Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: This looks like fun! Good omega in the DGZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSWarriorbball11 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) I know some are and aren't getting excited about how far east the NAM is, I will say, it is by the furthest east, and likely by a little too much. I think blending the NAM and other models is a safe bet for now... Edited March 11, 2022 by GSWarriorbball11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) I've got a 18" snow defecit - lets go NAM! Edited March 11, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 12z runs may just be a little too far east. We got the wiggles probably happening here. The ridge probably won't let this completely fold to the east but hey crazy things have happened. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, GSWarriorbball11 said: I know some are and aren't getting excited about how far east the NAM is, I will say, it is by the further east, and likely by a little too much. I think blending the NAM and other models is a safe bet for now... The HRRR agrees. And given how dynamic this system is I wouldnt rule out the hi res models being correct, not to mention everything has trended east model wide. This is the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 Riding the SREF roller coaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSWarriorbball11 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: The HRRR agrees. And given how dynamic this system is I wouldnt rule out the hi res models being correct, not to mention everything has trended east model wide. This is the hrrr It is def a possibility but I think it has the heaviest snow axis is too far SE. I think the FV3 for 12z looks like a good middle ground between the models. Edited March 11, 2022 by GSWarriorbball11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, GSWarriorbball11 said: It is def a possibility but I think it has the heaviest snow axis is too far SE. I think the FV3 for 12z looks like a good middle ground between the models. That's pretty much just as far east for the eastern edge. Basically Same as NAM and hrrr for eastern areas. Edited March 11, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 3k 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSWarriorbball11 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: That's pretty much just as far east for the eastern edge. Basically Same as NAM and hrrr for eastern areas. In PA the FV3 keeps the heavier snow from the Lehigh Valley through the Poconos, vs the HRRR and NAM have it from Philly to just south of the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 GFS v. GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, GSWarriorbball11 said: In PA the FV3 keeps the heavier snow from the Lehigh Valley through the Poconos, vs the HRRR and NAM have it from Philly to just south of the Lehigh Valley. Low placement is key as well as just how much the front is able to push east to set up for this low pressure to follow along. FV3 has the low pressure over SNJ where as the NAM has this offshore by about 50miles. Hence why we see the difference. FV3 has been trending east as well so it might not be out of the realm of possibilities to look like the NAM. Still think it is too much of a wiggle but we will see. Watch how the other 12z members do coming up. If I had to hedge my bets I would say a 12z FV3 look seems to be reasonable given ridging to the east being stronger usually then models have ( have seen it with several systems this year) this plays on the idea the front is slower to progress east which has been a thing most of this winter. Edited March 11, 2022 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 Im all for this being west btw lol bring on the west movement! I know I may get a beat down for this whoops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 11, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: 3k 12z NAM The 3km NAM has been spitting out some wonky surface pressure fields. Have to wonder if it's some convective feedback issues. I've noticed a few runs seen to have a feature in the low levels race out in front and pull some cold in ahead of the main system, likely erroneously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Just now, MaineJay said: The 3km NAM has been spitting out some wonky surface pressure fields. Have to wonder if it's some convective feedback issues. I've noticed a few runs seen to have a feature in the low levels race out in front and pull some cold in ahead of the main system, likely erroneously. I thought that too but I rather post and let others comment. ❄️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: The 3km NAM has been spitting out some wonky surface pressure fields. Have to wonder if it's some convective feedback issues. I've noticed a few runs seen to have a feature in the low levels race out in front and pull some cold in ahead of the main system, likely erroneously. This would be wonderful to see if the FV3 can correct this issue. Would be a nice thing for the new model coming out to predict these meso situations better! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSWarriorbball11 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Low placement is key as well as just how much the front is able to push east to set up for this low pressure to follow along. FV3 has the low pressure over SNJ where as the NAM has this offshore by about 50miles. Hence why we see the difference. FV3 has been trending east as well so it might not be out of the realm of possibilities to look like the NAM. Still think it is too much of a wiggle but we will see. Watch how the other 12z members do coming up. If I had to hedge my bets I would say a 12z FV3 look seems to be reasonable given ridging to the east being stronger usually then models have ( have seen it with several systems this year) this plays on the idea the front is slower to progress east which has been a thing most of this winter. Love the new GEFS metrics on pivotal vs having to go to college of Dupage site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, GSWarriorbball11 said: Love the new GEFS metrics on pivotal vs having to go to college of Dupage site. Been a long time since I have been on pivotal will have to check it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Is there a way insert an image using a URL or do I have to type in the tags? FV3 12z https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3-hires/2022031112/fv3-hires_ref_frzn_neus_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 28 minutes ago, GSWarriorbball11 said: It is def a possibility but I think it has the heaviest snow axis is too far SE. I think the FV3 for 12z looks like a good middle ground between the models. Ok maybe so for PA, I was looking more so for NY, CT area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 For giggles and grins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 11, 2022 Author Share Posted March 11, 2022 SREF MEAN expanded the snow SE and juiced it up nicely: 3z vs 9z 3z 9z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 11, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 12z GFS filling in the areas of eastern PA more and shaving a little off the western edge but is about the same. Still a sharp cutoff right around 95 it seems for Philly and NYC area. So looks like we may have a track that is similar enough to a FV3 situation where it crosses southern NJ. Northern VA and MD (west of 95) are going to be a tough call as too how quickly that can changeover to accumulate enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 This would be a surprise. Told my son in Philly 1-3 for him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 11, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 11, 2022 No one updated for the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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