Hurricane Oscar | peak 85 mph 986 mb | 45mph 1000mb sipping a daiquiri

[StretchCT]

 

Been following this wave/system for a week or so it seems. Formed in the MDR, fought dry air and some shear, mostly dry air. Survived into a more ample environment though not expected to make it to Hurricane status.  I'd actually be surprised. Haven't read the discussion yet but shear is lighter, warm ssts, moist environment. Maybe the proximity to land is holding it back?

 

Good divergence (yellow)  and vorticity. Convergence at the surface looks weak.

 

Good Max potential as well

So lets see what the forecast is.

Edited 23 hours ago by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Disco highlights: quickly evolving, amsr2 microwave showed much more structure and better organized, KU band scat suggests closed circulation. Goes 16 suggests circulation with bubbling hot towers. Lotta spread between SW and NE in ensemble members.  Shear is expected to increase next 24 hrs, so a short time frame to develop. Land interaction may also come into play. 

Spoiler

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure 
located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier 
this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image 
that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better 
organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on 
the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation 
was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery 
missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band 
scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First 
light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation 
has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense 
overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has 
formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak 
estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with 
a 35 kt initial intensity. 

Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This 
motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is 
initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the 
north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon 
expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to 
slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba 
in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue 
amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically 
deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical 
cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple 
TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF 
forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of 
southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker 
members slower and further west and stronger members being captured 
by the trough. 

Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for 
strengthening as shear remains low enough.  The first NHC intensity 
forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the 
eastern coast of Cuba.  Shear out of the northwest increases quite 
rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its 
north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There 
could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the 
circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and 
could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. 
After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small 
Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the 
middle of next week.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern 
Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been 
issued for those locations.

2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos 
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These 
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 21.3N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

INIT  19/1500Z 21.3N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[StretchCT]

I'm wary of the intensity forecast as storms have overperformed.  This looks pretty good.

 

Mission 2 already has 70kt flight and sfmr winds, Cat one strength

 

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

Vortex message from Oscar shows a waaaayyyy different scenario than what modeling shows

991 pressure with a closed circular eye 3nm wide. Inbound smfr winds 73mph, outbound 81mph.  Flight winds inbound (5k feet) 70mph, outbound 84mph.

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Name: Oscar
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 03

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 16:38:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.33N 70.37W
B. Center Fix Location: 50 statute miles (81 km) to the E (101°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,380m (4,528ft) at 850mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.27 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 3kts (From the SE at 3mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 3 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 217° at 61kts (From the SW at 70.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 1 nautical miles to the SE (133°) of center fix at 16:37:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 4 nautical miles to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 16:39:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 73kts (From the NE at 84.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) of center fix at 16:40:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,518m (4,980ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the WNW/NW (304°) from the flight level center at 16:40:00Z

Edited Saturday at 05:24 PM by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

AI-RI says game on

[StretchCT]

Top winds on this drop were 96mph

Last pass through the ext pressure was 993 but the drop showed 991.  This time through, they found 987mb ext. Waiting for drop and vort

[StretchCT]

In an interesting plot twist, Oscar's surface winds on a dropsonde are 96mph.  This better stay away from Turks.

This HAS to be updated to a hurricane based on latest hdobs too. 

Edited Saturday at 05:55 PM by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Oscar now a hurricane witn 80mph winds. NHC still taunting it.  Hurricane warnings up for SE Bahamas and T&C.

 

 

Edited Saturday at 06:04 PM by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Latest vort message: 989 pressure, closed circular eye 7nm wide (up from 3), sfmr in77mph/out 83mph, flight wind in 64mph, out 88mph. 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 17:51Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Name: Oscar
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 17:33:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.37N 70.54W
B. Center Fix Location: 39 statute miles (63 km) to the E (100°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,017m (9,898ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 1kts (From the N at 1mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 67kts (77.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the S (189°) of center fix at 17:32:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 289° at 56kts (From the WNW at 64.4mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the S (189°) of center fix at 17:32:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 72kts (82.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (14°) of center fix at 17:35:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 93° at 76kts (From the E at 87.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (14°) of center fix at 17:35:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,024m (9,921ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NNE (14°) from the flight level center at 17:35:00Z

