HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z GFS for thw 11th-13th: YEAH BOYY, back to back runs: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 12z GFS for thw 11th-13th: YEAH BOYY, back to back runs: And CMC is rain. Can't make this stuff up lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: 12z NAM is trying to provide hope for 3/10 farther north. Just keep trending, def lot of time where this could end up a decent little moderate event for people like you and me near the NY/PA border. GFS was north and looks pretty similar to the NAM for this wave on the 10th. Then another wave on the 11th that partially phases with a piece coming from the west gives some light snow to areas further north into NY. Then as posted above the big boy storm being modeled comes through with a major Artic blast on the 12th-13th. Fun pattern if we can cash in on even one. GFS for first and second waves on the 10th-11th. Edited March 6, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, JDClapper said: And CMC is rain. Can't make this stuff up lol There's a LOT going on, no way we are gonna get model agreement until we move through at least tomorrow, then should get better idea for first 2 waves, then once one of those comes through maybe we cam get some type of general consensus for the larger potential on the 12th-13th. And it (CMC)wants to give a light snow event with wave 1 less than 80 hrs out now for SPA, EPA, HV. 12Z CMC WAVE 1 SNOW: 12Z CMC GIF FOR ALL WAVES: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z GFS Snow for the larger storm potential on the 12th/13th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 Just to throw it in the mix, the 12z icon has the big storm with rain to snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) 12z GFS ENS, have pretty good LP placement for the 10th, 11th, 12th. First is farther south, for SPA type areas, 2nd is further norther for NPA/NY type areas. The 12th has a Benchmark track with pretty widespread snow coverage. 12z GFS ENS all waves GIF: Edited March 6, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) What honestly be hilarious if there was a decent snow in Pittsburgh next weekend for the first time in weeks when I wouldn't even be there for it lol Edited March 6, 2022 by Bradjl2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 18z GFS 12th/13th storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 47 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 18z GFS 12th/13th storm: Seems like the GFS has been shifting noticably west each run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 21z SREF has 20% chance of snow in the interior. 30% chance of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 0z CMC 9th-10th. What a miracle it would be if CMC pulled this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 7, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 7, 2022 The degree and timing of the phasing matters, but most of us are probably too far east. We are still outside of 100 hours, so we can shift, but I'm not sure how far. There are still sure very deep members cutting into lake Erie and heading down the st Lawrence or even running more poleward. EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 0z CMC 9th-10th. What a miracle it would be if CMC pulled this one out. Getting near 48 hours away from onset too.. 18z Wed here in CTP would be onset, done by 5z or so Thu. I see GFS, Euro and EPS all have something now. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Guess HV and I been posting in wrong thread for Wed lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 The gefs is setting itself up to get burned yet again for the 20th time this season….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 6z Euro for Thursday us similar to Canadian just weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 NAM is a bit south, let's see if this thing jogs north In the final 48-72 hours as most storms have all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Where should this go? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022030706/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png How do I post images in my posts? 🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike W IN CNY Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Kbuf Quote On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs. snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 29 minutes ago, LUCC said: Where should this go? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022030706/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png How do I post images in my posts? 🤔 It opened it and put 10-13th, someone changed it but I'm just positing both the weds afternoon/Thursday event here with the weekend one because there isn't one for this event I don't belive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, LUCC said: Where should this go? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2022030706/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png How do I post images in my posts? 🤔 Same as other site, click reply then add files, then select the file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Amazing if this actually ends up a decent little 2-6" storm for the Northern Mid Atlantic that the CMC was first to pick it up vs all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) NAM looks like may be coming in slightly North and juicy. I definitely would not be shocked to see this make a decent jump north in the final days like most systems have trened in the final 48 hrs basically every time this year. I mean it's already done that but we still have a cpl days. Edited March 7, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 7, 2022 Author Share Posted March 7, 2022 Hi res Canadian 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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