Major Hurricane Milton | Peak 180mph 897 mb | Advisories Discontinued

[StretchCT]

This seems dramatic, confirmed by numerous sources 

[Hassaywx1223]

Just now, StretchCT said:

This seems dramatic, confirmed by numerous sources 

Well good no injuries that’s the good thing! Now the even better thing is that is forces rays ownership to finally do something for the franchise sorry my other passion is sports and this is long over due can’t expect a stadium/dome built in the early 90s without any upgrades at all to last nearly 35 years with old technology and something like this not happen I mean snow weight made the done in Minnesota collapse they should of saw this coming 

[Burr]

Reposting a map from NHC from Sunday.  Not too shabby.

[TLChip]

Great tracking all. Always nice to be a part of this community, not having any skin in the game for snowfall totals may help 🤣

[TLChip]

Damage from family in the Lutz area. Curious what flooding happened last night.

[Harley8778]

Just wanted to take this time to thank you all for the wealth of information that has been shared during this storm. You guys and girls are great.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

8 hours ago, Sentinel said:

Insurance is really really in trouble here. You are 100% correct. 

Are you in Florida now??

[clm]

16 hours ago, Jim said:

Not only will that not save the roof if the winds are strong enough, it won't save the cars, it won't keep the cars or other objects from smashing into the house, it won't stop fire that pops up or spreads from adjacent properties, and it does nothing to prevent flood damage. 

Give them some credit.  They created some projectiles and when one of those stakes fail (its a given), a strap is going to whip around like crazy.

[Sentinel]

52 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Are you in Florida now??

No, no... I meant to say there*. Typo on mobile phone. 🫣🫣

[clm]

3 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

No, no... I meant to say there*. Typo on mobile phone. 🫣🫣

[Poco]

Gefs looking quite fertile

another CAG in a week. Background continental wave state could allow for another window for something to go warm core similar to how Milton evolved.  The deeper the night jets go and the wavier the continental flow gets as we get progress further intrasesonally is what could keep this muted however could still see something happening again in 10 days or so. 
 

continue to monitor the nhc 7day outlook/disco, take care everyone and hope everyone made it through this one safely. Cheers 

 

 

[Pghsnow]

My sister is in Odessa, NW of Tampa and other than the lake rising not much damage at all. Had 1 tree get damaged. But nothing to the house.

[MesoscaleBanding]

This is the aftermath in my parents' neighborhood on Sarasota Bay. Thankfully, storm surge was very minimal due to landfall happening just south of their location...

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/11LyEvyHYZCXMHvd/?mibextid=lOuIew

[Burr]

[Burr]

Have yet to hear from my uncle in St Pete, so I believe he’s now without juice and cell service.

[Arctic Outbreak]

Sorry, but it's tough for me to take pity on Floridians, especially transplants. They flaunt their warm temperatures all winter long like they're smarter for living there or something. This is the price they pay for choosing to live in harms way!

[Hassaywx1223]

28 minutes ago, Arctic Outbreak said:

Sorry, but it's tough for me to take pity on Floridians, especially transplants. They flaunt their warm temperatures all winter long like they're smarter for living there or something. This is the price they pay for choosing to live in harms way!

I hope they’re all okay. But there’s the other side to it all these people want to move south and move into flood plains and move onto bays within feet of the ocean and then when an ocean storm happens. It’s “unprecedented catastrophic and they can’t believe it happens” I think people are getting to greedy moving literally in the ocean basically and insurance companies and reality companies letting it happen. hurricanes are the Atlantic and gulf earthquakes are the west coast blizzard and harsh cold are the north every area has it pros and cons if you aren’t prepared for the bad then you shouldn’t live there 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

One thing i do think would help with people not evacuating is to try and fine tune the scales of the hurricanes and some of the model projections. This might help the “crying wolf” allegations. The winds speeds are an absolute joke, period. That is aloft, not ground level- which is a huge difference and in this day and age we should be able to estimate ground level. Also note that when the are saying 120 mph, that is sustained- not gusts! Helene, 140 mph  sustained at landfall; highest gust reported 99 mph. Milton, a little better at 120 sustained; highest gust reported 107. Also note that gust forecasts can be 20-40 higher than sustained. 
Storm surge: hate to say it, but usually over amped also. Highest report i have seen is around 8 feet or so. Latest model runs at landfall had it at 12-15 feet. Huge difference people. I get storm surge is worst case scenario, but still, and have noticed these issues with previous canes.

Not trying to minimize the extensive damage caused by the last 2 storms. Just saying that the rallying call of a lot that stay is partly because of the above….

[BossaNova]

Speaking of storm surge, StretchCT was posting about reverse surge in Tampa Bay when Milton was coming on shore and there seems to have been little surge there overall. I was under the impression a large hurricane would be broadly pushing the water ahead of it but apparently the reverse direction winds north of Milton were enough to overcome that? Very interesting, and fortunate (not for places to the south of the eye). I don't recall anyone mentioning this in the days and hours leading up to landfall - does that mean it was something we don't normally see or was it the very vulnerable and populous Tampa/St Pete area that just brought into focus?

