ElectricStorm Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 March 5-6 could get interesting here, especially if the trough slows down like usual. Still a lot of factors at play here, but we should be looking at some type of decent event about a week from now, especially east of the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 You don't see D9 mentioned on the SPC very often Quote By Sat/D7, models indicate increased low-level moisture return over the southern Plains as a large upper trough develops over the western CONUS. The ECMWF members show a strong midlevel jet emerging into the central/southern Plains at this time, and indications are that this wave may eject rather quickly northeast. Dewpoints up to 60F may spread as far north as eastern OK as a low deepens over the upper MS Valley. While some degree of severe threat may develop along the trailing dryline or cold front, instability is forecast to be relatively weak and will also depend on heating. For Sun/D8, shortwave ridging is forecast over the Plains as a secondary wave (still within the large-scale mean trough) moves across the Four Corners states. A boundary would likely be in place across parts of the southern Plains in the wake of the Sat/D7 system, and increasing southerly flow late Sun/D8 into Mon/D9 could potentially result in severe potential as moisture returns north. The second wave, if the ECMWF ensemble verifies may yield greater severe potential as boundary layer moisture will have had a longer time to increase across TX and toward the lower MS Valley (mid to upper 60s F). If models remain consistent, one or more severe areas may eventually be added in later outlooks as predictability warrants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 27, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 27, 2022 (edited) Gfs looks really active for early March Cant post now but CIPS analogs has 3 severe weather outbreaks for the Southern Plains. A couple have a couple long swaths of significant hail. Edited February 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 12z GFS had a severe weather outbreak for the plains, but the 18z run really backed off. We'll probably see several more shifts back and forth over the next several days. 18z GFS and 12z Euro are actually fairly similar on timing which usually doesn't happen at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) GFS appears to be starting to hone in on some consistency. It's been trending quicker for the 3/5 system. The past few runs have shown two relative maximums of supercell composite parameter. One in the warm sector, the other along the cold front. So that's interesting. Might be a sign that there'll be some reason to believe in warm sector convection... like maybe some boundary or surface wind convergence or something. Instability in SW KY is pretty lame but would get the job done for a slight risk. And definitely something to keep an eye on. The setup along the cold front in IL is generally less favorable. So I don't the question anymore is if there will be severe weather... it's where. I changed the title of the thread. Leaving the end date open in case this is one of those events where the cold front doesn't push very far south before another system draws it back north as a warm front. Edited February 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) The dryline actually makes it pretty far east on the 18z GFS. Barely makes it to the IL/MO border which is pretty significant... but out of any time of the year, a study has shown that the first half of spring is when the dryline tends to travel east the most and travels the most further east. Some pretty (in)famous examples are both Super Outbreaks (4/3/74, 4/27/11) and 3/2/12. Each one made it past the Mississippi river before the cold front ate it. Edited February 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 0z GFS doesn't look a whole lot different than the last run. One thing we'll have to keep an eye on is that it wants to get 60s dewpoints all the way up to the IL/IN area. The first week of March seems pretty early for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2022 43 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 0z GFS doesn't look a whole lot different than the last run. One thing we'll have to keep an eye on is that it wants to get 60s dewpoints all the way up to the IL/IN area. The first week of March seems pretty early for that. Decent EML, too. This is in SW IN. Still just short of 1000 sbcape. Shear's pretty modest for this time of year but would still be a severe weather day with the threat for supercells. Clear trend toward a weaker system. 1002mb tonight compared to 992mb last night. The system trended quicker throughout today but this run slowed it down a bit. Those 20 knot surface winds gotta be enhancing mixing, drying out the dew point in addition to daytime heating. So it's pretty impressive that a 60 degree dew point managed to be maintained at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 This weekend looks to be the first legit threat of the spring 🌩️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) Can’t recall how GFS has been doing with forecasting moisture content anymore because historically it hasn’t been good, though I do remember 12/10 wasnt looking too impressive in the medium range on GFS. There were only a few isolated spots of 6+ supercell parameter. Not sure if that was due to underestimating moisture, shear, or both Definitely gotta watch dew point trends for this weekend. With an EML, a dew point increase by even a couple degrees would make a pretty big difference. Thankfully low-level shear is merely above average and not very strong or extreme, but what the modes are showing would do the job. That said, the lack of higher-end shear at this time of year puts a lid on the ceiling. I’m Edited February 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Overall timing is still fairly similar between the GFS and Euro, but the GFS gets the 60s dewpoints much further north on Sunday than the Euro does. Either way, I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing some slight risks in the next few SPC extended outlooks. It doesn't look like anything too crazy, but a lot of times these events will uptrend as the event gets closer. Definitely something to watch for. I'm also keeping an eye on Saturday. If the system can slow down by just a few hours from where the models have it, We could end up potentially getting some sort of event here in the plains. