Admin MaineJay Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Pink skies at night This multispectral band is great for the nighttime. https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=799.7142944335938&y=878&z=2&angle=0&im=54&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=60&motion=loop&maps[borders]=white&maps[lat]=white&p[0]=eumetsat_tropical_airmass_rgb&opacity[0]=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 The vortex message has it as a closed eye 15nm wide. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Bombing out right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Speaking of humor We gotta find the twisted freak who put both Milton and Beryl on the names list this season - a give them a stern talking to. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 My beloved Sanibel gonna get its teeth kicked in again I'm afraid 😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 120 mph at 954 mb at 7am ET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 Anyone recall a strengthening major hurricane moving SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 7 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Anyone recall a strengthening major hurricane moving SE? Very rare 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) 😬 Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 Guess we gotta hope he wobbles far enough south to interact with land and disrupts Milton. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 11 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Guess we gotta hope he wobbles far enough south to interact with land and disrupts Milton. The Yucatan is so flat - can it really hurt much? I suspect not enough anyway. IOW - I think that the feed off the CAG origin region will be sufficient to overcome effect from any land interaction - given how little resistance that land will lead to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 yep - very close to CAT4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) This is entirely being ventilated - you can see it on the divergence maps! Like a fire up and open flue chimney - it's gonna ROAR I doubt that even SHR will stop it now. I'm very close to calling Cat5 certainty. Edited October 7 by Undertakerson2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 S/e quadrant, last past - into the 130mph+ range. I'm calling this a Cat4 as of RN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: This is entirely being ventilated - you can see it on the divergence maps! Like a fire up and open flue chimney - it's gonna ROAR I doubt that even SHR will stop it now. I'm very close to calling Cat5 certainty. Let’s just hope that predicted weakening does come to fruition even though impacts will still be major from even a previous CAT 5 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 The magnitude of RI right now is very remarkable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 1am: 975 mb 4am: 972mb 6am: 954 mb 7am: 945 mb Recon has 141kt sfmr winds143kt flight winds. https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2024&product=hdob&storm=Milton&mission=08&agency=AF&ob=10-07-124200-27-941.0-143-141 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 No models are even close to what is happening. Latest recon has 939 extrapolated now and 945mb per NHC at 12Z. 6z model runs for 12z this morning: HWRF 963 HMON 970 HAFS A 973 HAFS B 962 GFS 977 Euro 989 Icon 982 UKIE (0z) 993 Canadian (0z) 988 RAP (11z) 994 NAM 984 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 'm calling this a Cat4 as of RN NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected distance from Tampa ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 I'd be really nervous on the north coast of the Yucatan right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Vortex message highlights from the last pass through. 943mb, eye circular closed 10nm diameter. Inbound surface winds 131 mph. Outbound max surface wind 162 mph. Additional remarks: SEVERE TURBULENCE IN SW EYE WALL. I've read a lot of vortex messages and don't recall one that severe turbulence all in caps. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 13:13Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 12:44:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.74N 92.07W B. Center Fix Location: 165 statute miles (266 km) to the NW (323°) from Campeche, Campeche, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,591m (8,501ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 360° at 22kts (From the N at 25mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 114kts (131.2mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (30°) of center fix at 12:42:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 101kts (From the ESE at 116.2mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix at 12:42:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 141kts (162.3mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) of center fix at 12:46:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 297° at 146kts (From the WNW at 168.0mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) of center fix at 12:46:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (196°) from the flight level center at 12:46:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SEVERE TURBULENCE IN SW EYEWALL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 CRAZY!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) I would venture to say we may be at or very close to cat5 right now Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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