March 5-19, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak/Severe Weather Pattern That Won't Quit

[Iceresistance]

I've found this GFS sounding over my area for Tomorrow, I would suggest a Marginal/Slight risk of Tornadoes for Oklahoma & Texas (2nd sounding photo is near DFW)

[Chinook]

For what it's worth, Melbourne radar (Florida) sees a storm cell with 72dBz, approximately 3.25" hail (most likely, real hail of 1.5"-2") is over the ocean, east of Palm Coast. And... Jacksonville radar is not giving out data.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Chinook

[Chinook]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@ClicheVortex2014There's already a 60% significant tornado parameter for Mississippi & Louisiana. 

 

 

This chart shows a value computed by the SREF post-processing relating to tornadoes. See probabilities listed at the bottom of the chart. The STP numerical value involves mixed layer CAPE, effective-storm-relative helicity, effective-shear , mixed layer convective inhibition, mixed layer lifting condensation level. Wow! that's five things.

STP = (MLCAPE/1500 J kg-1) * ((2000-MLLCL)/1000 m) * (EffectiveSRH/150 m2 s-2) * (Effectiveshear/20 m s-1) * ((200+MLCIN)/150 J kg-1)

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth, Melbourne radar (Florida) sees a storm cell with 72dBz, approximately 3.25" hail (most likely, real hail of 1.5"-2") is over the ocean, east of Palm Coast. And... Jacksonville radar is not giving out data.

There is a Special Marine Warning for that cell for 'Large Hail & Winds up to 50 knots' 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got some supercells in Georgia that's right under the 500mb trough. Gotta be great hail producers.

 

Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

HRRR very consistent with a Triple Point Severe Storm even in Central Oklahoma, Texas is sadly capped.

[Iceresistance]

I see a small spot higher than 60% on the Significant Tornado Parameter in SW Louisiana, but I don't know what it is.

[ClicheVortex2014]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I see a small spot higher than 60% on the Significant Tornado Parameter in SW Louisiana, but I don't know what it is.

75. Problem with this time of day... 4am local time... is that it's unlikely to be surface-based convection and the tornado threat would therefore be zero. That parameter doesn't differentiate between surface-based instability and elevated instability.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said:

75. Problem with this time of day... 4am local time... is that it's unlikely to be surface-based convection and the tornado threat would therefore be zero. That parameter doesn't differentiate between surface-based instability and elevated instability.

That does mean, however, that severe storms are likely to persist overnight & into the early morning.

[ClicheVortex2014]

15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That does mean, however, that severe storms are likely to persist overnight & into the early morning.

Assuming there's well-organized convection, I agree. Certainly a few models would have an overnight severe threat, but the others wouldn't. So we'll see how the models trend in that regard

Edited March 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

The  Louisiana vicinity early-morning severe weather threat is interesting, although a bit of a conundrum for the severe weather game. A few severe storms may get going at 10z and the severe weather "day" ends at 12z. I'm still going to say the Louisiana scenario is a better scenario than picking mid-Oklahoma for the game.  I believe severe storm chances could also be relatively brief in Oklahoma in the evening hours.  Sometimes it is just hard waiting for the bigger stuff to start happening in the springtime, for the severe weather game.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Edit: wrong thread

Below WPC images are valid for 12z Monday and Tuesday respectively. No dryline depicted (yet?) which is weird for a possibly significant severe weather event in Texas... but it looks like there'll be a triple point regardless. Greatest tornado threat will be in the warm sector and near the triple point. 

Edited March 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Day 2 slight risk for tornadoes for the Lower OV. I didn't see that one coming. Makes sense with the strength of the low and the track, but I just thought moisture was too weak.

Edited March 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[BuckeyeGal]

My co-worker's husband got stuck in Alabama yesterday afternoon/evening because of the storms. Yuck!

[Iceresistance]

I'm in the Hatched Hail area for Today, there's also the Triple Point Tornado Threat for Oklahoma as well. 

 

I'm strongly planning to film this if everything goes to plan.

[snowlover2]

Enhanced/10% hatched tornado area added along the gulf coast for tomorrow.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1234 PM CDT THU MAR 17 2022  
  
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME  
SOUTHEAST MS INTO SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY, AND PORTIONS OF THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. DAMAGING GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A GREATER RELATIVE TORNADO RISK  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  
   
..CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST  
  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST LA INTO  
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN TN IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AMID  
INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR AS AN INITIAL MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE  
LARGELY ELEVATED ATOP A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF  
COASTAL AREAS. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY POSE A THREAT FOR  
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS FROM EAST-CENTRAL MS/CENTRAL AL NORTHWARD  
THROUGH WESTERN/MIDDLE TN.   
  
