HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 SREF MEAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stacked Vort said: Folks, this thread is discussing which storm? 9-10 or 12-13 ? Both haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Stacked Vort said: Folks, this thread is discussing which storm? 9-10 or 12-13 ? Yes both waves. No big deal. This was for 10-13th period and someone changed it. Plus it generates more discussion in slow periods to include both than to seperate them. I don't see any issue with it since I'm basically talking to myself and on occasion @JDClapper. Edited March 7, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Yes both waves. No big deal. This was for 10-13th period and someone changed it. Plus it generates more discussion in slow periods to include both than to seperate them. I don't see any issue with it since I'm basically talking to myself and on occasion @JDClapper. This 3/9 into 3/10 threat is looking more and more legit. It's a daytime light-moderate system down here in PA, so may only end up grass and decks, roads ok.. but, 1-3", maybe a few surprises? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 That's one hell of a storm even with the heavy rain to start.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 7, 2022 Started a thread for the more near term threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Here goes the models trying to get my hopes up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GFS trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Canadian trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GEFS Mean and members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This one getting more interesting even in my neck of woods. 12z Euro finally showing a snowstorm here, first time all winter. 😆 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 EPS signal strengthening for interior PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) Big jump east on the icon, obviously going to see a lot of*waffling" this far out . Edited March 7, 2022 by Mike W IN CNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 hours ago, JDClapper said: EPS signal strengthening for interior PA. This is looking like our best possible threat since January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 This is starting to look interesting! Im not a fan this could be snow but I guess its whatever, it is march still. Id be down to be in the warm sector winds would be howling no matter which spot (warm or cold) and if we are in the warm sector severe weather is a certain with the trough going negative and a rapidly deepening storm. Would be something to go from 75 today to snow this mid week back to low 70s by friday/saturday and severe weather back to some backend snows. Gonna keep an eye on it but right now central and western PA into NY seem to be the hot spot. May not take much of a wiggle to do either a further east or west scenario (further east is better potential right now than further west with still a progressive pattern). Remember low heights in TX/ higher heights in the east classic setup for a big storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: This is starting to look interesting! Im not a fan this could be snow but I guess its whatever, it is march still. Id be down to be in the warm sector winds would be howling no matter which spot (warm or cold) and if we are in the warm sector severe weather is a certain with the trough going negative and a rapidly deepening storm. Would be something to go from 75 today to snow this mid week back to low 70s by friday/saturday and severe weather back to some backend snows. Gonna keep an eye on it but right now central and western PA into NY seem to be the hot spot. May not take much of a wiggle to do either a further east or west scenario (further east is better potential right now than further west with still a progressive pattern). Remember low heights in TX/ higher heights in the east classic setup for a big storm. First Pittsburgh local met mention of the threat on Twitter was just posted. Ironically, 3/13 would also be the 29th anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Please let this happen, we deserve it after what a torture filled February it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 8, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: First Pittsburgh local met mention of the threat on Twitter was just posted. Ironically, 3/13 would also be the 29th anniversary of the 1993 Superstorm. 1 minute ago, Bradjl2009 said: Please let this happen, we deserve it after what a torture filled February it was. It sure would be something to have an anniversary storm in similarish fashion. Hey we continue to nickel and dime the season away even into march it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: It sure would be something to have an anniversary storm in similarish fashion. Hey we continue to nickel and dime the season away even into march it seems. Would be nice to have one last storm to track that will actually be fun IMBY before it's too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2022 GYX The next chance for widespread precip arrive Saturday, with the potential for a very strong low pressure system to deepen across interior New England into the Canadian Maritimes. This will mean the chance for periods of moderate precip rates, potentially gusty winds, and strong warm air advancement into the region. Other, finer details are fleeting while ensemble suites place their means on slightly different tracks. The ECMWF ensemble mean tracks along the Gulf of Maine coast, while GEFS is further inland and stronger, quicker. With large swaths of precip in both instances, the bigger challenge now is on the temperature forecast. A solution closer to the ECMWF and GEM would result in at least a period of snow for much of the forecast area, while the GEFS would bring temps supporting mostly rain outside of the mountains. Have sided closer to this warm track for now, as it may already be hedging a NW trend of the low. It is important to note that while both ens means show a very low pressure center value(med to high confidence for gusty winds, widespread precip), the low pressure center position envelop remains wide in both suites (lower confidence for temps and ptype). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2022 Jeez, explosive development on most models. We are talking 20-25mb drop in 12 hours. Looks like I'm currently in the warm side for the most part, but that's where the winds might be strongest. Ecmwf 27mb drop in 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Jeez, explosive development on most models. We are talking 20-25mb drop in 12 hours. Looks like I'm currently in the warm side for the most part, but that's where the winds might be strongest. Ecmwf 27mb drop in 12 hours. Yes it’s pretty impressive to see. The strength has been getting picked up on every model too. Imagine if we had even a tiny bit of blocking. Would be a hum dinger….speed keeps it modest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 Gfs and euro now have snow with this system as well... could be a fun blast of heavy snow on the back end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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