March 5-19, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak/Severe Weather Pattern That Won't Quit

[ElectricStorm]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Val Castor may have spotted a brief tornado as a Tube of Dust.

 

@OKwx_2001, what's velocity showing on the Binger Supercell?

Not sure I think radarscope just went down for me. I've been busy today so can't really track this for a couple more hours. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

one of those days where you can see the updraft in the supercells

[Iceresistance]

Western OKC is getting absolutely clobbered with Golf Ball sized Hail

[snowlover2]

10% hatched tornado area added in SE LA for tonight. Not good for an overnight period.

Quote

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Threats for severe thunderstorms are expected late this this evening
   over parts of Oklahoma and northeast Texas, where large hail and
   wind damage will be possible. A threat for tornadoes, wind damage
   and isolated large hail will be possible in parts of southern
   Louisiana and southern Mississippi after midnight.

   ...Oklahoma/Northeast Texas...
   The latest water vapor imagery has a negatively tilted upper-level
   trough over the southern Plains. A broad plume of mid-level moisture
   extends from the Red River Valley northward into the central Plains,
   wrapping southwestward around the system into the southern and
   central High Plains. At the surface, a 999 mb low is locate in
   southwest Oklahoma. A narrow corridor of maximized low-level
   moisture is located from north-central Texas into central Oklahoma,
   where surface dewpoints range from the upper 40s to mid 50s F. The
   RAP is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 1000 to 1200
   J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the
   instability axis this evening. The storms will move
   north-northeastward across central Oklahoma and develop
   southeastward into southern Oklahoma and northeast Texas later this
   evening.

   In addition to moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings this
   evening in central and southern Oklahoma have 40 to 50 knots of 0-6
   km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment
   will be favorable for supercells and large hail. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
   dominant cells. The potential for very large hail should develop
   southeastward across south-central Oklahoma and into far north Texas
   late this evening. Wind damage may also accompany the stronger
   thunderstorms as well. 

   ...Southern Louisiana/Southern Mississippi...
   The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will move toward the
   Arklatex tonight as a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens in the
   lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front will move
   from east Texas eastward across Louisiana tonight. Surface dewpoints
   along and southwest of the front will be in the 60s F, with MLCAPE
   likely reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
   expected to form this evening in east Texas near the axis of the
   low-level jet and expand quickly in coverage, moving
   east-northeastward across the Arklatex tonight. Thunderstorms are
   also expected to develop southward across central and southern
   Louisiana after midnight.

   RAP forecast soundings along the most favorable corridor for severe
   from southern and central Louisiana eastward into southwest
   Mississippi late tonight have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
   around 40 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 275 to
   325 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for supercells and
   tornadoes. A strong tornado will be possible, mainly in southeast
   Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, after 08Z when low-level shear
   will become maximized across the lower Mississippi Valley.
   Supercells will also be capable of producing wind damage and
   isolated large hail. Due to increasing potential for tornadoes
   overnight, will add an enhanced across parts of southeast Louisiana
   and southwest Mississippi.

   ..Broyles.. 03/18/2022

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

So I guess there will be a nocturnal tornado threat. Not good.

[ElectricStorm]

Storms coming my way so we should get a good rain out of this. The severe watch is just one county away from me so there's a chance we could get something strong. 

[ElectricStorm]

Mesoscale Discussion 0271 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...Central/Eastern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48... Valid 180222Z - 180345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to gradually decrease over the next few hours. Even so, a few storms will still have the potential to produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A large area of thunderstorms continues to move gradually northeastward across central OK. These thunderstorms are currently in an area of modest buoyancy, with mesoanalysis estimating MUCAPE ranges from around 1000 across south-central OK to around 250 J/kg over north-central OK. The air mass downstream across northeast OK is currently stable, with no buoyancy indicated within mesoanalysis or forecast soundings. However, mid-level moistening associated with the approaching shortwave trough in tandem with some cooling aloft should result in modest buoyancy over the next few hours as the storms move into the region. Moderate to strong vertical deep-layer shear will remain over the region, although some weakness in the mid-level flow will persist. Given these environmental conditions, the expectation is for gradually diminishing storm intensity and coverage over the next few hours. Isolated hail will remain possible within the strongest updrafts, along with the potential for a few stronger wind gusts, particularly where the downdrafts augment the gusty winds along the front. ..Mosier.. 03/18/2022

[Iceresistance]

I'm in a really favorable position right now for a lot of rain

 

Storms moving north, but building southward.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here we go I think maybe

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...Southern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 180347Z - 180645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Conditions are expected to become more favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, over the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southern LA continues to recover ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains. Current surface observations show dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s across southwest LA into the upper 50s across south-central LA, amid surface temperatures in the upper 60s. As shown by the 00Z LCH sounding, these surface conditions do not yet result in surface-based buoyancy and all of the storms thus far appear to be rooted between 925 and 850 mb. The more buoyant air currently remains to the southwest of the region. However, it is expected to advect northward/northeastward over the next few hours, bringing mid to upper 60s dewpoints into the area. Surface-based buoyancy is anticipated as a result of this moisture increase. In addition to the improving thermodynamics, the kinematic environment is already quite impressive. Recent KLCH VAD profile sampled over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Some convective influence may be ongoing currently due to a nearby thunderstorm, but low-level curvature has been gradually increasing over the last few hours. Given these trends, the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, is expected to increase over the next several hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to address this increasing threat. ..Mosier/Hart.. 03/18/2022