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2022 (edited) Certainly looks like the Southern Plains, not the mid-MS valley, will be the place to be this weekend. Pretty broad area of favorable parameters. Got a negative tilt but the shortwave is pretty displaced from the warm sector. Synoptic pattern looks pretty convincing. Edited February 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Definitely will follow the severe weather conversation more closely this year. A lot of really knowledgeable people in here for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 If I'm correlating the colors right, looks like 3-4" of rain in one day for the IL/MO/KY tri-state area. I know there's already a flooding thread but just goes to show that this will be an impactful system regardless of the level of severe threat. Also not ideal to add to the already-saturated soil in early March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) And here come the inevitable west shifts 🤔 My confidence in us having some sort of severe weather event this weekend is starting to increase. Edited March 1, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Day 5 in Iowa Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 01 2022 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate the first in a potential series of shortwave troughs will move across the Southwest on Friday/D4, with a jet max ejecting into the central and southern High Plains by 12Z Saturday/D5. Low pressure is forecast to deepen into KS Friday/D4 night, with increasingly southerly flow bringing mid 50s F dewpoints north across OK and into eastern KS ahead of the low. Given the late moisture return for this system and timing, little warm sector convection is expected. However, elevated storms are forecast from NE into IA, with minimal severe threat. This low is forecast to deepen further on Saturday/D5 as it shifts into the upper MS Valley, with mid to possibly upper 50s F dewpoints spreading north across the warm sector. Shear will be strong near the low with this deepening system, and conditionally favorable or supercells and or QLCS, but forecast MUCAPE looks to only be in the 250-500 J/kg range, which is low. However, the favorable synoptic setup should favor at least a few severe storms. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates behind the dryline/front, with very strong wind speeds in the mixed layer which suggests at least damaging wind potential despite minimal CAPE. By Sunday/D6, the lead wave will quickly move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a front stalling from the Red River to the OH Valley. Another lower amplitude wave is expected to shift east across the southern and central Plains, and a low may form near the boundary which would then allow for a warm front to lift north across the Arklatex and into the OH Valley Sunday/D6 night. Due to increasingly low-level moisture across TX and the lower MS Valley, extensive precipitation is possible Sunday. This fact, along with the possibly subtle surface wave along the front, decrease predictability. However, a 40-50 kt low-level jet Sunday/D6 night along with sufficient instability suggest a severe area will eventually be added in the region. By Monday/D7, predictability decreases further as the shortwave trough ejects rapidly northeastward, and the upper trough becomes more elongated southwest to northeast. Some degree of severe potential may still exist at this time with favorable low-level moisture along the cold front, from the Gulf Coast states across the TN and OH Valleys. ..Jewell.. 03/01/2022 Looks like we might see some storms here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said: Day 5 in Iowa Looks like we might see some storms here too? The Severe Storm area in Iowa & Northern Missouri on the Day 5 outlook is showing the Highest model confidence near the Triple Point. Edited March 1, 2022 by Iceresistance Just noticed Northern Missouri as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 it’s always Iowa I just want to feel humidity in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) Watching Sunday pretty closely. First of all, this could end up being a pretty widespread event. GFS now has moisture return much further west than it did a couple days ago, and if the trough slows down just a bit, that would open up more of the OK/TX area to get in on the action. Euro for comparison. Not as far NW but similar in the main threat area. This is some pretty impressive moisture return for the first week of March. For now, I think the biggest threat area is the Arklatex region, and I wouldn't be surprised to see SPC put up a 15% area, perhaps as early as tomorrow's outlook. Starting to see a consensus on the GEFS SCP ensembles, a couple days ago they were all over the place. Yes, several of these members are overdoing it, but they all are showing some solid numbers in the same general areas. Instability isn't anything crazy, but this would be enough to get the job done for an early March event. Still a long time to get everything sorted out but the trend seems to be pointing to at least a decent event on Sunday. Of course we also gotta watch that triple point in IA Saturday, those types of events can uptrend very quickly. Edited March 1, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) Yeah Sunday could be interesting. Big marginal risk, maybe a big slight risk. The best parameters are in E TX, but the sounding there shows pretty weak instability from 0-3km which could cause updrafts to start too sluggish to get serious momentum going through the shear. As you mentioned, this could escalate quickly though. Especially considering shear is pretty strong... especially deep-layer shear. Edited March 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 Got up to 65 degrees today while being mostly cloudy. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Got up to 65 degrees today while being mostly cloudy. Wow. It's 71 here, on March 1! We're still usually recovering from the worst of winter at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) Saturday kinda reminds me of 12/15. Obviously I'm not expecting the 4th largest tornado outbreak on record, but it's quite the coincidence For the record... GFS has dew points slightly lower than 12/15, and shear is quite a bit weaker than 12/15. So this event will be nowhere near 12/15, though it could still be interesting. Don't underestimate a triple point/990mb low. Edited March 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014 @NebraskaEgg I managed to record 76*F today, I did not expect that to start March, that's normally the start of May! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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