Ukranian Conflict

[1816]

Feels like too little too late. But better than nothing. I think the Ukrainians are deserving of our help.  More deserving than some others we have tried to help

👀 @ you afghanistan 

Ukraine doesn't want Russia in their lives. Obviously. 

[minorgrey]

Wonder if that means Poland will be handing over migs right away or if they're going to wait for us to deliver them F-22s.  Kinda running out of time so I hope they just deliver the migs asap. 

[1816]

6 minutes ago, minorgrey said:

Wonder if that means Poland will be handing over migs right away or if they're going to wait for us to deliver them F-22s.  Kinda running out of time so I hope they just deliver the migs asap. 

I believe we didn't always fulfill our end of the bargain on dealings with Poland in the past.  They probably want the fighters in hand before they move the migs. Can't say I blame them. 

[Psu1313]

2 hours ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

Thoughts?

I'm not sure I understand the reply by gstithem. Do they really think American pilots are going to fly those planes? 

Mind you, I'm not sure how they expect to transfer these planes and protect them. Russia will figure out where they are and launch strikes at whatever airbase they are being housed at.

[1816]

15 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

I'm not sure I understand the reply by gstithem. Do they really think American pilots are going to fly those planes? 

Mind you, I'm not sure how they expect to transfer these planes and protect them. Russia will figure out where they are and launch strikes at whatever airbase they are being housed at.

We transfer our planes to Poland. They can fly anything and they have time. Ukraine gets migs from Poland that they already know how to use. 

Edit: see you know that. Not sure why gstithem doesn't know. 

Edited March 6, 2022 by 1816

[FortySixAnd32]

57 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

I'm not sure I understand the reply by gstithem. Do they really think American pilots are going to fly those planes? 

Mind you, I'm not sure how they expect to transfer these planes and protect them. Russia will figure out where they are and launch strikes at whatever airbase they are being housed at.

I wasn't concerned with the reply. Some people can't figure out what time of day it is even though they have 2 chances. I was asking about the transfer of planes. 

[Tater]

I would not believe anyone saying that Migs are going to Ukraine until the country that owns them says so. Rumors have been flying for days about this, and so far all the countries claimed to be supplying these fighter jets have denied any intentions of doing so.

These countries don't have enough for their own security, much less some to spare. These jets will be fodder for Russia's anti-aircraft systems as I'm sure their S-400/500 systems are very efficient at destroying the Russian-made Migs.

This is a ground battle. Both sides have extensive anti-aircraft capabilities, so the chances of a successful air campaign are limited (I suspect only the Russians can do so, particularly in eastern Ukraine, and even that is likely to face substantial losses).

[MaineJay]

For Russia, what is easier, winning the war or occupying a nation of 43 million?  

[1816]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

For Russia, what is easier, winning the war or occupying a nation of 43 million?  

I'm going with none of the above

[Psu1313]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

For Russia, what is easier, winning the war or occupying a nation of 43 million?  

How do you define winning the war? Is it big power politics that HV believes in where Russia reshapes Ukraine in its image and recognizes Crimea as part of Russia? Is it the taking of the Donbas region? Is it conquering the entire country?

[Tater]

I suggest y'all watch this. I am generally interested in actively avoiding watching TV, but this was recommended to me and it was a very good segment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PC7DzTRS7A

You are watching history unfold on a scale you could scarcely have imagined three months ago. I suspect the ramifications of what is happening in geopolitics leads to a world that is entirely different from the world you are used to.

You are watching the West, led by incompetent or downright malevolent leaders, commit economic suicide.

This "crisis" in Ukraine was completely avoidable, as it was predicted by numerous geopolitical experts many years, even decades, ago. Yet the "McCarthyism" in the West has intensified to the point where our leaders, for a generation, have refused to make intelligent decisions. This is culminating in some of the most outrageous decisions you can imagine.

First of all, the weaponization of the financial system is how you kill reserve currency status. This has been predicted by many, and yet our politicians refuse to acknowledge it. Our central bank, the Federal Reserve, (the guys we pay to control our currency) was not consulted about this, and they are distancing themselves from the policy actions made by the government. Every country is taking note of this and many will be using alternative currencies to store reserves and conduct foreign trade (this is actually probably good for world trade, but it's bad news for anyone who holds and uses dollars regularly).