 

[StretchCT]

In a breach of protocol a discussion was issued at 2pm. Not much more is expected out of Oscar. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Oscar Special Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

This is a special advisory to update the initial and forecast 
intensity for Oscar and current watches and warnings. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently flying through the 
system, and in their second southwest-to-northeast leg found 700 mb 
flight level winds of 76 kt, and a minimum central pressure of 989 
mb. The plane also reported a very small 3 n mi wide eye. A 
dropsonde recently launched in the northern quadrant also had a 150 
m boundary layer mean wind of 80 kt. A blend of these data supports 
upgrading Oscar to a hurricane this advisory with maximum sustained 
winds of 70 kt. The intensity forecast has been updated accordingly, 
and is substantially higher than the previous one.

Due to this unexpected higher intensity, the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has also
issued a Hurricane Watch for the same area currently under a
Tropical Storm Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is now expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions
of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern
Cuba during the next day or so. A Hurricane Warning has now been
issued for those locations.

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening.

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1800Z 21.4N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

INIT  19/1800Z 21.4N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.4N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 21.2N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 20.9N  74.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 21.0N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0000Z 21.6N  75.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[StretchCT]

How it started

How its going

[StretchCT]

Seems to be leveling off on intensity per vort messages but the last dropsonde in the eye wall was pretty intense with 116 mph winds max in column and 94mph at the surface. 

 

Latest vort: 990mb, closed circular 6nm wide eye, sfmr in 91mph/out 71mph. Flight in 89mph/out 62. 

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:17Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Storm Name: Oscar
Storm Number & Year: 16 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 27

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.42N 70.81W
B. Center Fix Location: 21 statute miles (34 km) to the E (99°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,037m (9,964ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.24 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 185° at 33kts (From the S at 38mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (19°) of center fix at 19:04:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 118° at 77kts (From the ESE at 88.6mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (19°) of center fix at 19:04:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 62kts (71.3mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the SSE (158°) of center fix at 19:07:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 263° at 54kts (From the W at 62.1mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 1 nautical miles to the SSE/S (169°) of center fix at 19:06:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,040m (9,974ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NNE (19°) from the flight level center at 19:04:30Z

Not sure if they increase to 85mph with the sonde data and sfmr data showing stronger surface winds. 

[StretchCT]

 

5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 19
Location: 21.4°N 71.1°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Discussion notes: "unexpected day", in-situ aircraft obs were invaluable, remote sensing satellite estimates were/(are) much lower. Scat pass went right over only at 42kts. Meanwhile flight level winds were 77kts, droposondes had an average wind of 85kts (100mph) and surface wind of 82kts (96mph).  They used a blend of the flight level and drop winds for the advisory increasing to 85 mph. H Winds are only 5 miles from center. TS winds are 30 miles out. Intensity it tricky due to the small core, and because no model has it right. 

Spoiler

Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

It is fair to say its been an unexpected day with regards to Oscar. 
After being upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, a 
resources-permitting Air Force Reconnaissance mission found that 
Oscar was much stronger than anticipated and in fact was a tiny 
hurricane, prompting the earlier special advisory at 18 UTC.  Having 
these critical in-situ aircraft observations has been invaluable to 
diagnosing the current intensity of the storm, and we thank the crew 
for flying this mission on short notice this morning. It is worth 
noting that remote sensing satellite intensity estimates are 
currently much lower, with the highest objective estimate at 55 kt 
from a DMINT AMSR2 pass at 1830 UTC. For what its worth, ASCAT-B/C 
also hit the small core of Oscar, only showing a peak wind retrieval 
of 42 kt from both passes and only a handful of other retrievals 
with tropical-storm-force winds. The last Air Force Reconnaissance 
leg through Oscar found peak 700-mb flight level winds of 77 kt. A 
dropsonde released in the northeast eyewall also had a 150 m layer 
mean average wind of 85 kt with a surface wind gust of 82 kt. A 
blend of the flight level and dropsonde data supports a wind speed 
of 75 kt this advisory. The wind field of Oscar is very small, with 
hurricane-force winds only extending out 5 n mi from the center, 
with a blend of aircraft and scatterometer data suggesting 
tropical-storm-force winds only extending about 30 n mi, primarily 
in the northern semicircle.  

