GSWarriorbball11 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: No one updated for the GFS? Starting to look a little juicier overall. Think qpf is being underdone with the temperature gradient this will be riding? Actually maybe it is because it has colder air causing better ratios, overall qpf doesn't seem too different run to run. Edited March 11, 2022 by GSWarriorbball11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 Good point GSW - always look at the qpf to see what's driving it. Can also look at Kuchera (for a point in time) to see if the ratios are increasing further east (they are) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Looks like we just got issued a winter storm warning. Nice 52 degrees outside also Edited March 11, 2022 by so_whats_happening 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wsw was issued over night for the immediate area 4-7” with gusts as high as 40mph 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Well, yesterday 4-7" thoughts here still holding up, for now. Although, I would hedge on the lower end if the east trends are legit. Might not be our biggest storm of the season after all lol Gotta beat 5.5", looking sketchy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 My apologies if this has been posted already. Winter Storm Warning issued for what may be the entire BTV NWS coverage area. Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 VTZ001>009-011-016>019-112200- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0005.220312T0000Z-220313T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0006.220312T0300Z-220313T0600Z/ Grand Isle-Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden- Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Western Rutland- Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Eastern Rutland- Including the cities of Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Newport, Island Pond, Burlington, Johnson, Stowe, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Middlebury, Vergennes, Rutland, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton, East Wallingford, and Killington 325 AM EST Fri Mar 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph, mainly Saturday afternoon and night. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, northwest and southern Vermont. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow, possibly mixed with rain within the Champlain Valley, will begin overspread the region tonight. All precipitation will transition to snow by sunrise on Saturday. Periods of heavy snow will be possible late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon where snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour will be possible. Snow will taper off Saturday evening and come to an end Sunday morning. Gusty northwest winds between 25 and 40 mph will develop Saturday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. Blowing snow may develop and significantly reduce visibility across the region. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Please allow extra time if travel is necessary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Wow at RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Well, yesterday 4-7" thoughts here still holding up, for now. Although, I would hedge on the lower end if the east trends are legit. Might not be our biggest storm of the season after all lol Gotta beat 5.5", looking sketchy. Yea there was always that chance it would slide just enough east. We will see I wanna check 18z and 00z for consistency at this point. Think we are a bit too far east on some of the 12z runs. This may be close for us seeing our biggest snows of the season. Not hard to be 4" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 The 3K NAM has the pressure dropping to 928. I don't think it comes anywhere close to this but does this mean the latter part of the run is probably way off since the pressure output has greater than a 99% chance of not being correct? Or am I misreading the number? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2022 Y'all stole our storm. Lol. You better enjoy it! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: Y'all stole our storm. Lol. You better enjoy it! Haha. I’m sorry bro. Been a brutal winter up here in NEPA. We’re long overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, PA road DAWG said: Haha. I’m sorry bro. Been a brutal winter up here in NEPA. We’re long overdue I feel you, though I don't think anyone's ever called me bro. LOL. Glad someone who needs it is getting it. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: I feel you, though I don't think anyone's ever called me bro. LOL. Glad someone who needs it is getting it. 