Ukranian Conflict

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

   Anyone else think the Darya Dugina assassination was likely an inside job by the Russians?  It's kinda in the Putin handbook.

   Just pondering over the "why did they invade Ukraine", a major factor could've been it was a sort of marketing ploy.  To fund their military, they need to sell weapons. Although the oligarchs stealing all the money to build superyachts really undermined that.

  And touting the Kinzhal missile as some kind of "hypersonic super weapon" is really a stretch.  I mean, technically an ICBM goes hypersonic, as do other missiles.  

  Russia's military has always historically been way more bark than bite.

    

The Russian Military also want to reunite the old Soviet Union, but Ukraine is showing the world that they will never give in.

[MaineJay]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Russian Military also want to reunite the old Soviet Union, but Ukraine is showing the world that they will never give in.

I don't disagree. I think this is a main selling point to their citizens.  We are also seeing how the Russians relocated ethic Russians to the hinterlands to create enclaves.  Before the breakup, the thinking was that it would keep this states in the CCCP fold.  Now they are being used to justify invading sovereign nations, under the guise of "peacekeeping".

    Most of these, if not all, ex-Soviet republics are not really recognized by Russia.  There is a belief that they were always part of "Russia".  But in reality, these are have seen borders move regularly over the centuries.   It'd be like an Turkey saying they owned most of the Mediterranean because it was once the Ottoman empire.

[Cdfarabaugh]

On 8/24/2022 at 11:50 AM, MaineJay said:

   Anyone else think the Darya Dugina assassination was likely an inside job by the Russians?  It's kinda in the Putin handbook.

   Just pondering over the "why did they invade Ukraine", a major factor could've been it was a sort of marketing ploy.  To fund their military, they need to sell weapons. Although the oligarchs stealing all the money to build superyachts really undermined that.

  And touting the Kinzhal missile as some kind of "hypersonic super weapon" is really a stretch.  I mean, technically an ICBM goes hypersonic, as do other missiles.  

  Russia's military has always historically been way more bark than bite.

    

Like most things we will never know the truth.  It's much easier to be a conspiracy theorist than trust 'official sources' anymore.  

[MaineJay]

6 minutes ago, Cdfarabaugh said:

Like most things we will never know the truth.  It's much easier to be a conspiracy theorist than trust 'official sources' anymore.  

Depends on the conspiracy... Just ask Pat Tillman's family.

 

[Tater]

I heard an interesting perspective today. Didn't do any research, but it makes sense. Russia been heavily dependent on sales of oil and gas for a significant portion of its revenue. According to the source I was listening to (might have been Kyle Bass, but I don't remember), a significant portion of why the Soviet Union collapsed is because the US and Saudi Arabia worked together to drive crude prices down to where the Soviets couldn't finance their government any more.

Regardless of whether the above story is true, modern civilized live is absolutely dependent on energy. Cheap energy permeates every facet of our lives. Without abundant energy, likely all of us would die.

Europe was in an energy crisis in the fall of last year (six months before the Russians invaded Ukraine). Nothing has improved. They've had a year to expand local production (there are plenty of European states with access to shale gas, but few of them outside of Norway are doing anything about it) and done nothing but make things worse. Over half of France's aging nuclear fleet is shut down due to corrosion issues, and German politicians are intent on shutting down the last three nuclear reactors they have going. There isn't enough capacity to import enough LNG to meet their needs, even if they could get enough from the global LNG market (they can't). European leaders are so desperate for gas that they are importing LNG from China (China doesn't produce LNG - they buy it from the Russians, mark it up heavily, and sell it to the Europeans who "refuse to buy Russian gas"). They are firing coal plants at record rates, leading to record coal prices, but it's hard to import coal when drought conditions make your primary rivers too low for barges to pass. Wholesale electricity prices have gone up ten- to twenty-fold across much of Europe. 

Look at your own budget. Rents are up, food prices are up, interest rates are up, home and car prices are at nosebleed levels, gas prices are up, and wages are barely moving. Now imagine your electricity bill went from $200/month to $2,000/month. Imagine you are an industrial producer dependent on electricity or natural gas and the government tells you that you must shut down to conserve energy for households. You are forced lay off your workforce, who now cannot afford food, much less energy and rent. This isn't a pointless thought exercise: this is happening real-time, today, all across Europe. Putin has Europe over a barrel (or a pipeline), and he knows it.

