Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 (edited) FWIW... HRRR has been trending toward more discrete storm mode for the enhanced risk. Due to 0z/6z/12z/18z runs going out 48 hours, these aren't successive runs. Trend is still important though. Storm mode eventually gets more iffy but still looks like there could be something there. Kinda reminds me of the January 2017 high risk day where the most favorable parameters were located in the high risk but didn't do much because of unfavorable storm mode, meanwhile the strongest tornado of the day occurred outside the high risk despite having less favorable parameters but more favorable storm mode. I don't think that will be the case tonight because there's only weak instability in S GA where storm mode appears slightly more favorable. But it's a good lesson. Edited March 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 How serious of an event are we looking at tonight? Especially since it's an overnighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, NebraskaEgg said: How serious of an event are we looking at tonight? Especially since it's an overnighter. For Florida it really just depends if supercells stay discrete enough. There's certainly potential for strong tornadoes if they do. Shear is gonna be pretty extreme. Of course, with timing being in the early morning hours (3-7am), it may be a very dangerous night. The squall portion from AL to the Carolinas could have plenty of embedded tornadoes if the low-levels aren't too stable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 I should be up for the beginning of the squall but the beginning of the supercell tornado potential is out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 Severe storm chances now through the 15th of March per SPC, I knew March was going to be active, but not like this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 11, 2022 Brief window of opportunity for a semi-discrete tornadic supercell but HRRR continues to show messy storm mode. On the other hand, it's showing some breaks in the squall in Georgia moving into SC. Sounding shows just enough low-level instability for at least some tornado threat. More favorable storm mode, stronger shear, but instability is on the low-end for strong tornadoes. So the enhanced risk has greater potential, but I think the squall is more of a lock for damaging winds/tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 (edited) SPC really hasn't changed their 10% tornado placement since 1pm yesterday. Impressive consistency especially given that multiple shifts have worked since then. Talk about being on the same page. Edited March 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe weather risk -- including potential for a couple of tornadoes -- will gradually increase the remainder of this evening and overnight. A tornado watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows a strong short-wave trough approaching the lower Mississippi Valley region at this time, and will reach the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will continue advancing eastward, while a cold air dam persisting across the Carolinas and into Georgia/eastern Alabama gradually erodes with time from southwest to northeast. As the low-level dam/stable layer is gradually replaced by higher theta-e air as low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with the advance of the upper system, a more favorable thermodynamic environment -- in terms of sustaining deep/moist convection -- will slowly evolve. Initially, this increase in low-level theta-e -- and thus mixed-layer CAPE -- will occur from southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. As this occurs, in tandem with a corresponding increase in low-level flow, risk for organized/rotating storms will likewise increase. At this time, it appears that a combination of storms developing near the front, along with additional warm-sector cells spreading northeastward/onshore from the Gulf, will eventually contribute to the increase in severe risk. Along with potential for a few instances of marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible, as will a couple of tornadoes. As such, new Tornado Watch issuance is expected to be required in the next 1 to 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 (edited) Clearly several supercells over the Gulf that are destined to come on shore eventually. Probably got a few hours... maybe less since storm motion should speed up with the approach of the actual system. (edit: not sure why I added actual in there) Edited March 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 (edited) Cell in SW AL is very slowly strengthening and possibly trying to create a mesocyclone. Notice in the first image there's a velocity 'shearline'... basically like there's a wall between the reds and greens. Can be compared to like a stationary front (at least in my mind)... it's the beginning stage of cyclogenesis. Similarly, I've seen this kind of signature be the precursor to a mesocyclone many times before. Granted, those times had much more favorable conditions for supercell development... so this might be a failed attempt. Edited March 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Cell in SW AL is very slowly strengthening and possibly trying to create a mesocyclone. Notice in the first image there's a velocity 'shearline'... basically like there's a wall between the reds and greens. Can be compared to like a stationary front (at least in my mind)... it's the beginning stage of cyclogenesis. Similarly, I've seen this kind of signature be the precursor to a mesocyclone many times before. Granted, those times had much more favorable conditions for supercell development... so this might be a failed attempt. Looks like this will not be one of those cases. Appears to be outflow dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 Tor watch with 50/40 probs up now until 6am EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 Storms are getting close to shore. Looks messy for now but we'll see what a dramatic change of friction does. Squall is getting going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 12, 2022 (edited) On 3/10/2022 at 9:19 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Based on 0z HRRR, storm mode in the current enhanced risk is messy. Big boom/bust potential. Shear is exceptional though, and a low-topped severe squall seems likely through S AL, GA, and the Carolinas. Could be an impressive swath of damaging wind reports. The messy storm mode in the area of the enhanced risk, ie north Florida, organizes a bit into either a squall with embedded supercells or a broken line of supercells. If I were to make an outlook based on this run alone, I’d have a slight risk for damaging winds from S AL through central GA… maybe enhanced. Slight risk for tornadoes where the current enhanced risk is, and an enhanced risk for tornadoes and damaging winds in the northern part of the Florida peninsula Then again, this is just one run and I’m not near the caliber of SPC Most of the enhanced risk is getting a stream of stratiform rain so thats looking sketchy. The southeast portion of the enhanced risk looks the best right now. The squall is still below severe limits. All the convection/lift going on along the coast might be holding the squall down. Edited March 12, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NebraskaEgg Posted March 12, 2022 Share Posted March 12, 2022 I'm just saying that's a very nice looking circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2022 (edited) At least SPC got some damaging wind reports in their enhanced risk. I was sold on the slight risk for the squall and there really wasn't anything until it got to the Carolinas. I think all the moisture involved and ascent with the storms in Florida took the potential away from the squall. I felt that was a possibility, but obviously I felt more strongly that it wouldn't matter. Always learning. Edited March 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Wonder if there's going to be much wind damage reports out of sw VA tonight. Feels like the damn house is going to blow away with some of these gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 Respect the circle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 13, 2022 Share Posted March 13, 2022 14 hours ago, NebraskaEgg said: I'm just saying that's a very nice looking circle Here's one frame from the FV3 model, you know, the CAM for those who like thunderstorms. There's a hammerhead shark shape storm near Dallas, 54 hours. Note 54 hours is not usually that accurate! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2022 Fv3 is always really ambitious with convection. But even HRRR shows some impressive storms. Makes sense given the lapse rates. Also shows the first MCV of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 13, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2022 4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Fv3 is always really ambitious with convection. But even HRRR shows some impressive storms. Makes sense given the lapse rates. Also shows the first MCV of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 Good thing the warm sector isn't more unstable... but this has straight up spring vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Not any major changes to the new outlook but the 5% tor area was expanded a bit and they added a hatched area for part of the 15% hail area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 14, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 14, 2022 5% tornado with 15% hatched hail in Texas? Hopefully the supercells stay rural because we’re about to have some good looking supercells 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now