Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) 0z HRRR shows enough forcing to get warm sector convection but no cells really stick out through 6pm central on Sunday. Showing 1000-1500 sbcape through the central third of Arkansas. Basically backing up 18z NAM. Edited March 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Sunday's event Potential could be very serious, 45% Contour has popped up in Northern Arkansas, also a Triple Point event like the one for Saturday (The day before) in Iowa Edited March 5, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) NSSL and ARW aren’t much help tonight because unfortunately it looks like the event will be past 0z. To achieve max potential, gotta have a supercell in the warm sector that isn’t poised to cross the warm front. FWIW… all CAMs have 1000-1500 sbcape. Appears Itll most likely happen near the warm front. Edited March 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) HREF has UH tracks north of the warm front Sunday at 6pm Central... so likely elevated. Might not be able to sleep on W KY. Looking like a mean of ~3 STP in NW AR which is pretty significant. Edited March 5, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Elevated thunderstorms are erupting ahead of the 60 knot LLJ/warm front and also back in W KS along the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 5, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 5, 2022 So.. I'll be ready at 1a on Monday for a wee one with thunder boomers again. UGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 45 sigtor contour up for today now but storm mode will probably prevent them from reaching their full potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Upgrade to enhanced risk for wind threat. Tor risk remains 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Little bit of a morning inversion at ILN. Already at 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 SPC mentions potential for an upgrade to enhanced risk for tornadoes tomorrow. Would be a nocturnal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 SPC upgraded to enhanced risk for tornadoes…non-hatched. Tornado watch is up. Cells are going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Got an early ambitious cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) All those cells in SW IA have rotation, now the question is can they produce something before likely merging into a squall line later. I think they will. EDIT: And just like that the first tor warning of the day is up. Edited March 5, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Seems most of it is staying to the east of me unfortunately. But here's the first tornado warning of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Quite favorable for supercells I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) https://mobile.twitter.com/chuck_haskin/status/1500218581820350468 EDIT: Apparently it's not embedding tweets anymore Edited March 5, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Quite the cluster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Well it still embeds it on laptop... Anyway looks like this was the first tornado of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Supercell is clear of other cells in the inflow region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Chasers reporting small tor on the ground near Corning. Is now confirmed by NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 (edited) Was a pretty large debris ball on radar but I'm not sure if that was from the tornado or not Edited March 5, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 NWS Chat app for y'all to follow... https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#DMX,OAX/202203051800/202203060559/0100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Large tornado heading towards Des Moines. Not good at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Pds warned! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 439 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 IAC049-121-153-181-052315- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/ Polk IA-Madison IA-Dallas IA-Warren IA- 439 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... At 439 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Winterset, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Des Moines, West Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Winterset, Windsor Heights, Carlisle, Saylorville, Southridge Mall, Iowa State Fairgrounds, Principal Park, Des Moines Int`l Airport, Drake Stadium And Knapp Center, Iowa Events Center, Hartford, Martensdale, Cumming, Patterson and Bevington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 451 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 IAC049-121-153-181-052315- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220305T2315Z/ Polk IA-Madison IA-Dallas IA-Warren IA- 451 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CST FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN DALLAS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES... At 451 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles northwest of Avenue Of The Saints Event Center, or 8 miles east of Winterset, moving northeast at 45 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. Damage has been reported near the Winterset area and just south. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Des Moines, West Des Moines, Indianola, Norwalk, Pleasant Hill, Windsor Heights, Carlisle, Saylorville, Southridge Mall, Iowa State Fairgrounds, Principal Park, Des Moines Int`l Airport, Drake Stadium And Knapp Center, Iowa Events Center, Hartford, Martensdale, Cumming, Patterson, Bevington and Spring Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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