I don't care what you think about Ukraine, Russia, or green energy (which has contributed to Europe's energy crisis). The fact is, Europe cannot function without Russian gas (plus they need their oil, coal, wheat, steel, and many other items). Europe is in a serious crisis, and it won't stop with just Europe.

Oh, yes. Remember how the Saudis allied with the Americans to crush the Soviets? (Maybe they did, maybe they didn't, but the fact is that the Saudis agreed 50 years ago to only price their oil in US dollars in return for US protection.) That's all gone. The Saudis have signed agreements with the Russians, are selling oil in currencies other than US dollars, and have snubbed US requests. China, India, Saudi Arabia, and numerous other nations are willing to work together to unseat the West's dominance in the global balance of power. The wealthy lifestyle that the West has become accustomed to is being jeopardized.

The Russian ruble is the best performing currency in the world. The Euro is very weak. Russia has waged economic war on Europe, and Russia is winning. Big-time.

Western media points at the shortcomings of Russia's excursions on the battlefield, but they miss a lot (likely deliberately). Russia is gaining territory (albeit at a snail's pace). Russia completely controls the airspace in Eastern Ukraine, which means that Ukraine's chances of successfully carrying out any major counter-offensives are nil. Ukrainians are in retreat, blowing up bridges as they fall back (winning armies don't blow bridges).

Russia and Ukraine had a tentative agreement in place in April. Boris Johnson paid Zelensky a visit, and a few days later the deal was scrapped. The Americans and the Europeans seem to think that Russia is doomed to fail, and the longer they wait the weaker Russia gets. That may be true, but Russia has all the natural resources it needs, and a decade of sanctions means they have most of the industry they need too. Europe can't function without Russian cooperation, and they are learning the hard way.

People are protesting all over Europe. From the hundreds of thousands signing up to the #Don'tPayUK movement to the 70,000 protestors in Prague over the weekend, Europe is a powderkeg with fuse lit. I'm not saying Putin doesn't have his own issues to deal with, but there is a 100% chance he can outlast the Europeans. This may or may not have been about Ukraine back in February, but it definitely is not now. This is about wresting control away from the West, and Russia is doing very well.

Europe is in a catastrophic situation. In our heavily globalized world, this will have ripple effects across the globe. The Japanese yen is imploding, China's real estate bubble is collapsing, much of the world is seeing runaway inflation, and leaders across the globe are doubling down on making everything worse. I don't think folks understand how bad this is going to get, or how long it will take to recover. And millions will never get the chance to recover.

Quote

It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong.

-Thomas Sowell

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Tater said:

I heard an interesting perspective today. Didn't do any research, but it makes sense. Russia been heavily dependent on sales of oil and gas for a significant portion of its revenue. According to the source I was listening to (might have been Kyle Bass, but I don't remember), a significant portion of why the Soviet Union collapsed is because the US and Saudi Arabia worked together to drive crude prices down to where the Soviets couldn't finance their government any more.

Regardless of whether the above story is true, modern civilized live is absolutely dependent on energy. Cheap energy permeates every facet of our lives. Without abundant energy, likely all of us would die.

Europe was in an energy crisis in the fall of last year (six months before the Russians invaded Ukraine). Nothing has improved. They've had a year to expand local production (there are plenty of European states with access to shale gas, but few of them outside of Norway are doing anything about it) and done nothing but make things worse. Over half of France's aging nuclear fleet is shut down due to corrosion issues, and German politicians are intent on shutting down the last three nuclear reactors they have going. There isn't enough capacity to import enough LNG to meet their needs, even if they could get enough from the global LNG market (they can't). European leaders are so desperate for gas that they are importing LNG from China (China doesn't produce LNG - they buy it from the Russians, mark it up heavily, and sell it to the Europeans who "refuse to buy Russian gas"). They are firing coal plants at record rates, leading to record coal prices, but it's hard to import coal when drought conditions make your primary rivers too low for barges to pass. Wholesale electricity prices have gone up ten- to twenty-fold across much of Europe. 

