Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Slight Risk even larger, 5% Tornado area now includes DFW, rain chances for my area is really increasing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 On 3/11/2022 at 3:25 PM, Iceresistance said: Severe storm chances now through the 15th of March per SPC, I knew March was going to be active, but not like this! I hate to put a negative on this, but this is not a highly active time for tornadoes. Mar 9: 5 reports, 1 tornado Mar 10: no reports Mar 11: 19 reports, 2 tornadoes Mar 12: 63 reports, 2 tornadoes Mar 13: no reports Mar 14: slight risk Mar 15-16: marginal risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Chinook said: I hate to put a negative on this, but this is not a highly active time for tornadoes. Mar 9: 5 reports, 1 tornado Mar 10: no reports Mar 11: 19 reports, 2 tornadoes Mar 12: 63 reports, 2 tornadoes Mar 13: no reports Mar 14: slight risk Mar 15-16: marginal risk Little under half way through March and we have 40 confirmed tornadoes. March averages around 75. Got the potential for a few today, and another possible outbreak next week. Not highly anomalous if we continue this pace, but has the potential to be well-above average March for tornadoes if we have another outbreak. Tornado watch coming in an hour or two Edited March 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 Looking like a pretty quick transition to squall. Might have a warm sector supercell but instability isn't impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) Ok so no tornado watch. I guess they do expect that rapid squall growth Edited March 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 hailer day it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Storms firing near Dallas now, looks like it's gonna go linear real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 Classic splitting supercell hodograph at FWD. Should also help the squall form quick. Nocturnal LLJ should kick in in 2 hours or so, which should make splitting supercells a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Storms from DFW to Waco are already likely to go linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) Might have a tornado watch later SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase markedly over the next few hours. Supercells, with some tornado potential, are expected. Greatest risk will be across eastern portions of ww and there is some consideration being given to a tornado watch across this area in the 23-00Z time frame. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent has overspread the dryline and scattered convection has increased markedly along the I-35 corridor from north-central into central TX. Exit region of 500mb speed max will overspread east-central TX later this evening. Of particular concern is the higher boundary-layer moisture that is advancing north across the southern/eastern portions of ww45 where surface dew points are in the mid-upper 50s. These dew points will yield appreciably higher instability given the very steep lapse rates. As dew points continue to creep into the upper 50s there is increasing tornado concern with these evolving supercells. Edited March 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for SE Dallas, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 38 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for SE Dallas, TX Several warnings in N TX now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Just now, snowlover2 said: Several warnings in N TX now. Now one near Ardmore, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 Seems the splitting supercell part of the event is over. Got some clustered/semi-discrete supercells along the dryline and numerous possibly organizing supercells in the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Solid Couplet over Leonard, TX with a Tornado-Warned Supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) Look at all that lightning... wow. Also got a couple dust storms in western Texas with the cold front Edited March 14, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Solid meso here but it's about to move into one of the worst and most annoying radar holes in the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Solid meso here but it's about to move into one of the worst and most annoying radar holes in the country NWS said that there has been Damage reported along TX-78 There's another large Radar Hole in Eastern Texas Edited March 14, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 (edited) HRRR advertised this cell very well. It said that it only has access to weak instability so we'll see if that's the case. Judging by that hail spike... I think there's a bit more than weak instability. Edited March 15, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This is some wormhole shit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 15, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 15, 2022 If this doesn't get you in the mood for the severe weather season I don't think anything will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 15, 2022 Share Posted March 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: If this doesn't get you in the mood for the severe weather season I don't think anything will I've already been in the mood since October lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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