snowlover2 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Cat 5 now! Quote Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches). SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: I don't know what the NHC will do with this last pass through. It's horrifying. Two readings of surface winds over 200mph. Have my answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 HDOBS from the other side. 183mph sfmr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Last pass … holy mother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This is getting beyond real for Tampa. A true nightmare scenario is unfolding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 About 925 mb extrapolated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I don’t comment much on hurricanes I just follow but that’s about as perfect of a buzzsaw powerhouse hurricane you can get surreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Presentation just continues to look better and better. Might max out here if this keeps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 CATEGORY 5 MILTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Stadium seating, pinhole now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 The eye is so small that you can't see down it with the angle from the satellite. You need the sites that's "correct" the image. Wobbling along. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 What do they do when it maxes out since there isn’t a Cat 6 right now? Good grief. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: What do they do when it maxes out since there isn’t a Cat 6 right now? Good grief. That's a really good question lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, BuckeyeGal said: What do they do when it maxes out since there isn’t a Cat 6 right now? Good grief. Just call it an extremely dangerous and life threatening historic cat 5. There’s a whole ice berg theory on cat 6 and F-6 hurricanes and tornadoes. It’s a legitimate discussion in the weather community that has been acknowledged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 Wow. https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 Just now, Hassaywx1223 said: Just call it an extremely dangerous and life threatening historic cat 5. There’s a whole ice berg theory on cat 6 and F-6 hurricanes and tornadoes. It’s a legitimate discussion in the weather community that has been acknowledged Cat 5’s already are that, though. I saw some of the discussion threads for the Cat 6 push. Maybe they add pluses. Cat 5+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 31 minutes ago, Burr said: Hey, everyone! Been working on a site since 7:00 this morning… what did I miss? … Oh. It looks like it's feeding off that blob to the northeast. Kinda like a black hole absorbing a nearby star. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) This storm is already a cat5 in the Gulf with nothing to stop it until maybe erc Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted October 7 Meteorologist Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: What do they do when it maxes out since there isn’t a Cat 6 right now? Good grief. Fortunately the atmosphere has limits if we use Maximum Potential Intensity for this area it's lower limit would be in the 900-910 MB range. I assume an ERC will occur sooner than later too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Worse case scenario at this point is one or two EWRCs before landfall. Max winds may drop but the system will expand with hazards reaching a far greater area than just the immediate area of wherever landfall ends up being. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just now, BuckeyeGal said: What do they do when it maxes out since there isn’t a Cat 6 right now? Good grief. cat 5 is catastrophic damage, it doesn’t change after that. Even canes that peaked 200+ or sub 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Vortex summary: 925mb, 10nm wide eye, Max inbound sfmr wind (5nm SW of center) 202mph. Max inbound flight level 182 mph, Max outbound sfmr 183mph. Max temp inside eye 21C, outside eye 9C. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 16:07Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 26 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 15:41:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.69N 91.62W B. Center Fix Location: 140 statute miles (225 km) to the WNW (291°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,441m (8,009ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 925mb (27.32 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 315° at 6kts (From the NW at 7mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 176kts (202.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SW (226°) of center fix at 15:40:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 313° at 158kts (From the NW at 181.8mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SW (226°) of center fix at 15:40:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 159kts (183.0mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (29°) of center fix at 15:43:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 116° at 141kts (From the ESE at 162.3mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 15:43:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,910m (9,547ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 158kts (~ 181.8mph) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the SW (226°) from the flight level center at 15:40:00Z 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Still dropping latitude a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 minutes ago, Rich Mac said: It looks like it's feeding off that blob to the northeast. Kinda like a black hole absorbing a nearby star. Great point - those blobs are only on the absolute beasts - their outflow directly injects to the inflow of the parent. Think of embryonic sacs, in a way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 12 minutes ago, TLChip said: cat 5 is catastrophic damage, it doesn’t change after that. Even canes that peaked 200+ or sub 900mb. If an ERC don't happen really soon, then this may go there all on its own - AND it will blow my frickin mind even more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now