Look at your own budget. Rents are up, food prices are up, interest rates are up, home and car prices are at nosebleed levels, gas prices are up, and wages are barely moving. Now imagine your electricity bill went from $200/month to $2,000/month. Imagine you are an industrial producer dependent on electricity or natural gas and the government tells you that you must shut down to conserve energy for households. You are forced lay off your workforce, who now cannot afford food, much less energy and rent. This isn't a pointless thought exercise: this is happening real-time, today, all across Europe. Putin has Europe over a barrel (or a pipeline), and he knows it.

I don't care what you think about Ukraine, Russia, or green energy (which has contributed to Europe's energy crisis). The fact is, Europe cannot function without Russian gas (plus they need their oil, coal, wheat, steel, and many other items). Europe is in a serious crisis, and it won't stop with just Europe.

Oh, yes. Remember how the Saudis allied with the Americans to crush the Soviets? (Maybe they did, maybe they didn't, but the fact is that the Saudis agreed 50 years ago to only price their oil in US dollars in return for US protection.) That's all gone. The Saudis have signed agreements with the Russians, are selling oil in currencies other than US dollars, and have snubbed US requests. China, India, Saudi Arabia, and numerous other nations are willing to work together to unseat the West's dominance in the global balance of power. The wealthy lifestyle that the West has become accustomed to is being jeopardized.

The Russian ruble is the best performing currency in the world. The Euro is very weak. Russia has waged economic war on Europe, and Russia is winning. Big-time.

Western media points at the shortcomings of Russia's excursions on the battlefield, but they miss a lot (likely deliberately). Russia is gaining territory (albeit at a snail's pace). Russia completely controls the airspace in Eastern Ukraine, which means that Ukraine's chances of successfully carrying out any major counter-offensives are nil. Ukrainians are in retreat, blowing up bridges as they fall back (winning armies don't blow bridges).

Russia and Ukraine had a tentative agreement in place in April. Boris Johnson paid Zelensky a visit, and a few days later the deal was scrapped. The Americans and the Europeans seem to think that Russia is doomed to fail, and the longer they wait the weaker Russia gets. That may be true, but Russia has all the natural resources it needs, and a decade of sanctions means they have most of the industry they need too. Europe can't function without Russian cooperation, and they are learning the hard way.

People are protesting all over Europe. From the hundreds of thousands signing up to the #Don'tPayUK movement to the 70,000 protestors in Prague over the weekend, Europe is a powderkeg with fuse lit. I'm not saying Putin doesn't have his own issues to deal with, but there is a 100% chance he can outlast the Europeans. This may or may not have been about Ukraine back in February, but it definitely is not now. This is about wresting control away from the West, and Russia is doing very well.

Europe is in a catastrophic situation. In our heavily globalized world, this will have ripple effects across the globe. The Japanese yen is imploding, China's real estate bubble is collapsing, much of the world is seeing runaway inflation, and leaders across the globe are doubling down on making everything worse. I don't think folks understand how bad this is going to get, or how long it will take to recover. And millions will never get the chance to recover.

 

I do believe that the Russian Ruble will eventually collapse once again because of a catastrophic economic meltdown that will send shockwaves around the world.

 

EDIT: I forgot to mention that the main reason that Europe is in a potentially catastrophic energy crisis is because of their self-destructive energy policies.

Also, this might be a secret tactic that the Russians were waiting for: Wait until their enemies are severely weakened, then conquer them. But there is a problem to that and that is NATO, and the USA is the main superpower for NATO. If they attack a NATO nation, they'll be facing a superarmy of the MILLIONS!

And all of the anti-oil and anti-gas groups that are taking over Europe and harassing us? They are Pro-Russian who secretly want the Russians to win against Ukraine and what them to take over the world!

Edited September 5, 2022 by Iceresistance
More information

[Tater]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I do believe that the Russian Ruble will eventually collapse once again because of a catastrophic economic meltdown that will send shockwaves around the world.

Russia has been isolated by decades of sanctions, and they have been forced to build an economy that is largely self-sufficient. However, as the markets they export to implode, those markets won't be buying as much from the Russians. That will put a bunch of folks out of work and force a rebalancing of industry across Russia. Russia is also suffering from demographic problems, which isn't helping. The ruble has a history of devaluation (as do all fiat currencies), and it will likely eventually resume its inevitable march to zero.

Currencies usually collapse as governments try to use fiscal policy (ie printing currency) to paper over structural problems in the economy. This is happening all over the world, and I have little doubt it's occurring in Russia too. That said, for the forseeable future (which is about 3 minutes in today's world), Russia has a strong hand to play and will do comparatively better than places dependent on importing food and/or energy.

