RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 3 minutes ago, Sentinel said: I don't think we want to sensationalize, however, it is a damned if you do and damned if you dont. IF this storm had come in just 12-15 miles furhter North, Tampa would have had significant surge and it would have been a completely different story. Then the local Emergency Management Team would have looked like fools and been Liable (potentially criminally in todays society, but most definately civily - the municipality) if they had downplayed the situation. Lets look at Asheville. The local weather and emergency management teams put out catastrophic warnings. It EXCEEDED the warnings. The damage is absolutely devestating and we still cannot reach the area. Granted, this is a -hopefully- once in a generational storm. Likewise, this storm did not expand as large in size as expected and slipped ever so slightly South of the projections. This had a MASSIVE change in regards to surge as topography is different to the South and Tampa had a reverse surge instead of 15+ feet. While yes, there are media outlets which want clicks, there is a rule in Risk Management and basically it is this - if the likelihood is low (all relative), but the impact is catastrophic, you prepare for it. The winds - They are always wrong. I am not quite sure why this is, but it must be studied. The Surge - This is something you simply cannot predict perfectly and the consequences are too dire to play with. Ocean depth and angle of attack also play havoc with storm surge, so yea it is more difficult to get perfect. But where it hit or the size wasn’t my point there, it is the predicted depth vs. actual where landfall is that is always too inflated. You are 100% correct that it would be foolish because of wobbles, late shifts , etc to mess with storm surge forecasts much. I guess it is just the number freak in me is that is bothered by inflated numbers . 👍 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 10 Admin Share Posted October 10 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Ocean depth and angle of attack also play havoc with storm surge, so yea it is more difficult to get perfect. But where it hit or the size wasn’t my point there, it is the predicted depth vs. actual where landfall is that is always too inflated. You are 100% correct that it would be foolish because of wobbles, late shifts , etc to mess with storm surge forecasts much. I guess it is just the number freak in me is that is bothered by inflated numbers . 👍 I can understand that. I think the issue is multi-fold. 1) We live in a world where much of society always expect the worst. In fact, if it is not the worst, it is almost as if it is a let down. It is a really weird dichotomy. 2) Damage and destruction is -in some ways- entertainment. This is not to criticize or judge, it is just an observation. 3) Becuase of things being sensationalized, much of society does not understand the true power of wind and water. So if they hear 75 MPH winds and 5 foot storm surge, while living on the coast, they think nothing of it. Meanwhile, this is potentially devestating. Yet they hear 155 MPH and 20 foot storm surge and, well, that means something to them (while they are instagramming themselves drowning, hoping to hit 1 Million Likes before they pass away... but I digress). 4) People have simply become desensitized to traumatic events. 5) I could go on and on and on ... 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) 1 hour ago, Sentinel said: I can understand that. I think the issue is multi-fold. 1) We live in a world where much of society always expect the worst. In fact, if it is not the worst, it is almost as if it is a let down. It is a really weird dichotomy. 2) Damage and destruction is -in some ways- entertainment. This is not to criticize or judge, it is just an observation. 3) Becuase of things being sensationalized, much of society does not understand the true power of wind and water. So if they hear 75 MPH winds and 5 foot storm surge, while living on the coast, they think nothing of it. Meanwhile, this is potentially devestating. Yet they hear 155 MPH and 20 foot storm surge and, well, that means something to them (while they are instagramming themselves drowning, hoping to hit 1 Million Likes before they pass away... but I digress). 4) People have simply become desensitized to traumatic events. 5) I could go on and on and on ... You nailed it, people are only concerned with records and numbers, any less and it’s not newsworthy. The weird part is many want/expect the worst but don’t fully prepare for it. Sorry the damage wasn’t as bad as we thought it could be? It should just be a relief. Edited October 10 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11 Thanks whoever updated- I was tied up pretty bad today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 (edited) https://apple.news/A0nxAMC21S-WMeF0dCHiU-Q Edited October 11 by Burr 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 This is off topic but those who have clear skies should head outside as the northern lights can be seen as far south as Florida. KPI index is nearly off the charts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 (edited) Long iPhone exposures from a farm nearby… just a smudge of rosy hue in the skyglow Edited October 11 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 I say let accountants and number freaks take over the weather forecasting world. We will reduce this nonsense to percentages, probabilities , reduced risk( cuz we hate risk) , and so much else. In THIS world , we would no longer have winds overestimated by 40% , storm surges over estimated by 20% +, we will better estimate pressures based on way too much historical research, and nail the landfall same. Tell me one thing that you could possibly dispute about this plan, other than the fact that accountants and number freaks are meek , struggle to speak up, struggle to make decisions until we are 100% sure( so yes, maybe an errant storm could hit Europe before we make a call) , we are black& white( no gray area chit) , and are ultra conservative (so no storm will exceed 73.9 mph, storm surges will be capped at 11 and 11/12 inches) . Most importantly, you signed a “limitation” agreement that you signed blindly, cuz you couldn’t comprehend it, or it was so painful a read that you just caved. So, you have no recourse while you watch your $5,000 flat screen sail out the back door. The only fly in the ointment might be that weather is unpredictable . But you signed the limitation agreement , which means we are exonerated from by the “ Act of God” thang. No idea how that got through the signing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Just a reminder, we do have a space area for the auroa pics. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 2 hours ago, TLChip said: Just a reminder, we do have a space area for the auroa pics. Have you been looking at MRI's of my head again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 14 hours ago, TLChip said: You nailed it, people are only concerned with records and numbers, any less and it’s not newsworthy. The weird part is many want/expect the worst but don’t fully prepare for it. Sorry the damage wasn’t as bad as we thought it could be? It should just be a relief. Exactly. I'd rather be evacuated for nothing than to stay for something and pay the price. We should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Otherwise one day we'll get a Cat 5 hit at landfall and destroy areas and then hear "you didn't warn us", "you didn't prepare us for the worst", et.c..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 @Burr Any word on your uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 18 hours ago, Burr said: https://apple.news/A0nxAMC21S-WMeF0dCHiU-Q This could be used for one heck of a beer commercial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11 Still a bunch of river flooding going on. Purple is major flooding, red moderate. Circle is active, square is forecast. So a purple square with red circle indicates that it's currently moderate flooding going into major. Main difference with Florida flooding from NC flooding (or CT) is that the hills don't cause as many problems, but the water also sticks around longer. Cyprus creek to exceed record shortly. Hillsborough river over record St Johns near or over record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11 Author Moderators Share Posted October 11 Still a lot of customers out of power. Gas shortages too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 8 hours ago, clm said: @Burr Any word on your uncle? He just got power back about an hour ago, and he’s under a boil-water advisory. Thank you for asking!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 1 hour ago, Burr said: He just got power back about an hour ago, and he’s under a boil-water advisory. Thank you for asking!! Good to hear he made it through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted Saturday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:53 PM https://share.newsbreak.com/99gcpjd4?s=i16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM https://share.newsbreak.com/99gmhivs?s=i16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted Sunday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:17 AM Thank God this hurricane weakened before it hit Florida 🙏🏿 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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