Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) CIPS analogs is pretty extreme for Sunday. I count 9 outbreaks. This is focused on the southern Plains. % of analogs with >10 severe weather reports % of analogs with at least 5 Switching to the Southeast sector ironically moves the severe threat back to the Southern Plains. Edited March 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 Something the models might be missing... the GoM is recovering from the cold second half of January/early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Something the models might be missing... the GoM is recovering from the cold second half of January/early February. The GOM will always recover from the extreme cold waves, but I did not expect it to recover this quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) I haven't been looking at the big picture here. GFS now has a pretty classic way to get significant and/or widespread severe weather in the early spring. One strong system comes through, cold front doesn't make it very far south before another system comes and adds moisture to the warm sector. The second system might come in too quickly for the aforementioned significant/widespread severe weather... but we'll see. Edited March 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Saturday kinda reminds me of 12/15. Obviously I'm not expecting the 4th largest tornado outbreak on record, but it's quite the coincidence For the record... GFS has dew points slightly lower than 12/15, and shear is quite a bit weaker than 12/15. So this event will be nowhere near 12/15, though it could still be interesting. Don't underestimate a triple point/990mb low. Yeah I upped wind and fire wording here today. Setup is similar to 12/15, but not as strong. Of course that can be the difference of a peak 80 mph wind gusts somewhere instead of the 100 we saw. Still potentially impactful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 2, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Ingyball said: Yeah I upped wind and fire wording here today. Setup is similar to 12/15, but not as strong. Of course that can be the difference of a peak 80 mph wind gusts somewhere instead of the 100 we saw. Still potentially impactful. Oof. Oof. Oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) For 12z Saturday: GFS trend loop shows the warm sector has been decreasing in dew points (mainly in OK/NE TX) but the trend through the day has pushed the warm sector west. Alternatively, you could say the dryline is being pushed west. Same thing. I'd argue this trend is increasing the severe threat for Iowa. Valid 12 hours later... shows the dew points in Iowa are richer and closer to the low. Very clear dryline and cold front. I'm afraid the dryline might force some supercells... as they're known for... before the squall takes over. Edited March 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: CIPS analogs is pretty extreme for Sunday. I count 9 outbreaks. This is focused on the southern Plains. % of analogs with >10 severe weather reports % of analogs with at least 5 Switching to the Southeast sector ironically moves the severe threat back to the Southern Plains. Top one doesn't seem to like St. Louis very much. Would like to know where I can get these specific analogs. I found the CIPS analog site pretty easily, but the analogs on the main page only seem to go out to 48 hours and the extended analogs are too far out. Is there a specific page I'm missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said: Top one doesn't seem to like St. Louis very much. Would like to know where I can get these specific analogs. I found the CIPS analog site pretty easily, but the analogs on the main page only seem to go out to 48 hours and the extended analogs are too far out. Is there a specific page I'm missing? Gotta click on the specific hour then hover your mouse over thumbnails and then click SPC storm reports. -- GFS lowered the threat for the Southern Plains on Sunday only to focus on Dixie Alley on Monday. And oof. That's a pattern we've seen too many times. Not a good one to say the least. Can't post the image directly right now for some reason. https://i.imgur.com/9E8oZ8f.png https://i.imgur.com/SogyIAy.png Edited March 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 0z GFS looks a lot more like the Euro for Sunday. Moisture doesn't make it as far NW, but the main threat area looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 Quite the difference between Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) Two slight risks now. Quote ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will eject northeastward across the central Plains on Saturday/D4, reaching the upper Great Lakes by 12Z Sunday/D5. This wave may take on a negative tilt, with strong height falls in a corridor from northeast KS to Lake MI. At the surface, low pressure will move across eastern NE and IA by 00Z, and continue across WI during the evening. A plume of 50s F dewpoints appears reasonable ahead of the low and trailing dryline, where deep mixed layers are forecast to exists across eastern KS and NE. Forecast soundings indicate strong shear and wind speeds in general, but overall weak MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Strong supercellular wind profiles and favorable large-scale lift with this fast-moving wave should result in severe storms though, and damaging winds appear most likely. It is uncertain how far south the threat will exist into KS/MO, as ascent rapidly lifts north. Tornado risk will be closely tied to boundary-layer moisture quality and mixing, although QLCS tornadoes are always possible. Behind this system and on Sunday/D5, a front will become nearly stationary from the Red River northeast toward the lower OH Valley, and southerly winds will result in low and perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints. Minor shortwave ridging will occur over this area during the day, but gradual height falls will occur Sunday/D5 night into Monday/D6 morning as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves across OK and KS. While height falls will occur primarily north of the aforementioned stationary front, models indicate a weak surface wave may develop along the boundary from north TX into AR which may locally provide lift and backed low-level flow. In addition, 850 winds are forecast to exceed 50 kt with positive theta-e advection Sunday/D5 night. Therefore, although an appreciable amount of showers and thunderstorms may exist at various time of the day due to warm advection, a severe risk may develop late with wind and tornado risk. Models have consistently forecast MUCAPE at less than 1000 J/kg, which precludes any higher probabilities at this time range. Further thunderstorm activity is expected across parts of the OH and TN Valleys as the positive-tilt wave moves northeast