Oscar has maintained a westward motion today, with recon fixes 
indicating an estimated motion of 275/9 kt. This motion, with a 
subtle shift a little more south of due west is anticipated over the 
next 24-36 h. On the current track, Oscar will pass very near 
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and Southeastern Bahamas 
this evening and tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. 
The narrow mid-level ridge that is currently steering the system is 
soon expected to become eroded by a longwave trough slowly sagging 
southward across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, resulting in 
Oscar slowing down and bending a bit south of due west. Thereafter, 
as the trough produces a more pronounced weakness north of the 
hurricane, Oscar will likely execute a very slow but sharp turn to 
the north and then northeast. However, this is still expected to 
bring Oscar close to or over parts of eastern Cuba, before turning 
back northeastward. The latest NHC forecast track is a little 
further east of the prior forecast, blending the consensus aids TVCA 
and HCCA with the ECMWF model, which has been one of the few 
models that has depicted Oscar with much vertical coherence. 

The intensity forecast for Oscar is tricky, due to both the very 
small inner-core wind field associated with the hurricane, and the 
fact that none of the guidance (either global models, or 
hurricane-regional models) is depicting the current intensity right 
now. The last set of aircraft observations suggest the pressure is 
at least not rapidly dropping, with the final dropsonde providing an 
estimate of 987 mb. The NHC intensity forecast will show a bit more 
intensification, but I suspect the tiny hurricane will be quite 
susceptible to the increasingly negative environmental conditions. 
SHIPS guidance indicates that northwesterly vertical wind shear 
increases above 20 kt after 24 h and above 30 kt beyond 60 h. Very 
dry mid-level air exists in that region upstream of Oscar, and the 
storm could weaken rather quickly from 36-60 h. As we saw today, 
small systems like Oscar are often prone to rapid intensity 
changes, either up or down. After 96 h, most of the guidance that is 
able to depict Oscar shows it ultimately being absorbed by the 
deep-layer trough in the northwestern Atlantic, and the latest 
forecast still shows Oscar dissipating by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Oscar is expected to bring hurricane conditions to portions of 
the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this 
evening and overnight, and could bring hurricane conditions to 
eastern Cuba during the next day or two. A Hurricane Warning is in 
effect for the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas, and a 
Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. 

2. Oscar is expected to produce a dangerous storm surge on the
Turks and Caicos Islands beginning this evening. Minor coastal 
flooding is also possible along the north shore of Cuba later on 
Sunday. 

3. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These
rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 21.4N  71.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 21.2N  72.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 21.0N  74.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.9N  74.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.2N  75.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 21.9N  75.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 23.3N  74.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 21.4N  71.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 21.2N  72.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 21.0N  74.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.9N  74.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.2N  75.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  22/0600Z 21.9N  75.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 23.3N  74.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

You can see the struggle on the west side.  Some dry air, shear from the NNE coming over that side. Part of me wants to say that NE shear was helping it earlier. But it keeps pulsing away. 

[Sentinel]

Um. Hello Oscar? I'm sorry, you came from where???

[StretchCT]

Oscar is holding its own and expected to make landfall in eastern Cuba later today.  This plus some shear should help knock it down to a TS. It will hang around a while then head NE.

11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 20
Location: 20.7°N 73.9°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph
 

 

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

Edited Sunday at 03:44 PM by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

[clm]

Bermuda bound?

[StretchCT]

Still some high winds in the column earlier this morning.

2:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 20
Location: 20.6°N 74.1°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, clm said:

Bermuda bound?

Wide range of possibilities.

 

 

[StretchCT]

Radar from Gitmo https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

Hurricane Oscar Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
550 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...HURRICANE OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN 
CUBA...

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that Oscar has made 
landfall in the Cuban province of Guantanamo near the city of 
Baracoa at 550 PM EDT (2150 UTC).  The maximum sustained winds are 
near 80 mph (130 km/h) based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter observations.  The latest minimum central pressure estimated 
from the earlier reconnaissance data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

SUMMARY OF 550 PM EDT...2150 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 74.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM ESE OF BARACOA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES