Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 I'll file this under not suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 Nice sub-severe LEWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I'll file this under not suspicious It sure looks like the sort of thing that gets a tornado warning. Maybe NWS meteorologists knew some information that I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: It sure looks like the sort of thing that gets a tornado warning. Maybe NWS meteorologists knew some information that I don't. Might be enough low-level stability for them to sit on it... or maybe they just missed it because of the big picture/how brief that circulation was. I always give them the benefit of the doubt in cases like this. I'm just sitting here focused on one area. Edited March 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) 0z SHV sounding was erroneous (see all the -9999s and the ridiculous SRH numbers) but there certainly was weak low-level instability. A tornado would've been possible at the time but it depends what happened to the dew point and temp in the hours after this. Edited March 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 The hail reports over 1" of the day should have been where this is red, or almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 SPC has Severe weather through the 18th, then a break until Next Week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 This could be a Sneaky Setup . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 I guess we'll have to add Thursday to this thread. Special Day 3 outlook upgrade to slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Friday may have some potential here in the OV🌩️ "Some severe potential may also evolve over the Ohio Valley nearer the surface low, as colder air aloft associated with the upper trough supports low-topped afternoon destabilization, but at this time this risk appears insufficient to support areal inclusion." SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Tornado warning in FL west of Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Tornado warning just south of Orlando FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) Perhaps this is the reason behind the mid-day day 3 outlook upgrade. Holy crap. 45 sigtor this far out Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 When will this stop? There's now severe weather expected (Slight Risk or better) Through March 19th! Can this be "March 2022 Severe Weather Sequence"? I have a bad feeling for this spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) @ClicheVortex2014There's already a 60% significant tornado parameter for Mississippi & Louisiana. Edited March 16, 2022 by Iceresistance awkwardness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 16, 2022 15% hatched hail for… east-central florida? That’s very rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: When will this stop? There's now severe weather expected (Slight Risk or better) Through March 19th! Can this be "March 2022 Severe Weather Sequence"? I have a bad feeling for this spring Luckily early season activity doesn't mean the whole season will be active. 2021 was a prime example Edited March 16, 2022 by OKwx_2001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 1 minute ago, OKwx_2001 said: Luckily early season activity doesn't mean the whole season will be active. 2021 was a prime example What happened in 2021 was the the favorable phases for severe weather fell apart, I don't think this might be the case this year, every year is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: What happened in 2021 was the the favorable phases for severe weather fell apart, I don't think this might be the case this year, every year is different. Oh yeah for sure I'm just saying an active March doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Rainfall looks really impressive as well (Through 7 Days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 16, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: What happened in 2021 was the the favorable phases for severe weather fell apart, I don't think this might be the case this year, every year is different. 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Oh yeah for sure I'm just saying an active March doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will be active. This cool season has definitely had a tendency for strong western troughs… and unlike previous recent Ninas, this Niña is still going strong and even now orienting in a fashion that favors +TNI which favors above average tornado activity. So, for now, I don’t see a reason why the pattern will change aside from the MJO moving into unfavorable phases. I think it’s possible that the way the La Niña is evoking, the southern plains runs the risk of getting stuck under a southern ridge while the Midwest/OV benefits. But until then, if the western trough tendency continues, the plains should get some tornado alley worthy events. But if the southern ridge just stays in the southeast, then the plains/Midwest/Ohio valley will get the worst of the season. Also Dixie alley will light up until the SE ridge dominates in May. Edited March 16, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Texas could be in for a sneaky outbreak tomorrow, but the SREF has noticed the Triple Point threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 Nice to be back up and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Nice to be back up and running. Yes, They were updating the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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