Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Looks like a pin eye has cleared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Damn the tornado warnings in Fl rn. Especially the ones over by Lake O. Not sure if Facebook embeds similar to Twitter. Tornado that was near Clewiston on SW side of the lake https://www.facebook.com/share/r/R2GbGf6LZ2MNpmd9/?mibextid=oKfgLb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Lightning back in the eye UT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Looks like a pin eye has cleared Definitely the most structure I've seen NW of circulation in the last few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Really strong returns coming on shore south of Cape Coral 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 More lightning next few frames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Might be a product glitch but last frame of RAMMB shows no lightning strikes at center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 13 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Might be a product glitch but last frame of RAMMB shows no lightning strikes at center I find the lightning strike stuff is usually a frame slow updating on RAMMB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Poco said: Eye is trying to re-establish itself within the convection. If it can do that, probably will maintain intensity up until landfall. I don't anticipate any strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 12z gfs top gusts in knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Poco said: There was no lightning for about 20 mins or so. Started up again. Edit: 15 mins loop below. Edited October 9 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Eastern side of eye now blowing up with high cloud tops and convection expanding quickly on the western flank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) For those better versed, when they talk about the shear shredding the cane. This increases tor chances correct? Colder dry air injection + shear = higher tor threat. crap iPad sketch at work 🤣 Edited October 9 by TLChip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 Gaining latitude, I'm not ruling out a Tampa, slightly north hit. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 12 minutes ago, Poco said: Eastern side of eye now blowing up with high cloud tops and convection expanding quickly on the western flank Made it through another ERC without too much degradation, which is bad news. That inner core is impregnable. Could even see some minor intensification later this afternoon, which would be quite a feat given the environment it's currently in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, Jpfalcon said: Bill Lumbergh. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted October 9 Meteorologist Share Posted October 9 (edited) 37 minutes ago, TLChip said: For those better versed, when they talk about the shear shredding the cane. This increases tor chances correct? Colder dry air injection + shear = higher tor threat. crap iPad sketch at work 🤣 From a purely tropical perspective: the "front right" quadrant of a tropical system will provide an enhanced shear & helicity environment for storms. That's where you'll often find low-topped/mini-supercell development like we're seeing today across S Florida. The "shear" that's increasing w/respect to Milton doesn't necessarily provide better shear for tornadogenesis. The boundary itself that's been draped over the state will enhanced some local probabilities, but the main driver will be the fact it's in the front right quadrant. Others can feel free to correct me given I'm not exactly an expert w/tropical met [I've dabbled w/2 courses]. Edited October 9 by MidwestWX Highlighted area for example hodograph 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Poco said: Jeeeeze a wedge that looks like it can be multi vortices that’s not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Mac Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 14 minutes ago, Poco said: Geez! I thought hurricane tornadoes were supposed to be small, quick hitters. That looks like an Oklahoma monster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 11 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: From a purely tropical perspective: the "front right" quadrant of a tropical system will provide an enhanced shear & helicity environment for storms. That's where you'll often find low-topped/mini-supercell development like we're seeing today across S Florida. The "shear" that's increasing w/respect to Milton doesn't necessarily provide better shear for tornadogenesis. The boundary itself that's been draped over the state will enhanced some local probabilities, but the main driver will be the fact it's in the front right quadrant. Others can feel free to correct me given I'm not exactly an expert w/tropical met [I've dabbled w/2 courses]. I'm not a met but I agree with this. When we talk about shear for tornado production, we're primarily focusing on low-level shear. When we talk about shear having a negative impact on a hurricane, we're typically talking about shear higher up in the atmosphere. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 Last vortex message mentioned concentric eyewall, 17nm and 35nm, 70% of inner eye closed, 50% of outer eye closed, both open in the south. 127mph sfmr winds. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 16:21Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 20 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:02:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.97N 84.30W B. Center Fix Location: 158 statute miles (255 km) to the WSW (253°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,576m (8,451ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 937mb (27.67 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 225° at 17kts (From the SW at 20mph) F. Eye Character: Open in the south G. Eye Shape: Concentric (has an inner and outer eye) G. Inner Eye Diameter: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) G. Outer Eye Diameter: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 110kts (126.6mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:57:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 156° at 121kts (From the SSE at 139.2mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) of center fix at 15:59:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 79kts (90.9mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 309° at 84kts (From the NW at 96.7mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix at 16:08:30Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 121kts (~ 139.2mph) which was observed 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the ENE (58°) from the flight level center at 15:59:30Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... INNER EYEWALL 70% CLOSED, OUTER 50% CLOSED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 17 minutes ago, Poco said: That is huge. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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