cloudy_jake Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Nice storm development moving into Hamilton county. Went up quickly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) I've got a bad feeling about today. Hope I'm wrong but HRRR has been really consistent today which isn't a good sign. Shear is gonna be very strong and very favorable for supercells/tornadoes, so what's left is storm mode and instability. With this kind of shear, you really only need 1000-1500 sbcape/~1000 mlcape to get some serious tornadoes. I think that's pretty reasonable. Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I've got a bad feeling about today. Hope I'm wrong but HRRR has been really consistent today which isn't a good sign. Shear is gonna be very strong and very favorable for supercells/tornadoes, so what's left is storm mode and instability. With this kind of shear, you really only need 1000-1500 sbcape/~1000 mlcape to get some serious tornadoes. I think that's pretty reasonable. Uh oh. I don't like when you talk like that. Means bad times for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 6, 2022 SPC made some changes to the day 1 outlook... sounds like the cold air in S MO is more stubborn than thought... but they also expanded the enhanced risk for tornadoes south and southwest. HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE, FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND NO CHANGE WAS MADE. 1A.) ADJUSTED THE NORTHERN BOUND OF THE ENHANCED RISK (30 WIND AND 10 SIGTOR) TO THE SOUTH BY ABOUT 1 COUNTY TIER TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONS AND COLD AIR THAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. 1B.) ADJUSTED THE 10 SIGTOR FARTHER SOUTHWEST TO IMMEDIATELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORT SMITH VICINITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE THE FAVORABLE AREA FOR A STRONG TORNADO WOULD ALSO INCLUDE MORE OF PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) 70/50 tor probs 😬 Edited March 6, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Storms starting to fire in arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Could be first of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cincysnow said: Could be first of the day Next few scans dont look very impressive, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Micro supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Micro supercell That thing is TINY! This is a LPS (Low Precipitation Supercell) Right now & I bet that the Wall cloud is highly visible with the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 There's one north of Little Rock that's trying to develop a hook/couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Radarscope down for anyone else or just on my end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Just now, Cincysnow said: Radarscope down for anyone else or just on my end? Down for me too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) 21z LZK sounding is erroneous... dew point isn't 68 degrees... more like 64-65 degrees. Causes CAPE to be overestimated. Other than that, the inversion just above 700mb might be causing the issues the cells have faced so far. Very strong deep-layer shear is there, as well as sufficient directional shear for supercells. From my estimation... LCL is more accurately around 1km with a ~65 degree dew point rather than the 573m shown here. That's a pretty big difference and has a big impact on cape. Would make that inversion look more impactful than this. Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Down for me too Switch to NOAA radar in settings and don't use SuperRes. 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, Michelle said: Switch to NOAA radar in settings and don't use SuperRes. 😉 Doesn't work for me either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 6, 2022 That supercell in SW AR is growing in size and may go tornado warned again soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 minute ago, OKwx_2001 said: Doesn't work for me either Weird. I'm using Digital Reflectivity and it's okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 SPC says the inversion should weaken allowing storms to really get going over the next couple of hours. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022 Areas affected...Portions of AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 33... Valid 062144Z - 062315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 33 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat, including the potential for a few tornadoes, should focus across parts of Arkansas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The VWP from KSRX (Ft. Smith, AR) has shown a marked increase in the strength of the low-level winds in the lowest 2 km AGL over the past couple of hours. 0-1 km shear based on the most recent KSRX VWP is around 40 kt, with deep-layer shear in excess of 60 kt. Current expectations are for the low-level shear to further increase across much of AR late this afternoon and early evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens to 45-50+ kt. Continued low-level warm/moist advection to the south of a front and diurnal heating are supporting MLCAPE generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. A 21Z special sounding from LZK shows that an inversion centered near 640 mb has eroded/weakened some since 12Z. This inversion has probably hindered robust supercell development across the warm sector so far this afternoon, but it is forecast to continue eroding over the next few hours as cooler mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with a shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains overspread this region. As this process occurs, storms should strengthen across parts of western into central and northern AR. Tornadoes will be possible with any supercell that can develop and be sustained. A strong tornado appears possible as effective SRH increases into the 250-350+ m2/s2 range, especially by early evening. Isolated large hail may also occur given the mainly discrete storm mode, degree of instability, and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Radarscope is back up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 I'm hearing Radar Scope is back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 Cell south of booneville arkansas starting to get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 6, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 6, 2022 Confirmed tornado in NE AR somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 6, 2022 Share Posted March 6, 2022 (edited) Radarscope is still just giving me download errors. I can see the warnings but not the actual radar. EDIT: Finally got it to work Edited March 6, 2022 by OKwx_2001 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now