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mesoscale Discussion 0272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022 Areas affected...Southern LA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 180347Z - 180645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Conditions are expected to become more favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, over the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover this threat. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southern LA continues to recover ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the southern Plains. Current surface observations show dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s across southwest LA into the upper 50s across south-central LA, amid surface temperatures in the upper 60s. As shown by the 00Z LCH sounding, these surface conditions do not yet result in surface-based buoyancy and all of the storms thus far appear to be rooted between 925 and 850 mb. The more buoyant air currently remains to the southwest of the region. However, it is expected to advect northward/northeastward over the next few hours, bringing mid to upper 60s dewpoints into the area. Surface-based buoyancy is anticipated as a result of this moisture increase. In addition to the improving thermodynamics, the kinematic environment is already quite impressive. Recent KLCH VAD profile sampled over 400 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Some convective influence may be ongoing currently due to a nearby thunderstorm, but low-level curvature has been gradually increasing over the last few hours. Given these trends, the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, is expected to increase over the next several hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed to address this increasing threat.

[ClicheVortex2014]

[ElectricStorm]

10 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

80/50 probs that's some of the highest of the year so far. Not good this will be happening at night...

[snowlover2]

So if you guys weren't aware, they added a new symbol at the top right of the reply box that looks like this </>. It's a code box so if you click on that and paste the MD/NWS warning text in it, it will keep the format as is and not jumble it all together.

[ClicheVortex2014]

10 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

80/50 probs that's some of the highest of the year so far. Not good this will be happening at night...

Latest HRRR has weak low-level instability at least through the night. Hopefully that verifies because that would hold down the tornado threat.

[ElectricStorm]

16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Latest HRRR has weak low-level instability at least through the night. Hopefully that verifies because that would hold down the tornado threat.

Yeah it's looking pretty messy down there right now. Still a ways out from the enhanced risk though.

[snowlover2]

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1256 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2022  
  
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND  
FAR WESTERN GEORGIA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF  
COAST STATES, WHERE TORNADOES, WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL  
WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL  
AND WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOME OF WHICH COULD HAVE VERY LARGE HAIL.  
   
..SOUTHEAST  
  
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND  
OZARKS TODAY, AS A 60 TO 80 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES  
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE AN IMPORTANT  
PLAYER FOR THE SEVERE THREAT. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WARM FRONT,  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F, CONTRIBUTING TO A BROAD WARM  
SECTOR WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT, WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE  
PERIOD FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY  
AFTERNOON.  
  
A LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT  
DAYBREAK WITH THE JET MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BY  
MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE  
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA  
IN THE 15Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME HAVE 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN  
THE 300 TO 400 M2/S2 RANGE SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR  
TORNADOES. IF SUPERCELLS CAN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AT NEARLY THE SAME  
SPEED AS THE WARM FRONT, THEN A LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADO WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. OTHER TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT  
INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL  
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. THERE IS SOME  
CONCERN WITH THE WEAK STORM RELATIVE WINDS AT MID-LEVELS EVIDENT ON  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WOULD BE  
PRONE TO HAVE DOWNDRAFTS RAINING DOWN INTO THE UPDRAFTS. BUT STILL  
SOME STORMS, WITH ACCESS TO THE STRONGEST OF INSTABILITY ON THE  
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN, SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN  
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT.  
   
..OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI  
VALLEY TODAY AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 60 TO 80 KNOT MID-LEVEL  
JET MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A 1000 MB LOW WILL  
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A NARROW  
CORRIDOR OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM  
WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
WILL BE IN THE 50S F BY LATE MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THIS CORRIDOR EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP  
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONG. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR  
RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A FEW OF  
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE  
STRONGER SUPERCELLS. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY  
LARGE HAIL WILL BE FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THIS AREA, LIFT  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET, INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.  
  
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 03/18/2022 

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Sun has only been up for an hour or two locally, and it may or may not be a coincidence, but the warm sector is starting to show signs of life

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty sounding out of LIX... however, I question the lapse rates above 700mb. Looks too erratic and obviously the brief absolutely unstable layer just above 500mb is fake. But very moist profile with very strong low-level shear.

Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just realized SPC added hodographs to mesoanalysis. Amazing.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got a supercell structure with the potential to be semi-discrete soon

 

Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

I got .5 inch on my rain gauge

[ClicheVortex2014]

Squall is starting to stall out and supercells and emerging south of the stalled squall

[ElectricStorm]

This just looks like a regular squall with a QLCS spin up threat to me. Doubt we see any strong tornadoes unless something crazy happens. SPC still has the 10 hatched up though so we'll see. 

[Grace]

This afternoon around the low...is it much if a threat around west ky, MO, S. I'll, & Indy?