[TLChip]

Here’s my biggest gripe with “fine tuning evac areas” and Ryan Hall gave a great example. Hurricanes wobble, every time, even the NHC says 24 hours the spread is typically 40 miles. That effects surge areas tremendously and it’s more than just surge, fresh water flooding/ extreme winds, all different reasons to get out. When they all go south at the same time your helpless. You have to go up in elevation or on a roof while debris is flying. Best place to be? Far away.

For 2 days your on the safer side with the water pushing away. Until it’s not and your in the bad side, well guess what emergency services are NOT coming to save you in surge during an eye wall 100%.

I had concerns with Tampa areas inland last night because of the amount of rain they were seeing. Same thing you need a rescue off your roof 40 miles from an eye wall in 70 sustained 90 gusts. Also a really bad spot to be in. That’s cat2/3 conditions.

There was flash flood emergencies from Tampa reaching towards Orlando. I’m sure people started getting calls for rescues because, they’re inland. They’re still in the path of the hurricane, now we have to put emergency responders at risk. 
 

I thought the NHC did a solid job of trying to get people out of the way, god forbid this storm was like the last few out of the gulf and intensified during landfall? This would be catastrophic, I’m not here to wish harm on anybody. People just need to be prepared for absolute worst case scenario. That means multiple problems at the same time. 
 

I do agree with Poc and think the SPC was light hearted on the outbreak that happened, now we’ve actually never seen anything like this with a cane and I’m not a tornado guy who knows what a strong setup looks like. 
 

Just because it seems rideable doesn’t mean you need to attempt it. This isn’t a localized tornado, pop up flash flood. These are big storms that typically give people ample time to get out of the way. We as weather nuts know the models are not always right, and we get the surprise rainfall/snowfall here and there, why even attempt that with a storm the size of a hurricane that was a cat 5 2 days prior. There’s almost nothing to gain from riding it out. The cost of a hotel room for a few nights worth you or your loved ones lives?

Edited October 10 by TLChip

[TLChip]

15 minutes ago, BossaNova said:

Speaking of storm surge, StretchCT was posting about reverse surge in Tampa Bay when Milton was coming on shore and there seems to have been little surge there overall. I was under the impression a large hurricane would be broadly pushing the water ahead of it but apparently the reverse direction winds north of Milton were enough to overcome that? Very interesting, and fortunate (not for places to the south of the eye). I don't recall anyone mentioning this in the days and hours leading up to landfall - does that mean it was something we don't normally see or was it the very vulnerable and populous Tampa/St Pete area that just brought into focus?

That’s a fairly common trait, during landing depending on wind one side will fair much worse. After landing the surge can still come in but the driving wind/waves on one side are going to be much greater than the other. 
 

The bays also can effect how much water gets pushed in, topography is important here.

Edited October 10 by TLChip

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

35 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Here’s my biggest gripe with “fine tuning evac areas” and Ryan Hall gave a great example. Hurricanes wobble, every time, even the NHC says 24 hours the spread is typically 40 miles. That effects surge areas tremendously and it’s more than just surge, fresh water flooding/ extreme winds, all different reasons to get out. When they all go south at the same time your helpless. You have to go up in elevation or on a roof while debris is flying. Best place to be? Far away.

For 2 days your on the safer side with the water pushing away. Until it’s not and your in the bad side, well guess what emergency services are NOT coming to save you in surge during an eye wall 100%.

I had concerns with Tampa areas inland last night because of the amount of rain they were seeing. Same thing you need a rescue off your roof 40 miles from an eye wall in 70 sustained 90 gusts. Also a really bad spot to be in. That’s cat2/3 conditions.

There was flash flood emergencies from Tampa reaching towards Orlando. I’m sure people started getting calls for rescues because, they’re inland. They’re still in the path of the hurricane, now we have to put emergency responders at risk. 
 

I thought the NHC did a solid job of trying to get people out of the way, god forbid this storm was like the last few out of the gulf and intensified during landfall? This would be catastrophic, I’m not here to wish harm on anybody. People just need to be prepared for absolute worst case scenario. That means multiple problems at the same time. 
 

I do agree with Poc and think the SPC was light hearted on the outbreak that happened, now we’ve actually never seen anything like this with a cane and I’m not a tornado guy who knows what a strong setup looks like. 
 

Just because it seems rideable doesn’t mean you need to attempt it. This isn’t a localized tornado, pop up flash flood. These are big storms that typically give people ample time to get out of the way. We as weather nuts know the models are not always right, and we get the surprise rainfall/snowfall here and there, why even attempt that with a storm the size of a hurricane that was a cat 5 2 days prior. There’s almost nothing to gain from riding it out. The cost of a hotel room for a few nights worth you or your loved ones lives?