North America is in much better shape than much of the rest of the world since we have plenty of food and energy. However, we've fully embraced globalization and as industries collapse in foreign markets, supply chains are going to get even more broken than they already are. Our banking system died in 2008, but our leaders managed to paper it over. Things have gotten progressively worse and more distorted, and there needs to be a major shakeout and revaluation of many things across our economy. That's going to be a very painful process, and I don't think our government has a chance of steering us through that minefield (instead, they seem to be throwing more mines directly into our path).

[Iceresistance]

Ukraine is making HUGE advances in the eastern front! They already reclaimed a huge amount of territory that was taken by the Russians!

[Iceresistance]

The Russians are facing HUGE losses! The Ukrainian counterattack is going exceptionally well! Izium has been taken back from the Russians.

[MaineJay]

Someone needs to tell Tsar Vladimir that desperation is a stinky cologne.

[Iceresistance]

13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Someone needs to tell Tsar Vladimir that desperation is a stinky cologne.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was spectacular, now that have plans to take back the separatist nations and all of Ukraine. 

 

Russia really wants to use nukes against Ukraine, but it would backfire horribly because of the Jet Stream would push back all of the radioactive fallout back into Russia

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was spectacular, now that have plans to take back the separatist nations and all of Ukraine. 

 

Russia really wants to use nukes against Ukraine, but it would backfire horribly because of the Jet Stream would push back all of the radioactive fallout back into Russia

Here's creating discomfort amongst Russian citizens.

  Russia consists of many different groups, they certainly aren't a monolithic culture.  Putin is trying to send the most marginalized groups from poor regions.  There are reports they are even trying to conscript protestors.  Fighting morale will be even worse than what they have.

  He's to do it all "on the cheap", using decades old munitions that need to be destroyed anyway, so why not lob them at your neighbor.

  You got Chechens, you have a private military group, then there are the Russian speakers in the Donetsk and Luhansk who are now being told to fight in other regions, that's if there are many even left.

  There's so much tinder for infighting.  We are already seeing the blame game being played out, the next month is really going to be dynamic.

[Iceresistance]

Putin has ordered draft cards to all men in Russia, they're trying to flee to other European Nations to avoid going to this pointless war. 

[Iceresistance]

Russia has annexed 4 areas of Ukraine despite International condemnation of the botched elections. Ukraine is going to fight even harder. 

[MaineJay]

There

On 9/29/2022 at 4:56 PM, Iceresistance said:

Putin has ordered draft cards to all men in Russia, they're trying to flee to other European Nations to avoid going to this pointless war. 

 

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Russia has annexed 4 areas of Ukraine despite International condemnation of the botched elections. Ukraine is going to fight even harder. 

They are making sure to try and get the marginalized ethic groups to the front lines. They annexed to try and get those fighting age men to the front as well. The more "regular" soldiers will be behind them, threatening to shoot them if they try to retreat or surrender.

   Russia is losing a whole generation, maybe 2, of able bodied men. Some in body bags, the smart ones are just leaving.

   Russia's military doctrine is sending bodies to the front, that's a large reason they lost 26 million people in WWII. Yes they stopped the Germans, but maybe winter had something to do with it too.

  Then there's also the Battle of Tsushima, another low moment for the Russian military.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

There

 

They are making sure to try and get the marginalized ethic groups to the front lines. They annexed to try and get those fighting age men to the front as well. The more "regular" soldiers will be behind them, threatening to shoot them if they try to retreat or surrender.

   Russia is losing a whole generation, maybe 2, of able bodied men. Some in body bags, the smart ones are just leaving.

   Russia's military doctrine is sending bodies to the front, that's a large reason they lost 26 million people in WWII. Yes they stopped the Germans, but maybe winter had something to do with it too.

  Then there's also the Battle of Tsushima, another low moment for the Russian military.

China does want to get involved to replace the fallen Russians since Russia and China appeared to reunite for the first time in decades. But China is now scared to do so out of fear of provoking into WW3. 

If Russia successfully took Ukraine, they would keep going until they took all of the counties and reunite back into the Soviet Union. China would also become emboldened to attack Taiwan if that is the case.
Now, China appears to be too afraid to invade Taiwan because of what is happening to Russia in Ukraine, and out of fear that they would be facing the exact same thing. 

