Wtkidz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 And the less than inch expands in my backyard. We had nothing before…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Honestly wasn't expecting that after I saw what the Euro showed. The 12KM nam isn't too far off from the GFS for Allegheny County though. 6 to 8 is possible if things go right, but I won't be surprised if we only get three to five either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Yeah - riiiigggghhht 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 New SREF plumes are out, and for Pennsylvania specifically snow totals went up for everyone north and west of Blue Mountain but down for areas like Philly, Harrisburg, and Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Bradjl2009 said: New SREF plumes are out, and for Pennsylvania specifically snow totals went up for everyone north and west of Blue Mountain but down for areas like Philly, Harrisburg, and Allentown. Ummm - look above. Hbg is unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ummm - look above. Hbg is unchanged My mistake. Lower or unchanged then south and east of Blue Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 More rain for me in the 15z SREF, less qpf as well. Snow down from 4.5 to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) SREF Trend - yes its weird that the maps don't match the plumes. Edited March 10, 2022 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Winter Storm Watch posted for IMBY from Albany for heavy snow accumulation of 5-9". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM coming in soppin wet with QPF, depicting a slower solution (and deeper) than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I've done been NAMd 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I've done been NAMd NAM closer to what I actually expect for my region. 4-5" = no way. More like 1-2 sounds right for what Poco is calling a "glorified squall" situation (not his exact words, but close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: NAM closer to what I actually expect for my region. 4-5" = no way. More like 1-2 sounds right for what Poco is calling a "glorified squall" situation (not his exact words, but close) I've been thinking (and telling anyone that asks) 4-7" here. (Internally, I think upper end of that range, but I ain't trying to hype up friends or coworkers lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 18z NAM wants to gives us another storm with a cpl inches of sleet. This is definitely gonna be hard for models to nail down the border areas like IMBY, when the cold pushes east, how quickly the entire colum cools etc. I don't know if the sleet idea is realistic or not, but 18z NAM wants to make this primarily a sleet storm with a dusting of snow on top. IMBY... 12Z NAM=10", 18Z NAM=Dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I've been thinking (and telling anyone that asks) 4-7" here. (Internally, I think upper end of that range, but I ain't trying to hype up friends or coworkers lol) This seems a little more realistic lol. I'm wondering if the 12Z runs are as far east as the models will bring this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Long range 18z HRRR looks great for everyone from @JDClapper to IMBY and even SEPA, WCT, and more would probably get snow since thia only goes to 48 hr and it's still going past this gif. This would be ideal where it basically only gives SENY some light showers/ sprinkles before going over to snow. GIF ends at 1pm Saturday and like I said still going from EPA on east. Snow through hr 48 also below: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 The 3k NAM is better than the 12k NAM for eastern areas. Like the HRRR, it shows only an hour or 2 of light showers before changing over, however, it changes to a long period of sleet IMBY, just like the 12k NAM. The HRRR and the other models, outside of the NAM family, don't have this sleet issue. Does anyone with better knowledge than me, think this sleet is a likely scenario based on how this system is coming in with cold air rushing in from the west?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Not much change to the official forecast from CTP, but the max map is getting very orange. They hope the next couple cycles bring more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS ENS actually look very similar to the Euro: GFS ENS: Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 This would be something to remember.... though it seems the precip field is off. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 Define how much there is to plow - They literally plowed my wet road yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Define how much there is to plow - They literally plowed my wet road yesterday. If you lived in Virginia you'd be used to that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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