Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) LLJ is strengthening... especially in N AR. Gonna help this supercell as long as it stays south of the warm front. https://i.imgur.com/0xqV25K.png Edited March 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 This is about to get nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 There's another couplet on a new Supercell SW of Danville, it could become Tornado Warned soon if it gets stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, Michelle said: Where is Brett's live feed? Youtube? Live Storm Chasing app 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 Per new day 1 outlook, tornado threat should at least persist if not increase ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS, AND ONE ISOLATED SUSTAINED SUPERCELL IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS (SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF FLIPPIN AT 0030Z). THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR THIS STORM TO PERSIST, OR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLUSTER, AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE POPLAR BLUFF, MO AREA AND MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE, IT APPEARS THAT TORNADIC POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE, OR INCREASE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 0z LZK sounding shows a very tall mixed layer. The mid-level dry air with the EML might be the reason why cells close to Little Rock have struggled. Otherwise... insane shear. We've seen this kind of tall mixed layer and dry EML before... 5/20/19... 45% tornado day that busted because the warm sector didn't produce. Similarities in the thermo profile are actually pretty impressive. Edited March 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014, possible twins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 0z LZK sounding shows a very tall mixed layer. The mid-level dry air with the EML might be the reason why cells close to Little Rock have struggled. Otherwise... insane shear. We've seen this kind of tall mixed layer and dry EML before... 5/20/19... 45% tornado day that busted because the warm sector didn't produce. Similarities in the thermo profile are actually pretty impressive. I could be wrong of course, but I think we might be seeing this a lot this year, especially in the Plains. With all the drought going on, it's gonna be really easy to get these pesky EMLs. I think we're in for yet another below average season over here in the plains. East of the Mississippi however, I think that will be a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There's another couplet on a new Supercell SW of Danville, it could become Tornado Warned soon if it gets stronger. Well, it literally collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cincysnow said: @ClicheVortex2014, possible twins? Probably just one meso dying out and another forming so yeah kinda 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Probably just one meso dying out and another forming so yeah kinda Didnt last long. Next scan it kinda died out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michelle Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 So we are in for a bunch of rain tomorrow around Dayton...so tired of it. It's still muddy from last month. Severe weather around 5am-noonish? Do I have this right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Michelle said: So we are in for a bunch of rain tomorrow around Dayton...so tired of it. It's still muddy from last month. Severe weather around 5am-noonish? Do I have this right? Sounds right based off ILN‘S AFD. Spoiler SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface low pressure to eject northeast across the area Monday morning. Widespread rain with embedded thunder to shift north early. This initial convection is elevated -- so the potential for severe wind is limited. A favorable window for potential severe weather looks to nose into ILN/s southwest from 10Z thru the morning. Convective allowing models show a line segment with forecast soundings showing the inversion lower -- becoming more surface based. Damaging wind will be the main threat. Widespread pcpn to push east Monday morning with lingering showers drying from the west in the afternoon. West winds of 15-20 MPH in the post-frontal environment as cooler air filters in from the west. Rain may be heavy at times with the favored area for 2 inches of rain overnight into Monday will likely be near in between the I-71 and I-70 corridors. This rainfall will lead to rises and possible flooding on area rivers and streams. Temperatures will fall area-wide in the afternoon in the post- frontal environment. Surface high pressure to build into the area Monday night. Pcpn to end late in the day with clouds lingering. Temperatures to drop to lows from the upper 20s to the lower 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 0z HRRR... reflectivity and 0-1km SRH. Explains the slight risk/marginal risk for tornadoes up the Ohio River pretty well. Interesting that we're looking at low-topped squalls on back-to-back nights. Edited March 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 So I guess the warm front is now pushing into Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 NE AR cell trying to produce. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 813 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 ARC121-070300- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220307T0300Z/ Randolph AR- 813 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY... At 812 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ravenden Springs, or 12 miles west of Pocahontas, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 New tor watch is up. Probs slightly lower at 60/40 but that's still pretty high. SPC must think that line in W AR is capable of causing trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudy_jake Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Southern Missouri cell looking impressive. All the cells earlier in Arkansas collapsed or struggled to get going. Only a few got strong enough to go tornado warned. Lets see what that line moving into Arkansas does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said: Southern Missouri cell looking impressive. All the cells earlier in Arkansas collapsed or struggled to get going. Only a few got strong enough to go tornado warned. Lets see what that line moving into Arkansas does. NWS is saying that this is on the Ground by Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Confirmed on the ground in S MO. Also that long lived supercell is finally no longer tor warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 Possible supercell is evolving out of what looked like a squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Velocity still indicative of decent rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 Slowly but surely watching a squall develop in W AR. Should be good for some widespread severe warnings and, depending on how quickly it organizes, could be a prolific QLCS tornado producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 7, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 7, 2022 Cell near Jasper might be trying something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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