TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: If an ERC don't happen really soon, then this may go there all on its own - AND it will blow my frickin mind even more I wish I had a microwave shot, sat shows the eye clearing looking stronger. Pinhole tight eyes tend to carry some gnarly peak winds 🤮 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Quote The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This starting to give Katrina vibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Them pinhole hurricanes never disappoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The category beyond a 5 also starts with the same letter as 5, also has 4 letters - ends in CK though. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 32 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still dropping latitude a bit. Might pray for the north barrier islands of the Yucatan, but the land interaction is the best hope for weakening this M before the shear effects later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Atlantic basin Canes with winds over 200mph is a very short list Hurricane Allan at 190 is all I come up with so far 😮 Stretch - you got more on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: I don't know what the NHC will do with this last pass through. It's horrifying. Two readings of surface winds over 200mph. That is horrifying. I hope that weakening it's supposed to do is legit because otherwise we are looking at a labor day hurricane redux into Tampa instead of the sparsely populated keys of the 1930s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My only question now is = how low can it go? Can it challenge the 882mb of Wilma or 888 of Gilbert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Atlantic basin Canes with winds over 200mph is a very short list Hurricane Allan at 190 is all I come up with so far 😮 Stretch - you got more on this? I don’t think we’ve had any yet. Typically reserve the max for long term cape verde canes. Edited October 7 by TLChip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The runs (models) seem to be coming in at lower lat in 12z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 37 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This starting to give Katrina vibes For people on the western coast of Florida, I think I would start portraying this as Florida's Hurricane Katrina. Short and to the point, and it grabs the attention because most people remember what Katrina did to the Gulf coast. The comparison is probably not entirely accurate as the max storm surge height won't get that high, but this is a dire situation that is unfolding and it's compounded by the damage that Helene caused to that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 This is the AI-RI from 12z. The Maximum potential intensity was 182kts or 209 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 59 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: Fortunately the atmosphere has limits if we use Maximum Potential Intensity for this area it's lower limit would be in the 900-910 MB range. I assume an ERC will occur sooner than later too. Wilma would like a word with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, TLChip said: cat 5 is catastrophic damage, it doesn’t change after that. Even canes that peaked 200+ or sub 900mb. Unfortunately that language still doesn't resonate with some folks. Cat 6 needs to be "You will likely die" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Anyone watching TWC? Their flood simulation is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Last in and out on HDOBS - looks like it came in from the NW and out the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Here is Levi's updated video today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 This is peak surge forecast as of 11am edt. Guessing it's based off a Cat 3 landfall. The surge from Helene was higher where it made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 So how unusual is it to see an E/SE moving category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin? Well, it's never happened before. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cirrus Condition Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Is it possible that Milton will suck in and merge with that blob to the NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: For people on the western coast of Florida, I think I would start portraying this as Florida's Hurricane Katrina. Short and to the point, and it grabs the attention because most people remember what Katrina did to the Gulf coast. The comparison is probably not entirely accurate as the max storm surge height won't get that high, but this is a dire situation that is unfolding and it's compounded by the damage that Helene caused to that area. This might be something that grabs their attention. That's needed at this time. It's a long standing joke about how hurricanes keep missing Tampa. Tampa probably not gonna miss this one, and it's fitting it's a doozy. They need to be shaken awake imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: This is peak surge forecast as of 11am edt. Guessing it's based off a Cat 3 landfall. The surge from Helene was higher where it made landfall. I'll take the over. That area is capable of higher surge and this extreme magnitude of rapid strengthening happening earlier than expected will start building the surge faster than originally anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Wow, the rate of pressure dropping in Milton is ridiculous. Newest pass was 912mb Edited October 7 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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