Second, currency is not wealth. Goods, particularly energy, and knowledge are wealth. We are cutting off Russia's banking ability and refusing to buy their oil. That hurts us, not them. They still have the oil, and we have the paper or digits on a screen. Russian prices inside the country are stable. They have more food, fertilizer, energy, nickel, steel, etc than they know what to do with. That's wealth. The West is very quickly realizing that it doesn't have enough energy, food, fertilizer, etc, and prices are escalating rapidly (and they will go much higher if this madness doesn't stop). Wait til European's energy prices have doubled from their already extreme levels and they stay there. What happens when US energy prices triple and stay there? Food prices could go up by multiples. That will result in a massive recession as the Western economy goes into a massive realignment. Suddenly that service economy that the West is famous for will go off the rails. Jobs will be lost, people will do more things for themselves and the government will get much less tax revenue, leading to the welfare state imploding. The potential repercussions of what could be coming are absolutely mind-numbing. 

Thirdly, we are severing diplomatic ties and removing our media sources from Russia. If we are at war, how do we win by surrendering the propaganda battlefield immediately?! We are cutting off services for everyday Russians, which the government propagandists can immediately spin as the West hating Russians. This is all to Russia's advantage.

The epitome of our leadership's stupidity is that we are begging the Iranians to supply us with oil. But remember that we don't have a seat at the table in Iranian negotiations. Who are we relying on to help us out? Oh, yes, the folks we are at war against, the Russians. Do you remember the US assassination of Iranian military leader Soleimani? Pepperidge farm remembers, and so do the Iranians. They aren't here to help us.

I could rant for hours about the idiocy our leadership has made. I can't tell if it's incompetence or deliberate sabotage or both or neither, but I don't like any of the explanations I have seen so far. I also don't see it getting any better any time soon. (Some say that the November election will help, but (1) there is a lot of time to do a lot of damage between now and then and (2) the Republicans never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

As Tucker brought up in the above clip, why is the media covering this Ukraine crisis so much more than other even worse crises around the world? There is an underlying agenda here somewhere.

The media is happy to tell you about the war we are in with Russia. However, they give an extremely one-sided view and often obvious misinformation. Our leadership is likely getting this same info, and will no doubt make huge miscalculations since they are based on deliberate deception by those pushing a particular narrative.

There is no doubt we are at war with Russia, as Tucker said. So far that war has been economic rather than kinetic (except for the unfortunate few in the crossfire in Ukraine). This isn't about Ukraine. This is about the West vs Russia (and not just Russia, but also China and likely quite a few others). There is one critical detail that many folks don't yet realize about this war:

So far, Russia is WINNING!

[Tater]

Quote

"The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America."

This is an official statement on the gov.pl website.

I'm a cynic, and I always comb statements for weasel words and implied comments for target audiences. I interpret the above statement as the following: "Mr. Putin, we understand the threats you have made against anyone helping Ukraine. We tried to stand down, but the USA made us an offer we could not refuse. Please understand that this all the United States, not us."

There has been a pattern going on. Germany refused to sign onto shutting down Russia's access to SWIFT. The US applied pressure, and Germany buckled. Various countries refused to stop acquiring Russian oil and gas, but the US kept up the pressure and they are starting to fold. Poland refuted the idea that they were sending Migs to Ukraine, but the US applied pressure and got them to sign the Migs over to the US.

There is a faction of the US that wants a hot war with Russia. There was a proxy war in Ukraine for eight years, but that wasn't good enough. The proxy war ended when Russia invaded Ukraine (the "proxy" ended, not the "war"). Now the US is trying to get WW3 going, and I suspect they'll succeed.

Prepare accordingly.

[Iceresistance]

2 hours ago, Tater said:

I suggest y'all watch this. I am generally interested in actively avoiding watching TV, but this was recommended to me and it was a very good segment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PC7DzTRS7A

You are watching history unfold on a scale you could scarcely have imagined three months ago. I suspect the ramifications of what is happening in geopolitics leads to a world that is entirely different from the world you are used to.

