March 5-19, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak/Severe Weather Pattern That Won't Quit

[Ingyball]

Wow, never seen this in my point and click before. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[ElectricStorm]

A 60 sigtor contour has appeared for tomorrow, but storm mode probably won't be favorable enough to take full advantage of it. At least let's hope not, especially after today. 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Another good example of never underestimate a negative tilt. Still have 7 severe warnings at almost Midnight local time.

End-of-the-day tornado reports is at 42. Every single one is in Iowa. Insane.

Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

17 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Another good example of never underestimate a negative tilt. Still have 7 severe warnings at almost Midnight local time.

End-of-the-day tornado reports is at 42. Every single one is in Iowa. Insane.

If some of the wind reports get upgraded to tornado reports, I could see this event getting 50+ which I don't think anyone was expecting this morning. At least I wasn't. There's a solid chance this could be the event with the most tor reports this month, unless something crazy happens. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, OKwx_2001 said:

If some of the wind reports get upgraded to tornado reports, I could see this event getting 50+ which I don't think anyone was expecting this morning. At least I wasn't. There's a solid chance this could be the event with the most tor reports this month, unless something crazy happens. 

I think 50+ by the end of surveying is locked in at this point. Had a lot of confirmed tornadoes and there's no way they don't add at least 8 more reports

[ElectricStorm]

Whoa already EF3+ 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Here we go again. Upgrade to enhanced. 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Severe watch now extends into the general thunderstorm area. Granted, to be fair, the squall should be borderline severe at most when it gets there. 

SW OH should get at least some thunder tonight after that 75 degree day. I'd be shocked if we get a severe warning.

Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yep this was definitely not shown by any CAM because that would’ve kinda been noticeable. So anything is possible this (Sunday) evening.

 

[Roger89]

Tornado Warnings in Hamilton, Madison and Delaware counties in Indiana.   3:30 am is a bad time.

[snowlover2]

Wasn’t expecting watches/warnings this close to me. This is crazy.

[Ingyball]

End of week system could be interesting. SPC is already highlighting it in their discussion. Gonna depend on whether or not we get the deeper/slower ECMWF and CMC solutions, vs weaker/faster GFS. Still need a lot of rain here so hopefully we can get some magic to happen lol. 

[Iceresistance]

Videos of the Wedge Tornado that just barely missed Des Moines, Iowa

 

[Iceresistance]

8 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Here we go again. Upgrade to enhanced. 

 

 

Updated again, there's a Hatched area down to Central Arkansas

[Iceresistance]

Video from Chariton, Iowa

 

[Organicforecasting]

Final NWSChat Reports covering DMX, DVN, ILX, IND, IWX, & LOT...

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#DMX,OAX,ILX,DVN,IND,LOT,IWX/202203051800/202203061800/0100

Edited March 6, 2022 by Organicforecasting

[ClicheVortex2014]

Latest HRRR is terrifying. Has some clear, dominant supercells. Has a couple supercells that are distinct for a few hours.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm now in the marginal risk here in Indy 

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has the 60% Contour again, this time, it's in Eastern Arkansas.

 

There's no way I'm getting storms here, it's in the mid 30s outside right now.

[snowlover2]

Slight risk just south of Dayton. Still surprised about the early morning severe just north of me this morning.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Cold front is very slowly approaching but also weakening so I’m knocking out my 4-mile walk.
 

Currently 70 degrees and the clouds are just raging through.

Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Central Illinois]

13 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Another good example of never underestimate a negative tilt. Still have 7 severe warnings at almost Midnight local time.

End-of-the-day tornado reports is at 42. Every single one is in Iowa. Insane.

We actually had some pretty good wind gusts with this line at one point part of the line was warned for 70mph winds when it came through here 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Only 2 hours out from seeing if HRRR is for real about some discrete supercells

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[cloudy_jake]

Mesoscale Discussion 0207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Mar 06 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern OK into AR...southeastern MO...and far western TN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061906Z - 062130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail should increase this afternoon. Tornado watch issuance is likely in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Showery convection has persisted for much of the day across eastern OK into northern/central AR, likely related to the continued lift associated with a 25-35 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet. A shortwave trough over the Southwest and adjacent southern/central High Plains will eject northeastward through this evening. Large-scale ascent over AR and vicinity is expected to remain nebulous in the near term. Still, it appears increasingly likely that sustained, surface-based storms will develop by 21-22Z (3-4 PM CST) as continued diurnal heating and low-level warm advection aid parcels in reaching their LFCs, and as a pronounced inversion around 670 mb observed on the 12Z LZK sounding slowly erodes. These storms will have access to rich low-level moisture to the south of a cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s. MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg will support surface-based storms. Even though low-level flow is not overly strong early this afternoon, it is forecast to quickly strengthen by late afternoon and especially the early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the west. Marginally favorable hodographs for updraft rotation around 21-22Z should increasingly become more elongated/curved through 02-03Z in the boundary layer. With the low-level jet likely strengthening to 45-50+ kt in this frame, the corresponding increase in low-level shear should prove favorable for a threat for a few tornadoes late this afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes could be strong with effective SRH of 200-300+ m2/s2, especially with any supercell that can remain discrete ahead of the cold front. Isolated large hail may also occur with any of the initially discrete convection, as 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells. Later this evening, damaging winds may become more of a concern if storms can grow upscale into one or more small bowing clusters. Given expectations for a gradual increase in the overall severe threat this afternoon, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.