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LA/FAR SOUTHERN MS AND  
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, A MOISTURE-RICH  
BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WILL SUPPORT MODERATE  
INSTABILITY. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODEST, A COUPLE OF  
HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 3-KM  
CAPE VALUES FROM AROUND 100-150 J/KG. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ACROSS  
THIS AREA ALSO INDICATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ROTATION. A FEW  
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES (A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD  
BE STRONG/LONGER-TRACKED) ARE EXPECTED. DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ALSO  
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN  
AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.   
  
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, AS ANY  
LINGERING CONVECTION SHIFTS ACROSS GEORGIA TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.  
SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE  
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, THUS PERMITTING SOME DEGREE OF  
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO LINGER OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA  
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
   
.. CENTRAL AL TO MIDDLE TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
  
ONCE MORNING CONVECTION SHIFTS EASTWARD, A SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT  
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN AL INTO MIDDLE TN AHEAD  
OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO  
EXTEND FROM WESTERN TN INTO CENTRAL MS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LA AROUND  
20Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
WILL TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS MIDDLE TN.  
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW  
HOURS OF HEATING, AND COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE  
RATES. AS A RESULT, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH  
1000-2000 J/KG IS FORECAST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED SEVERE  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A RISK FOR TORNADOES, HAIL AND DAMAGING  
GUSTS.  
   
..MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY  
  
WHILE A STRONGER WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION, COLD  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS A SURFACE LOW  
SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS  
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN  
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL KY, WITH  
LOWER VALUES INTO SOUTHERN IN. LOWER-QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE  
WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION, BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR  
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ROTATION AND SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL, WITH A  
FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF 2+ INCH HAIL, STRONG GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF  
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING.  
  
..LEITMAN.. 03/17/2022 

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Very active stretch here coming up. Tomorrow could be the first moderate risk of the year. 

[snowlover2]

Should be noted that there is a hatched hail area for the northern slight risk in the OV.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Looking quite interesting in the OV tomorrow. Close to a pretty strong low, favorable storm mode, and apparently enough instability for the threat for >2" diameter hail. Won't be surprised to see an upgrade to enhanced risk for tornadoes there, too.

 

Obviously... the Gulf coast

 

Edited March 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

The current enhanced risk for tomorrow looks kinda messy on the CAMs. Bust potential.

 

OV doesn't look convincing on ARW or NSSL but does look convincing on FV3. ARW/NSSL just don't show much convection so it's not like the storm mode is messy. SPC seems to be convinced that storms will occur in the OV, so we should be able to rule them out unless the models start trending that way.

[snowlover2]

ILN mentioning severe potential tomorrow.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Attention will be shifting to a deepening area of low pressure
location over SW Missouri Friday morning. Weak flow out of the
southeast helps temperatures to quickly warm Friday morning,
but increasing mid-level clouds inhibit heating across the
western locations by afternoon.

In response to an approaching vort-max and isentropic ascent, a
band of rain with embedded thunder moves across the area from
southwest to northeast during the late afternoon and early
evening. This is covered with categorical PoPs and slight chance
thunder. Then, a period of much less rainfall coverage is
expected to quickly follow as deep ascent weakens considerably.
Even though coverage decreases, the highest potential for
severe weather arrives behind the first band of rainfall. As the
surface low approaches from the west, the associated cold front
will intersect a northward moving tongue of increasing surface
moisture. This intersection occurs southwest of the forecast
area. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop southwest
of the forecast area during the afternoon hours before moving
northeast into the forecast area. The expected time of arrival
is between 8-10 pm with the band of thunderstorms progressing
through the forecast area through the following few hours. While
the overall coverage is uncertain, highlighted this thunderstorm
potential with a band of higher PoPs.

Severe weather threat:
SPC currently places the highest probabilities for severe
weather southwest of the region, however, some probabilities
continue into the forecast area during the evening. This is a
fairly classic situation where weakening instability occurs
during the evening, but low-level wind shear remains supportive
of organized updrafts. The surface low to the northwest of the
forecast area results in backed flow, curving hodographs in the
lowest 0-3 km. For instability, dewpoints in the low to mid 50s
may limit the ability for continued updrafts. Hi-resolutions
models suggest some potential for storms that develop to the
southwest to persist long enough as they enter the far southwest
zones. For that, have decided to mention isolated severe threat
in the HWO.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm watch in effect for Oklahoma

[ClicheVortex2014]

Stunning dryline. Not surprisingly, there's an extreme risk for fire behind the dryline. There's already several fires going.

 

Wildfire outbreak in central Texas. A few popped up very close to eachother 

[Iceresistance]

Fat hook on a Supercell near Hinton, even though it's kinda disorganized, it's getting stronger

[Iceresistance]

Val Castor may have spotted a brief tornado as a Tube of Dust.

 

@OKwx_2001, what's velocity showing on the Binger Supercell?