🙂 Haha gal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Y'all stole our storm. Lol. You better enjoy it! You can have it! Although the scenery will look nice so that is one positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Multispectral Infrared loop I only posted this because I wanted to use a big word and sound impressive 🥸 1 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Poco said: Multispectral Infrared loop I only posted this because I wanted to use a big word and sound impressive 🥸 So intellectual, lol! It's a super cool view, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, TheRex said: The 3K NAM has the pressure dropping to 928. I don't think it comes anywhere close to this but does this mean the latter part of the run is probably way off since the pressure output has greater than a 99% chance of not being correct? Or am I misreading the number? I would say it is off a little but it also only does 60 hours which is the super long range for it. Anything past 30 hours is out there for it so take it with a grain of salt same thing as looking at the 06/12/18/00z of the HRRR it goes to 48 but past 18 to 24 it gets rough. Signs of a very dynamic storm so watch that 850/925 to potentially crash in locations going from 992mb storm in NC to 964mb east of Maine in 12 hours via 12z Nam. That is some drop! The 12z GFS has it going about the same rate and sub 940mb off Newfoundland Labrador into the Labrador sea going potentially 927ish area? So in a span of 30 ish hours (12z Saturday to 18z Sunday when it closes off) it drops about 57mb via the GFS. Might have some thundersnow situations if these bands really get going near that boundary. I would watch NE PA and NW NJ with the terrain. As well as Western Mass Southern VT and NH region. This may be quite the thump coming. Posted the crude GFS 250mb jet progression and the more detail style of the Nam 250mb to show the jet coupling going on and getting better positioned. We down here get positioned just in the right spot to skip the potential dry slotting and jet enhancement as the storm rapidly deepens going into SNE. This is going to be a great satellite presentation! Edited March 11, 2022 by so_whats_happening 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Quote Might have some thundersnow situations if these bands really get going near that boundary. Good point - meteo Spring snows often do have T snow. In fact the first time I ever witnessed it was during an April event when I was still a Padawan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 16 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: I would say it is off a little but it also only does 60 hours which is the super long range for it. Anything past 30 hours is out there for it so take it with a grain of salt same thing as looking at the 06/12/18/00z of the HRRR it goes to 48 but past 18 to 24 it gets rough. Signs of a very dynamic storm so watch that 850/925 to potentially crash in locations going from 992mb storm in NC to 964mb east of Maine in 12 hours via 12z Nam. That is some drop! The 12z GFS has it going about the same rate and sub 940mb off Newfoundland Labrador into the Labrador sea going potentially 927ish area? So in a span of 30 ish hours (12z Saturday to 18z Sunday when it closes off) it drops about 57mb via the GFS. Might have some thundersnow situations if these bands really get going near that boundary. I would watch NE PA and NW NJ with the terrain. As well as Western Mass Southern VT and NH region. This may be quite the thump coming. Posted the crude GFS 250mb jet progression and the more detail style of the Nam 250mb to show the jet coupling going on and getting better positioned. We down here get positioned just in the right spot to skip the potential dry slotting and jet enhancement as the storm rapidly deepens going into SNE. This is going to be a great satellite presentation! To add on to this here is the Surface reflection at hr 27 on the Nam. You can see how the low wind speeds correlate to some of the heaviest precip. Air at this point in the upper levels is being rapidly removed and there is only one place the air can be taken from the lower levels this is the area of greatest lift. The thump area if you will. Wish I could get a skew T at hr 27 this would be the area of high omega and if the DGZ is correlated within that region usually anywhere from 700-400mb range it is thumping. I had posted the 6z 3km Nam earlier with the skew T. The problem with the more mesoscale models like 3km Nam and HRRR and HRDPS will be they tend to get really really convective in these situations and throw random hot spots that get focused on. That is what makes the 12km Nam fairly useful sometimes little bit of best of both worlds. Edited March 11, 2022 by so_whats_happening 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 NWS Pittsburgh updated totals. A small bump up from what they had earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: NWS Pittsburgh updated totals. A small bump up from what they had earlier. PM update from CTP keeps me hopeful of 6+... we shall see! Love the yellow orange maps. It's been a garbage winter of light blue and medium blue. 😆 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Hey there "SWH" - any insight as to why CTP has not updated their .gov main page? If you go there it's still information from 11 a.m. - have to go to Winter Product Page to see the text for the Warnings. Just curious Edited March 11, 2022 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Note the forecasters name OG Accu crew will recognize 😉 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) Uh oh Clapper - SREF let down alert - down again pretty much across the board in PA (only by an inch or so but...) Edited March 11, 2022 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Uh oh Clapper - SREF let down alert - down again pretty much across the board in PA (only by an inch or so but...) Was just coming on to report a decent drop in qpf on 15z.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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