You are watching the West, led by incompetent or downright malevolent leaders, commit economic suicide.

This "crisis" in Ukraine was completely avoidable, as it was predicted by numerous geopolitical experts many years, even decades, ago. Yet the "McCarthyism" in the West has intensified to the point where our leaders, for a generation, have refused to make intelligent decisions. This is culminating in some of the most outrageous decisions you can imagine.

First of all, the weaponization of the financial system is how you kill reserve currency status. This has been predicted by many, and yet our politicians refuse to acknowledge it. Our central bank, the Federal Reserve, (the guys we pay to control our currency) was not consulted about this, and they are distancing themselves from the policy actions made by the government. Every country is taking note of this and many will be using alternative currencies to store reserves and conduct foreign trade (this is actually probably good for world trade, but it's bad news for anyone who holds and uses dollars regularly).

Second, currency is not wealth. Goods, particularly energy, and knowledge are wealth. We are cutting off Russia's banking ability and refusing to buy their oil. That hurts us, not them. They still have the oil, and we have the paper or digits on a screen. Russian prices inside the country are stable. They have more food, fertilizer, energy, nickel, steel, etc than they know what to do with. That's wealth. The West is very quickly realizing that it doesn't have enough energy, food, fertilizer, etc, and prices are escalating rapidly (and they will go much higher if this madness doesn't stop). Wait til European's energy prices have doubled from their already extreme levels and they stay there. What happens when US energy prices triple and stay there? Food prices could go up by multiples. That will result in a massive recession as the Western economy goes into a massive realignment. Suddenly that service economy that the West is famous for will go off the rails. Jobs will be lost, people will do more things for themselves and the government will get much less tax revenue, leading to the welfare state imploding. The potential repercussions of what could be coming are absolutely mind-numbing. 

Thirdly, we are severing diplomatic ties and removing our media sources from Russia. If we are at war, how do we win by surrendering the propaganda battlefield immediately?! We are cutting off services for everyday Russians, which the government propagandists can immediately spin as the West hating Russians. This is all to Russia's advantage.

The epitome of our leadership's stupidity is that we are begging the Iranians to supply us with oil. But remember that we don't have a seat at the table in Iranian negotiations. Who are we relying on to help us out? Oh, yes, the folks we are at war against, the Russians. Do you remember the US assassination of Iranian military leader Soleimani? Pepperidge farm remembers, and so do the Iranians. They aren't here to help us.

I could rant for hours about the idiocy our leadership has made. I can't tell if it's incompetence or deliberate sabotage or both or neither, but I don't like any of the explanations I have seen so far. I also don't see it getting any better any time soon. (Some say that the November election will help, but (1) there is a lot of time to do a lot of damage between now and then and (2) the Republicans never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.

As Tucker brought up in the above clip, why is the media covering this Ukraine crisis so much more than other even worse crises around the world? There is an underlying agenda here somewhere.

The media is happy to tell you about the war we are in with Russia. However, they give an extremely one-sided view and often obvious misinformation. Our leadership is likely getting this same info, and will no doubt make huge miscalculations since they are based on deliberate deception by those pushing a particular narrative.

There is no doubt we are at war with Russia, as Tucker said. So far that war has been economic rather than kinetic (except for the unfortunate few in the crossfire in Ukraine). This isn't about Ukraine. This is about the West vs Russia (and not just Russia, but also China and likely quite a few others). There is one critical detail that many folks don't yet realize about this war:

So far, Russia is WINNING!

I really don't want to talk about it here, but I ran out of choices.

The current Administration is absolutely refusing to increase oil production for us, which is only making things worse.

I forgot to add this: In the 1930s, the Great Depression started in America, then it exploded worldwide in a cascading domino effect, the next monster rescission that is being predicted could do the same thing . . . But only time will tell if that's the case

Edited March 8, 2022 by Iceresistance
Forgot to add

[1816]

1 minute ago, Iceresistance said:

I really don't want to talk about it here, but I ran out of choices.

The current Administration is absolutely refusing to increase oil production for us, which is only making things worse.

