Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 Good news for Dixie Alley... GFS appears to be bending toward Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Check out this hodograph in far east Oklahoma. Any increase in the dew point will be big. Small 30 sigtor contour at the end of SREF. Definitely noteworthy. Edited March 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) NAM has caved to GFS regarding a stronger low on Saturday. Has ~995mb while Euro is slowly caving, currently at ~1000mb. Appears, once again, GFS was right. This will be a stronger system. That also implies stronger moisture advection which opens the window for a positive dew point trend for Sunday and Monday. Edited March 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 30 sigtor contour has appeared for Saturday in IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 Can’t post it now but 0z HRRR REALLY likes a very strong supercell on the triple point on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Can’t post it now but 0z HRRR REALLY likes a very strong supercell on the triple point on Saturday Must be that cell in west central/NW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Must be that cell in west central/NW IA. Yep. Cape profile just about as fat as it gets in Iowa in early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yep. Cape profile just about as fat as it gets in Iowa in early March This is what I was talking about. Good thing directional shear isn't that great. Looks to me like a splitting supercell kind of hodograph. Edited March 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 30 sigtor contour has appeared for Sunday now. Was 15 earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) My boldest take for the new day 2 outlook is there'll be a slight risk for hail... albeit small... in NW IA. I'll be shocked if they go with anything BUT a slight risk for tornadoes/wind. Edited March 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 Nice. Slight risk for hail, wind, tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: My boldest take for the new day 2 outlook is there'll be a slight risk for hail... albeit small... in NW IA. I'll be shocked if they go with anything BUT a slight risk for tornadoes/wind. Spot on. 5% tor risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) HRRR still likes discrete cells. The initial supercell has a >2" hail threat and probably more of a tornado threat than you'd normally have with those conditions due to its proximity to the triple point/low. But the cells that develop later in central Iowa have much more convincing hodographs. Problem is... they don't last long due to the time of day. With the initial cell The later cells Edited March 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 6 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: HRRR still likes discrete cells. The initial supercell has a >2" hail threat and probably more of a tornado threat than you'd normally have with those conditions due to its proximity to the triple point/low. But the cells that develop later in central Iowa have much more convincing hodographs. Problem is... they don't last long due to the time of day. With the initial cell The later cells The first sounding is contaminated, note the Red bars shooting off to the right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted March 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 8 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Spot on. 5% tor risk Why. Why must they do this.😭 I don't need to get called in on my day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 NAM's showing some pockets of 10+ supercell parameter for Sunday. Shear is pretty crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 4, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) 59 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: NAM's showing some pockets of 10+ supercell parameter for Sunday. Shear is pretty crazy. pretty impressive for the first week of march! Edited March 4, 2022 by Central Illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Central Illinois said: pretty impressive for the first week of march! I mean those wind profiles are really impressive but it still blows my mind we had a wind profile like this in mid-April. Easter 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 HRRR has one supercell that develops on the triple point, looks really strong for an hour or so before it weakens. No other cells really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 NAM continues to get uglier and uglier Sunday... NW AR South-central MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 4, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 4, 2022 LZK mentions 500-1000 cape, >70 knots effective shear, and 200-400 (effective?) SRH. I guess they aren’t buying the 1000-1500 cape values that NAM is showing. At least not yet. Which is understandable. But 500-1000 cape is more than enough for that much shear. Just gotta get into the 1000-1500 cape range and favorable storm mode in order to get a higher-end tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: HRRR has one supercell that develops on the triple point, looks really strong for an hour or so before it weakens. No other cells really get going. Seems like tomorrow might be interesting for me. Hopefully not all of the fun stuff is in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 4, 2022 The latest NAM keeps the severe stuff away from me on early Monday morning. I’ll take it. Really would prefer to have no awakened children. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 5, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 5, 2022 Just a remarkable severe weather pattern. If this is April or May, there’s gotta be at least one moderate risk somewhere east of the Rockies. Severe weather outbreak all but guaranteed. If not the Plains, then along and east of the MS River. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 5, 2022 Share Posted March 5, 2022 30 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Just a remarkable severe weather pattern. If this is April or May, there’s gotta be at least one moderate risk somewhere east of the Rockies. Severe weather outbreak all but guaranteed. If not the Plains, then along and east of the MS River. I really hope that this is not a preview for this coming spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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