mikeysed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Thinking it may reach 165 170 mph winds at its height... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 Holy rapid intensification, Batman. I hope Floridians are taking this thing seriously. I know so many of them are used to hunkering down, but my gosh. 😞 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Very impressive!!! Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 This potentially very very bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 The inundation maps are horrific, particularly south of Tampahttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/093335.shtml?inundation#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Absolutely ridiculous how fast this storm is bombing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Latest vort message: 935mb, 8nm wide eye, 156.5mph inbound surface winds. 152mph outbound surface winds. 168mph max flight level winds. Should be really close to cat 5. Do they pull the trigger? Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:37Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 18 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:08:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.73N 91.84W B. Center Fix Location: 154 statute miles (248 km) to the WNW (290°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,534m (8,314ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 45° at 17kts (From the NE at 20mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 136kts (156.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SE (140°) of center fix at 14:07:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 139kts (From the SW at 160.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 14:06:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 132kts (151.9mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW (303°) of center fix at 14:10:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 29° at 134kts (From the NNE at 154.2mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW (303°) of center fix at 14:10:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center at 12:46:00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 NW Eyewall had winds of 211 mph at 900mb. The average wind for the column was 159mph. Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 275° (from the W) - Wind Speed: 138 knots (159 mph) 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Latest vort message: 935mb, 8nm wide eye, 156.5mph inbound surface winds. 152mph outbound surface winds. 168mph max flight level winds. Should be really close to cat 5. Do they pull the trigger? Reveal hidden contents Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 14:37Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 18 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 14:08:40Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.73N 91.84W B. Center Fix Location: 154 statute miles (248 km) to the WNW (290°) from Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,534m (8,314ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 935mb (27.61 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 45° at 17kts (From the NE at 20mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 136kts (156.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SE (140°) of center fix at 14:07:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 139kts (From the SW at 160.0mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE (139°) of center fix at 14:06:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 132kts (151.9mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW (303°) of center fix at 14:10:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 29° at 134kts (From the NNE at 154.2mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the WNW (303°) of center fix at 14:10:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center at 12:46:00Z Oh - it's there alright - solid FIVE all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 I'd be very watchful in S Fl now - TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I'd be very watchful in S Fl now - TBH. Taking action... winds could arrive tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 11am discussion notes: small eye becoming better defined. peak flight wind 146kt, dropsonde 933 mb, The intensification is 80kts in 24 hrs, which Wilma and Felix (2007) have only intensified faster, 22mb drop in 4 hours. Mexico will be hit by hurricane force winds. Track shifted a bit north after sideswiping Mexico. Forecast to be Cat 5 (165mph officially forecast). Eyewall replacements will limit strengthening and perhaps weaken it during the next 36hrs. However, any ERC will cause it to grow in size. After 36 hrs, the storm will hit some shear and dry air entrainment which should cause it to weaken substantially, but still be a major hurricane at landfall. Spoiler Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt. Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 NHC says 40% chance of hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Just warned my family outside of Tampa, get ready don’t screw around. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 (edited) Wondering (hoping) if interaction with land, even if the eye passes 30-50 miles tot the north, can disrupt the process, bring more dry air in. Mexican radar Edited October 7 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said: Holy rapid intensification, Batman. I hope Floridians are taking this thing seriously. I know so many of them are used to hunkering down, but my gosh. 😞 Anybody in the storm surge area needs to gtfo. We've already seen what that looks like a few weeks ago and this is gonna be so much worse because it's going to be in a highly populated area instead of a wildlife preserve. And these winds are gonna be stupid too. I know it's supposed to weaken before landfall but a weakening cat 5 monster is different than a weakening 4 or 3. The way this thing us blowing up this morning is frightening. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Hey, everyone! Been working on a site since 7:00 this morning… what did I miss? … Oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Burr said: Hey, everyone! Been working on a site since 7:00 this morning… what did I miss? … Oh. A lot, when I left at 5 this morning we didn’t have a sawblade. anyone have microwave shots? Edited October 7 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 I don't know what the NHC will do with this last pass through. It's horrifying. Two readings of surface winds over 200mph. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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