Moderators StretchCT Posted March 4, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 4, 2022 Euro keeping us interested. Starting off with the 540 thickness line around the Mass Pike/I90 doesn't help many of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 Pretty much what I think for the rest of winter.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022030412/gfs_asnow_us_65.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 4, 2022 Author Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) 18z GFS trying to figure out how to handle two strong juicy systems, it actually wants to phase both of them on this run instead of keeping them separate, with the back to back storm idea most models have been advertising 18z GFS: Edited March 4, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 18z GFS ENS are fun to look at it, it's so stormy it just keeps snow over NYS for like 10 days straight lol. What an active juicy pattern, but the crazy part is they all seem so loaded up with moisture, a VERY juiced up pattern with big storms every day or 2. All we need is some cold in the East and we could really hit a big one or 2 or more, we just need a little more of a cold push. 18z Ens from the 9th-20th, just wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 18z GFS ENS are fun to look at it, it's so stormy it just keeps snow over NYS for like 10 days straight lol. What an active juicy pattern, but the crazy part is they all seem so loaded up with moisture, a VERY juiced up pattern with big storms every day or 2. All we need is some cold in the East and we could really hit a big one or 2 or more, we just need a little more of a cold push. 18z Ens from the 11th-20th Edit: won't let me load the gif I wanted to but here's the GFS ENS for the 11th: Edited March 5, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 12z EURO ENS: again very close to a snowstorm even down to NYC area, inland of course favored, but nice to see models showing a big boy storm or 2 with cold around, here's the 9th-10th. The 9th/10th storm looks decentish on the ENS both gfs and Euro woth the 850 line right around the NYC area at least for a good bit of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 12z Canadiam has a snowstorm to the coast on Wednesday/ Thursday the 9th/10th. Between the gfs, Canadian, and euro, they all have basically 2 big storms+, just through next weekend, but what day they occur and how they affect the region all vary. Models will struggle tremendously until we are much closer and can work out all the energy, potential phasing, track, timings, etc. This is not pattern they can handle well, with big storms all in quick succession of eachother, let alone trying to determine a rain/snow line area. Expect wild swings in the models until we get to or at least past the first wave on Monday. 12z Canadian 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 0z GFS 10th-13th: the 10th misses south, the 11th has a little snow swath for NYC into SENY & SNE, then the storm comes on the 12th-13th, rain to snow with big development once it reaches the SNE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 0z Canadian has another idea, and wants to make the system on the 9th and 10th come much farther north and being a snowstorm NVA, SC/EPA, NYC, LHV, SNE type areas the a washout with the follow up storm. Canadian fairly consistent wanting to make the wave on the 9th-10th a snowstorm for NYC general area. Edited March 5, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 0z GFS ENS interestingly have a similar look to the 0z CMC, with that snow in NVA up to PA, NYC area. Models have no idea what system to focus on, where the cold push will end up, and at what latitude the storms will be at etc. There's just too much going on for them to be able to give us a solid idea at this range until a few of the first waves pass through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 5, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 5, 2022 EPS has been steadily downplaying this. A few member so bring snow, but they are slowly fleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 Canadian 12z continues to show a snowstorm to the coast. It's alone, but it's been very consistent and it now has the snowstorm starting in 96 hrs, has snow starting on early Wednesday morning. Would be nice to see it get it right first for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 For comparison to see how huge of a difference these models are apart, this is same time Wednesday 1pm: CMC: GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 12z GFS ENS, Wednesday evening: Edited March 5, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 4 runs in a row now the CMC has this wave as a moderate Snowstorm from NVA,EPA,NYC,HV, into SNE. Last 4 runs snow axis starting with 4 runs ago to most recent. So this is a development as of 2 days ago, prior to these 4 runs, it did not have the storm. Just by looking at those maps over the last 4 runs you'd think we're trying to narrow down the axis of snow, not debating whether or not there will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: 4 runs in a row now the CMC has this wave as a moderate Snowstorm from NVA,EPA,NYC,HV, into SNE. Last 4 runs snow axis starting with 4 runs ago to most recent. So this is a development as of 2 days ago, prior to these 4 runs, it did not have the storm. Just by looking at those maps over the last 4 runs you'd think we're trying to narrow down the axis of snow, not debating whether or not there will be one. Yeah, GFS and Euro with a miss south of PA and weak/rain. Unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, GFS and Euro with a miss south of PA and weak/rain. Unfortunate. Thanks for joining my 1on1 convo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: Yeah, GFS and Euro with a miss south of PA and weak/rain. Unfortunate. It's been a crap winter for PA except for two weeks in January, so no reason to expect that to change now 😛 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 5, 2022 Author Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 18z GFS is miss south and offshore for wave on the 9th, the wave on the 10th Is the same, a miss (not coming up the coast). Then the wave on the 11th/12th has a LP form along it once the Artic front blasts through, and bring some snow to places in NVA, EPA, NY, & into New England. Anything could happen with any of these waves. Like I said the CMC shows a moderate sized snowstorm for 4 runs in a row now, GFS, EURO, IS just south of the area for the 9th/10th. So wouldn't take much to have it looks like the CMC. Either way temps would be marginal at the coast for sure. 18z GIF 9th-13th waves: Edited March 5, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Long range NAM looks like it'll jet stage right too. 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 0z GFS still hates this 3/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 0z CMC for storm on 9th to 10th. Gfs and Euro still have it just a miss south and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 6, 2022 Author Share Posted March 6, 2022 Hello 6z GFS for the 11th-13th: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 12z NAM is trying to provide hope for 3/10 farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 And 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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