HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Beautiful 12Z Nam with an Eastern shift: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harley8778 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Heck, at the rate we're going I may actually get some snow out of this at my house. I was going to head up to my cabin in Mifflin County tomorrow night so I could see accumulating snow one more time. It would be much more convenient if I could stay home for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I dunno HV.. last night I jokingly said Congrats Delaware, but NAM trends have me wondering 🤔 😆 Haha In this case I want and eastern movement. You don't lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 12z RDPS a bit east again at 12z, moving closer and closer each run to NAM/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 SREF 6"+ axis probs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 GFS is a little northwest of where it was earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Gfs 12 z only this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 NAM looks very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 Using 10:1 for trend purposes only. Haven't really thought about ratios on this yet. Ukie shifted SE NAM is SE too but flatter as well - interesting. Canadian is SE RGEM is slightly SE GFS looked like it was going SE then the 12z run said, nope! I want to be the outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Beautiful 12Z Nam with an Eastern shift: I don't want to be a killjoy with the NAM but I've seen the NAM do this several times where it has the storm further east but then the storm hits further to the west. It has been good for me but no so much for the people in southern VT or northern MA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 3knam looks bullish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, TheRex said: I don't want to be a killjoy with the NAM but I've seen the NAM do this several times where it has the storm further east but then the storm hits further to the west. It has been good for me but no so much for the people in southern VT or northern MA. Yeah....that's happened a few times this year and speaks to this point from the Braatencast analysis from FB: 5) Southern convection leads to more latent heat release than models expect, which pumps heights ahead of the system and it becomes stronger and tracks further west. A final 24-hour near term westward trend occurs as models begin to resolve the amount of convection forming in the southeast US. The meso-scale models might be better realizing (or not realizing) the convective factor. Meanwhile UKie shows the opposite, pointed out by this remark in the same analysis and the fact this is a positively tilted trough: 4) The whole thing ends up weaker than expect and more progressive. Without a closed low, the moisture doesn't get advected back west as much as current models show. A more general moderate snowfall takes place, maybe with a more narrow band of heavier snow in NH/ME. It could also just be weak and progressive enough that no one really sees 12+ potential. Edited March 10, 2022 by telejunkie 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, TheRex said: I don't want to be a killjoy with the NAM but I've seen the NAM do this several times where it has the storm further east but then the storm hits further to the west. It has been good for me but no so much for the people in southern VT or northern MA. Yep. It literally just did this for yesterday's event 2 days out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Yeah....that's happened a few times this year and speaks to this point from the Braatencast analysis from FB: 5) Southern convection leads to more latent heat release than models expect, which pumps heights ahead of the system and it becomes stronger and tracks further west. A final 24-hour near term westward trend occurs as models begin to resolve the amount of convection forming in the southeast US. The meso-scale models might be better realizing (or not realizing) the convective factor. Meanwhile UKie shows the opposite, pointed out by this remark in the same analysis and the fact this is a positively tilted trough: 4) The whole thing ends up weaker than expect and more progressive. Without a closed low, the moisture doesn't get advected back west as much as current models show. A more general moderate snowfall takes place, maybe with a more narrow band of heavier snow in NH/ME. It could also just be weak and progressive enough that no one really sees 12+ potential. Sounds like the "Jax" rule! Haha Without hard data, can't prove it, but yeah, I feel like there always been more west/north surprises last minute than south/east. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Sounds like the "Jax" rule! Haha Without hard data, can't prove it, but yeah, I feel like there always been more west/north surprises last minute than south/east. I feel east trends can happen here and there with Miller A storms (which this isn't), but otherwise big storms generally come north and west, and this is going to be decently sized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 Going back to the NAM3k - it's a 979 low on the benchmark.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Sounds like the "Jax" rule! Haha Without hard data, can't prove it, but yeah, I feel like there always been more west/north surprises last minute than south/east. 😉 Without applying the "name" it does apply - and why I decided to initiate/mention it earlier. PGA is playing at TPC Sawgrass which is just above St Aug. in Florida (Just N of JAX) - they are in rain delay with some thunder even now and are wondering if they will get much in tomorrow due to the anticipated additional convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 47 minutes ago, telejunkie said: Yeah....that's happened a few times this year and speaks to this point from the Braatencast analysis from FB: 5) Southern convection leads to more latent heat release than models expect, which pumps heights ahead of the system and it becomes stronger and tracks further west. A final 24-hour near term westward trend occurs as models begin to resolve the amount of convection forming in the southeast US. The meso-scale models might be better realizing (or not realizing) the convective factor. Meanwhile UKie shows the opposite, pointed out by this remark in the same analysis and the fact this is a positively tilted trough: 4) The whole thing ends up weaker than expect and more progressive. Without a closed low, the moisture doesn't get advected back west as much as current models show. A more general moderate snowfall takes place, maybe with a more narrow band of heavier snow in NH/ME. It could also just be weak and progressive enough that no one really sees 12+ potential. The Professor has taken quite a beating this season - rumors are he's been hitting the sauce before work. Got a report of him falling badly in the parking lot several times in storm lead up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 10, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: The Professor has taken quite a beating this season - rumors are he's been hitting the sauce before work. Got a report of him falling badly in the parking lot several times in storm lead up I think even MDBR gave up on him...bounced him out of his bar. Been a rough year for many in the high-profile model world. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Yikes. This is starting to look more like a frontal passage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, TheRex said: I don't want to be a killjoy with the NAM but I've seen the NAM do this several times where it has the storm further east but then the storm hits further to the west. It has been good for me but no so much for the people in southern VT or northern MA. It's not just the NAM in the East camp ... it's now NAM, EURO, CANADIAN, UKMET, SREF, basically all vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 CMC joined the east team: 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 It's darkest before dawn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 CTP 10am update. Would imagine e the general moving east with heavier totals to continue on their PM update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: CTP 10am update. Would imagine e the general moving east with heavier totals to continue on their PM update. I imagine they'll expand the watches, but the more east it goes, the weaker it gets, so this could end up more like a widespread 3 to 6 inch event Edited March 10, 2022 by Bradjl2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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