Models also show a rapidly deepening surface low moving northward up the Atlantic coast and across New England. Trends are shifting as significant dynamical cooling as the low pressure system matures/intensifies, along with an eastward moving frontal zone that the low is expected to track along. Thinking now leans to more of a snow solution with temperatures in the valleys being just above freezing, but periods of heavy, wet snow midday on Saturday with early snow rations looking around 8 to 1 early on. QPF amounts are still ranging from 0.30" to 1.25" across the CWA with models still differing where the heaviest swath of precipitation will set up. Heavy snowfall rates could result in difficult travel later Saturday/Saturday night before snow ends late Saturday night. We will continue to monitor carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Here along I99 and just north of I80, EPS has a very strong signal of 2"+ snowdepth increase. Havent seen many looks like this, this season from the EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 4 hours ago, TheRex said: BTV has me at a 90% chance of snow on Saturday. Here is their forecast discussion: LOL Quote with early snow rations looking around 8 to 1 early on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: LOL As long as they're not yellow rations you're good. Eat as much as you want. Edited March 9, 2022 by 1816 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, 1816 said: As long as they're not yellow rations you're good. Eat as much as you want. Maybe the later snow rations taste better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Maybe the later snow rations taste better? But more expensive. You need to get in for the early bird special to save a buck or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, 1816 said: But more expensive. You need to get in for the early bird special to save a buck or two. LOL - yeah, we retired "blue platers" love to save a $ or 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 @Poco looks like our organic EAR signals for today and this upcoming weekend are coming to fruition. Not bad. This weekend system is quite the doozy!! Although it’s relative progressive and fast, it’s a banger of a system that could yield impressive rates. Looks like it’s coming during the day all day Saturday too, which is great because I Iove seeing it snow heavily. Nighttime storms are a waste of good scenery haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) No weather in this zone (in red) I guess - maybe that is what they mean by "rations" (ha ha) Edited March 9, 2022 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: @Poco looks like our organic EAR signals for today and this upcoming weekend are coming to fruition. Not bad. This weekend system is quite the doozy!! Although it’s relative progressive and fast, it’s a banger of a system that could yield impressive rates. Looks like it’s coming during the day all day Saturday too, which is great because I Iove seeing it snow heavily. Nighttime storms are a waste of good scenery haha The thermal gradient (very strong CF) and dynamics via a rapidly intensifying low (bombo) will produce some mega thump results - flip the switch quick transition expected from R-S. Edited March 9, 2022 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: The thermal gradient (very strong CF) and dynamics via a rapidly intensifying low (bombo) will produce some mega thump results - flip the switch quick transition expected from R-S. NAM makes me shed a tear, of joy, for once this season. 😆 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: LOL Maybe they are rationing the snow so everyone can get some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 For instance, here's the sounding just as it flips over here. Even the model thinks it's rain - yet the sounding scream very heavy snow (column saturation is nearly total with quite the alignment within a decently deep DGZ) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: @Poco looks like our organic EAR signals for today and this upcoming weekend are coming to fruition. Not bad. This weekend system is quite the doozy!! Although it’s relative progressive and fast, it’s a banger of a system that could yield impressive rates. Looks like it’s coming during the day all day Saturday too, which is great because I Iove seeing it snow heavily. Nighttime storms are a waste of good scenery haha If I refer back to my original post in March thread the 9th was definitely signaled by bsr the ear wave that I was looking at for around mid month never came to fruition, that being said there was a large Ull that correlated to near this date, so this long wave was highlighted by ear. The strong mid month signal currently looks similar to the bsr ~16 but modeling doesn’t have the cold to go with it. When I look back at the bsr for that date it’s kind of obvious that the mid month wave lacked a connection to the cold, hindsight is 2020 but these are just tools to help guide us in the right direction and interpreting them is not an exact science, more like painting or something lol if you ask me I think the strat split around the 6 has helped drive this threat as it exhibited sort of a positive feedback loop in the nam region from tropo to strat back to tropo. ISO is considered part of organic forecasting so one would be wise to mix that into forecast when considering our sensible weather and though we might not get a monster to end the season this storm Is very very potent with some mega fronto, should be fun to see some rates. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 15-20 miles away... Edited March 9, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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