along the cold front, but extensive precipitation, weak instability and predictability with wave timing preclude any further areas at this time. Edited March 2, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 It looks like Saturday is going to come down to GFS vs Euro. GFS has been a lot stronger with the trough than the Euro and overall would be a much bigger threat. The difference here would be a marginal wind advisory on the Euro, and a high wind warning on the GFS. GFS has been fairly consistent with it's trends outside of earlier runs when it was weaker. Euro has been less consistent and weaker, though perhaps the 12z was slightly stronger than before. There's a pretty noticeable trend west too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ingyball said: It looks like Saturday is going to come down to GFS vs Euro. GFS has been a lot stronger with the trough than the Euro and overall would be a much bigger threat. The difference here would be a marginal wind advisory on the Euro, and a high wind warning on the GFS. Puts you in an unenviable spot. Gotta lean toward GFS rather than Euro, no? It's got consistency and, anecdotally, a better track record especially with severe events this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 High of 72 on Saturday here.... wow. Just jumping on into spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 How about that. 3/2/12 shows up in the analogs on... 3/2/22. Valid for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 49 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: How about that. 3/2/12 shows up in the analogs on... 3/2/22. Valid for Monday. How do you get to the screen that has all the analogues at the same time? I was navigating the CIPS site last night but all I found was the page where you click on a point on the map and it gives you a list of the top 5 analogues for that day. But then you have to click on each one to see the storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: How do you get to the screen that has all the analogues at the same time? I was navigating the CIPS site last night but all I found was the page where you click on a point on the map and it gives you a list of the top 5 analogues for that day. But then you have to click on each one to see the storm reports. Not sure why it’s only giving you 5. I just click on a specific day, go to thumbnails, and then SPC storm reports. The site I use is the first one when you Google “CIPS analogs” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 2, 2022 Getting really concerned for Monday in Dixie Alley especially if GFS is right about everything except moisture. Put Euro's moisture with GFS's everything else and this is a significant event. Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not sure why it’s only giving you 5. I just click on a specific day, go to thumbnails, and then SPC storm reports. The site I use is the first one when you Google “CIPS analogs” Ok I found it. Was on the wrong page 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Welp, 2/5/08 is the #2 analogue for Sunday on this run... not gonna happen but dang https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F108&rundt=2022030212&map=thbSVR On the other region it's #6 but both regions have some big time events showing up https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F108&rundt=2022030212&map=thbSVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Welp, 2/5/08 is the #2 analogue for Sunday on this run... not gonna happen but dang https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F108&rundt=2022030212&map=thbSVR On the other region it's #6 but both regions have some big time events showing up https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F108&rundt=2022030212&map=thbSVR Usually not a good sign. I'm not sure if one can categorize this as a negative tilt... I think GFS has a slight negative tilt based on the axis while Euro has more of a slight positive tilt. That would also explain the surface pattern... the warm front, cold front, strength and position of low. Both solution kinda give the illusion of a negative tilt due to the very strong southwesterlies you'd normally see in a negative tilt. What we 'lose' by not having a true negative tilt is the cool mid-levels in the warm sector. Also could discourage warm sector convection due to a lack of forcing (vorticity advection)... but obviously it's still possible regardless of tilt. What we do still get, it appears, is strong deep-layer shear that favors long-lived supercells should they form. Feels amazing outside tonight. Very comfortable. Had a brief rain shower and now it just smells like Spring rain. I love this time of year. Edited March 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) NAM is starting to conform to GFS/Euro Edited March 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 3, 2022 Sounding in NE MS/NW AL... yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Day 3 Quote ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER IOWA... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms are possible over Iowa and small portions of surrounding states on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A potent shortwave trough will eject northeast out of the central Plains and toward the upper MS Valley on Saturday, with a surface low moving from KS into IA through 00Z. A plume of 50s F dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a dryline which will extend southwestward from the low into eastern KS and OK. Meanwhile, a warm front will gradually move north across eastern IA and southern WI. Boundary layer moisture and instability are both forecast to be lesser than previously thought, and this will have an effect on the overall magnitude of this event. While the synoptic setup will be favorable for supercells producing all facets of severe, the low-level lapse rates plume may remain a bit farther south of the stronger lift, and forecast soundings show only a narrow region of uncapped air mass. In addition, 850 flow is expected to veer relatively quickly. MUCAPE around 500 J/kg appears possible, with the greatest low-level shear ahead of the low and near the warm front with values over 300 m2/s2. There may be a favorable area near the low where surface-based instability is large enough, and coincident with strong low-level shear, for a localized tornado threat. Otherwise, damaging gusts will be possible due to strong winds off the surface. A few storms cannot be ruled out farther south along the cold front into KS and MO as it surges south. Periodic wind or hail may occur with this activity through the evening. Elsewhere, elevated general thunderstorms may spread relatively far east across the OH Valley overnight with weak instability and a strong, broad low-level jet over 60 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now