Yeah. We shouldn't need any help with energy, food, fertilizer, or any other damn thing you can name. We should be able to do it all ourselves if we hadn't lost all of our means of doing so long ago. Maybe it's time to rediscover self sufficiency. If that means no iPhone I'm ok with that. We can do without caviar or whatever other shit people eat that's imported. We can do meat and potatoes again. 

[MaineJay]

Too many what ifs going on.  I think that there are too many armchair generals making wide ranging, highly speculative claims that cannot be proven.  If this person had done XYZ, then ABC wouldn't have happened. It's all confirmation bias to the worst degree. The more definitive a person takes about the situation, the less they likely know.  

  Too many "hot takes" that are just trying to rile people up with hyperbole.  There are way too many complexities going on here.  You have decades old grievances, mixing with a rapidly changing global landscape. I suggest taking a step back and not creating so many paradigms that are hard to break. 

[Organicforecasting]

Hopefully we figure something out in the next 48hrs.

 

 

[Organicforecasting]

16 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I really don't want to talk about it here, but I ran out of choices.

The current Administration is absolutely refusing to increase oil production for us, which is only making things worse.

I forgot to add this: In the 1930s, the Great Depression started in America, then it exploded worldwide in a cascading domino effect, the next monster rescission that is being predicted could do the same thing . . . But only time will tell if that's the case

Our production has steadily increased since the COVID drop. If not for that drop, we would have been in worse shape because with the number of drivers crashing with virtual work, our supply would have been too much and the recession would have started even sooner. One good thing to watch is the live chart option on the first link shows crude is dropping in price today. Hopefully the trend will continue.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS1&f=M

Also, please note the export chart and match the production with the month. Out of 11,600 barrels per day, we are exporting 7,453 barrels per day.

There's so much more going into this than either side is telling us. 

The Bureau of Land Management has an amazing site that you can download data from here. Please look at the number of permits granted per year from the site below.

 

 

This site goes beyond the FY20 option above. We have just over 9000 permits open and approved for drilling as of Dec'21.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Organicforecasting

[Tater]

The Afghanistan debacle showed that the US foreign policy and military has no leadership and no one that takes responsibility. The Poland aircraft dance proved it.

The Europeans are relying on the US, but there is no one in the US in charge of making decisions. It seems to me that the Germans or the Brits or someone needs to take over (it is their problem, after all) and start telling the US what to do. That's obviously a little sticky when you are reliant on the US military (particularly their nuclear capabilities) for your national security, but you have to take extreme measures in a leadership crisis.

That's how it looks to this armchair expert, anyhow. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Tater

[Organicforecasting]

3 minutes ago, Tater said:

The Afghanistan debacle showed that the US foreign policy and military has no leadership and no one that takes responsibility. The Poland aircraft dance proved it.

The Europeans are relying on the US, but there is no one in the US in charge of making decisions. It seems to me that the Germans or the Brits or someone needs to take over (it is their problem, after all) and start telling the US what to do. That's obviously a little sticky when you are reliant on the US military (particularly their nuclear capabilities) for your national security, but you have to take extreme measures in a leadership crisis.

That's how it looks to this armchair expert, anyhow. 

We have played this tit for tat game for years and it doesn't matter which administration it is. Iran-Contra anyone? 

I believe the Chernobyl situation might raise the ante on our involvement. Our hands are tied when it comes to direct involvement because of Ukraine's non-membership status in NATO, but now that there is an ecological disaster in the making we need to take notice.

On a side note, I'm quite concerned about Republican members of Congress retweeting Russian state television as if it's gospel.

[Tater]

20 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

...it doesn't matter which administration it is.

Absolutely. Our military has become its own beast, unaccountable to anyone.

22 minutes ago, Organicforecasting said:

I'm quite concerned about 𝚁̶𝚎̶𝚙̶𝚞̶𝚋̶𝚕̶𝚒̶𝚌̶𝚊̶𝚗̶ members of Congress.

I'm concerned about them too. All 535 of them. How do the most incompetent Americans all end up elected to office? I'm pretty certain our local librarian could govern more effectively than most of these folks.

Perhaps this is all part of the fourth turning.  According to that concept, there's gonna be a rough patch ahead, but that should bring out some new leaders and force us to find our way again.