There appears to be a small, but legit chance that Putin will use Nuclear weapons in Ukraine because he is seriously backed into a corner and will fight even nastier. 

[MaineJay]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

China does want to get involved to replace the fallen Russians since Russia and China appeared to reunite for the first time in decades. But China is now scared to do so out of fear of provoking into WW3. 

If Russia successfully took Ukraine, they would keep going until they took all of the counties and reunite back into the Soviet Union. China would also become emboldened to attack Taiwan if that is the case.
Now, China appears to be too afraid to invade Taiwan because of what is happening to Russia in Ukraine, and out of fear that they would be facing the exact same thing. 

There appears to be a small, but legit chance that Putin will use Nuclear weapons in Ukraine because he is seriously backed into a corner and will fight even nastier. 

I think China is happy to see Russia weakened. This could further open the door to Russia's vast natural resources, which I'm sure China covets. It fits in with the belt and road initiative they have been pursuing.

[Iceresistance]

Oh no, Russia may be preparing its society for a Nuclear War against Ukraine. 

[Tater]

Saying that Putin is about to use nukes strikes me as fear-mongering. Putin has shown remarkable restraint in his "special operation" and has left the door wide open for negotiations (but on his terms). He has clearly telegraphed most of his steps along the way, rarely making major surprise moves. There are a lot of steps left before nukes "need" to enter the picture.

What would I do if I were Putin and felt I were backed into corner? Using nukes is a poor option because that risks retaliation in kind, plus the fallout is going to blow right over my own population as well as the land I want to conquer. Plus it shows I've run out of options, and I never want to show that.

Instead, I've got to eliminate Europe as a threat so I can focus on the real threat - the US. That can easily be done by destroying their energy infrastructure. Fortunately the Europeans are highly dependent on natural gas, much of which I supply through Ukrainian, Polish, and Turkish pipelines as well as secondary LNG market. First, I'll forbid sales to anyone who resells our gas to the enemy. Second, I'll formally shut down all Russian pipelines into Europe until further notice. Third, I'll utilize my submarine force to eliminate the LNG import terminals. Fourth I'll do what I can to destroy gas pipelines around Europe. Fifth, I'll try to hit substations controlling power into or out of major refineries, coal plants, or nuclear reactors (I don't need to destroy the reactor: just make it useless) all around Europe, but especially in Germany, UK, and France. I don't have the capability to take them all offline, to be sure, but their own energy policies have already put them in such dire circumstances that even half of my planned destruction will put most of Europe back into the dark ages.

Meanwhile, I'll continue to keep cheap gas and oil flowing to my allies. I'll work with OPEC+, especially the Saudis who have been extremely receptive to me recently, and I'll ensure my friends have industries that continue while my enemies will struggle with lack of energy. With China, India, and Saudi Arabia supporting me, I'll be able to survive. In an energy crisis, the rest of Asia, Japan especially, will become increasingly dependent on Russian energy and will be forced to spurn the Americans who will not have enough to energy to supply them. South America will be heavily courted by the US, but bridges have already been burned there and the relationships that I've built should at least dilute US influence and may in some cases displace it.

I can't beat the Americans in their hemisphere, but I can limit their advances in my own. China needs my resources, and I need their access to world markets. Life will be hard for my people as these major world shifts happen, but it has always hard for my people. This gives us the best chance at being treated fairly. The Americans are in for a rude awakening as the weakening of their reserve currency status and their lack of investment into producing the stuff of life causes their standard of living to plummet. Now they can have a taste of their own medicine. And Europe can dry up and blow away if they continue to sacrifice themselves for the Americans at the expense of my precious soldiers.

[Iceresistance]

Ukraine has taken back Kherson

[Iceresistance]

This is really bad, Poland has been bombed by Russia. Only time will tell if it was intentional or not.

[Sentinel]

On 11/15/2022 at 4:53 PM, Iceresistance said:

This is really bad, Poland has been bombed by Russia. Only time will tell if it was intentional or not.

It appears as if they are blaming this on an errant missile from Ukraine. 

Whether true or not - it is good that Western Countries are pursuing this theory. 

I highly doubt Russia would hit Poland, especially on purpose. That is a war no one wants - including Putin.