Where did i say anything about fine tuning evac areas? All that i said the wind forecasts are an absolute joke , and have been for a long  time. And they are only for the canes, not any tornado’s spawned. And that doesn’t help with the “sensationalizing” arguments we keep hearing. And the storm surge forecast number seldom pan out. So why not do similar to what some do with snowstorms? Predicted amount, with worst case scenario. 
 And a real easy way to research and fine tune. Take the last 200 canes that hit and stat ‘em. What was forecasted sustained, gusts , vs. actual from the reporting stations. Same with storm surge. So if the results show wind speeds average  30% less than modeled/ forecasted, well then maybe adjust, or come up with a model calc for aloft vs. ground level. 

 

Yea i am oversimplifying, but man it would help with the crying wolf stuff.

[TLChip]

36 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Where did i say anything about fine tuning evac areas? All that i said the wind forecasts are an absolute joke , and have been for a long  time. And they are only for the canes, not any tornado’s spawned. And that doesn’t help with the “sensationalizing” arguments we keep hearing. And the storm surge forecast number seldom pan out. So why not do similar to what some do with snowstorms? Predicted amount, with worst case scenario. 
 And a real easy way to research and fine tune. Take the last 200 canes that hit and stat ‘em. What was forecasted sustained, gusts , vs. actual from the reporting stations. Same with storm surge. So if the results show wind speeds average  30% less than modeled/ forecasted, well then maybe adjust, or come up with a model calc for aloft vs. ground level. 

 

Yea i am oversimplifying, but man it would help with the crying wolf stuff.

It wasn’t directed at you(fresh from last nights live stream), I agree with the winds. I’ve just read a lot of crap (elsewhere mostly) today about why did we leave, no need, blah blah. Meanwhile if you reverse radar 24 hours pretty sure most of the state either saw tor warnings(PDS or not)/flash flood(emergency)/extreme wind emergency. 

Surge I wouldn’t mess with, it’s the killer, better safe than sorry on that front. Get away from the ocean during a cane is solid advice imo.

Nothing Mets/emergency services will stop the “crying wolf”/“sensationalizing”  I assume. Those same people are up in arms about all aspects of life, politics, weather, etc. just not happy people.

I am a fan of owning your own choices with the best information available to you.

edit: reading the page from the top I see how the quotes make it directed at RTC, apologies sir. 

Edited October 10 by TLChip

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

52 minutes ago, TLChip said:

It wasn’t directed at you(fresh from last nights live stream), I agree with the winds. I’ve just read a lot of crap (elsewhere mostly) today about why did we leave, no need, blah blah. Meanwhile if you reverse radar 24 hours pretty sure most of the state either saw tor warnings(PDS or not)/flash flood(emergency)/extreme wind emergency. 

Surge I wouldn’t mess with, it’s the killer, better safe than sorry on that front. Get away from the ocean during a cane is solid advice imo.

Nothing Mets/emergency services will stop the “crying wolf”/“sensationalizing”  I assume. Those same people are up in arms about all aspects of life, politics, weather, etc. just not happy people.

I am a fan of owning your own choices with the best information available to you.

And maybe i watch too much “The Weather Channel” 😀😀😀

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, TLChip said:

It wasn’t directed at you(fresh from last nights live stream), I agree with the winds. I’ve just read a lot of crap (elsewhere mostly) today about why did we leave, no need, blah blah. Meanwhile if you reverse radar 24 hours pretty sure most of the state either saw tor warnings(PDS or not)/flash flood(emergency)/extreme wind emergency. 

Surge I wouldn’t mess with, it’s the killer, better safe than sorry on that front. Get away from the ocean during a cane is solid advice imo.

Nothing Mets/emergency services will stop the “crying wolf”/“sensationalizing”  I assume. Those same people are up in arms about all aspects of life, politics, weather, etc. just not happy people.

I am a fan of owning your own choices with the best information available to you.

edit: reading the page from the top I see how the quotes make it directed at RTC, apologies sir. 

I don't think we want to sensationalize, however, it is a damned if you do and damned if you dont. IF this storm had come in just 12-15 miles furhter North, Tampa would have had significant surge and it would have been a completely different story. Then the local Emergency Management Team would have looked like fools and been Liable (potentially criminally in todays society, but most definately civily - the municipality) if they had downplayed the situation. Lets look at Asheville. The local weather and emergency management teams put out catastrophic warnings. It EXCEEDED the warnings. The damage is absolutely devestating and we still cannot reach the area. Granted, this is a -hopefully- once in a generational storm. 

Likewise, this storm did not expand as large in size as expected and slipped ever so slightly South of the projections. This had a MASSIVE change in regards to surge as topography is different to the South and Tampa had a reverse surge instead of 15+ feet. While yes, there are media outlets which want clicks, there is a rule in Risk Management and basically it is this - if the likelihood is low (all relative), but the impact is catastrophic, you prepare for it. 

The winds - They are always wrong. I am not quite sure why this is, but it must be studied. The Surge - This is something you simply cannot predict perfectly and the consequences are too dire to play with.