[1816]

34 minutes ago, Tater said:

Absolutely. Our military has become its own beast, unaccountable to anyone.

I'm concerned about them too. All 535 of them. How do the most incompetent Americans all end up elected to office? I'm pretty certain our local librarian could govern more effectively than most of these folks.

Perhaps this is all part of the fourth turning.  According to that concept, there's gonna be a rough patch ahead, but that should bring out some new leaders and force us to find our way again.

When the constitution was written serving in congress was a burden undertaken as patriotic service, it wasn't a career path with a lucrative salary and opportunity to be a multimillionaire. In the early days, people lost money when they went to washington. Their farms were neglected. Term limits are probably the closest thing to an answer but they'll never pass it since it isn't in their interest. 

[Organicforecasting]

Fresh off the press...

 

Quote

As oil prices surge to the highest levels since 2008, Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub said U.S. producers cannot increase output right away.

“We’re in a really dire situation,” she said Tuesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global. “We’ve never faced a scenario where we need to grow production, when actually supply chains not only in our industry but every industry in the world [are] being impacted by the pandemic.”

U.S producers were largely expecting to keep production flat this year, and in the face of surging crude prices, output can’t just be ramped up right away, Hollub said. 

“Now, with supply chain challenges, it makes any kind of attempt to grow now — and at a rapid pace — very, very difficult,” she said.

Production in the oil-rich Permian Basin is back around its pre-pandemic peak, according to Hollub, who noted the region faces significant challenges in boosting output. It’s the only shale basin in the U.S. that can increase production, she said.

 

[Organicforecasting]

Oil dropped 13.2% today to just under $110/barrel after this news...

 

[Tater]

2 hours ago, Organicforecasting said:

Oil dropped 13.2% today to just under $110/barrel after this news...

There was also news from Libya that some of their production that was taken offline last week has been restored.

Futures markets are weird things, and much of the raw materials our economy relies on is priced via a paper market of speculation rather than strict supply/demand. Thus, after going straight up for over a week, it was time for a breather and time for the paper traders to book some profits helped out by some "negative" headlines.

I think the fundamentals support higher prices for the intermediate term, but longer term will see demand destruction as well as increased supply both from the US and around the world. Furthermore, much of the Russian oil will find its way to market, though it may go to different buyers (ie China and India) or through intermediaries. It will take time to adjust though.

I hope this supply shock (for all sorts of things, not just oil and gas) can be a springboard to saner energy policy going forward. We need to be pursuing sustainable long-term alternatives to oil and gas as the world's reserves get depleted. There has been far too much emphasis on solar and wind which cannot replace fossil fuels due to their intermittent nature (though there is a role for them). We need more investment in nuclear, thorium, fuel cells, and so forth, and we also need a realistic look at the materials needed for the replacements of oil and gas (the market for nickel literally broke as the London Metals Exchange shut down trading due to the price going up fourfold in days and bankrupting producers that had hedged their nickel supply). For years folks have assumed that we can just go get more nickel, lithium, copper, etc, not realizing the decades it takes to find deposits, get permits, and build a mine. Infinite scalability only applies in software.

I've been concerned that we're gonna sleepwalk into a world that suddenly is drastically short of oil without a good replacement (the "green" revolution is dependent on many items that must be mined with diesel equipment). I think that this may be the wakeup call some folks needed to make the necessary changes to the world's energy policies.

Our world depends on oil. I seriously doubt that the world as it stands can support more than one billion people without oil. But that can be changed.

[MaineJay]

So the Ukrainians blow up a fuel depot in Russia and the Russians say that might hinder peace talks?  The "Russian entitlement" they are displaying here is laughable. 

  Now they want the Arctic to be "free of conflict". This is another lie, as they have very ambitious goals in the Arctic.

  Russia's military looks inept, and without nukes, doesn't appear to be very formidable.  It's like their athletics programs, based on lies, and banned substances.

  Only a later of time before Russia kills a bunch of it's own people and blames it on Ukraine. This was Putin's playbook in Chechnya as he ascended to power.

  I feel bad for the duped Russian people, they will pay the price for Putin's heartless hubris.