Admin Sentinel Posted October 6 Admin Share Posted October 6 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: The hurricane models are showing rapid weakening hours before landfall. Operationals (Euro/GFS) are showing it holds. Given the resilience we have seen as of late with these storms once they are developed, I would lean towards models showing them either holding or a slower weakening trend over the ones showing intensity dropping off a cliff. Developed storms tend to hold together more often than not. Not to mention that models have the weakening happening in the final hours. Any delay and the intensity holds longer. Another thing to consider is the fact that the interaction which causes the shear will likely greatly expand the storm and the footprint thereof. Rough situation all around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 At what point does any weakening even matter relative to surge and winds? I guess I mean, once a storm is a 4 or 5 is there a point in miles remaining to landfall at which it really doesn't matter and it becomes academic? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: At what point does any weakening even matter relative to surge and winds? I guess I mean, once a storm is a 4 or 5 is there a point in miles remaining to landfall at which it really doesn't matter and it becomes academic? Certainly would be academic in terms of surge. The weakening would have to be extreme and happen WELL before landfall to reduce the surge. Think back to Katrina... landfalled as a category 3 but had an extreme cat 5 type storm surge. Would make more of a difference for winds. That being said, the size of the storm matters. A larger, weaker storm really isn't better than a smaller, stronger storm in terms of damage as the former just spreads it out over a larger area. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Geez down 5mb in 3 hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 35 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I didn't believe this meme. So I went and looked. There are plenty of years with 3 hurricanes in October, 2010 had 5. 1995 had 5 too. And 1950. But I did not find three of them as hurricanes at the same time. Amazing stat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 (edited) 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I didn't believe this meme. So I went and looked. There are plenty of years with 3 hurricanes in October, 2010 had 5. 1995 had 5 too. And 1950. But I did not find three of them as hurricanes at the same time. Amazing stat. Coming from CIRA I trusted that the information had been vetted. The meme was my addition Edited October 6 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Coming from CIRA I trusted that the information had been vetted. The meme was my addition Oh I completely trust Phil, but still needed to see for myself. This lead me to wondering what years we didn't see a hurricane in the Atlantic. 2013, 2009, 1997, 1994, 1993, 1986, 1983 1982, 1972,1960, 1957, 1942,1938, 1925, 1920, 1919, 1918, 1917, 1914, 1911, 1907 And no named storms at all? 1994, 1993, 1986, 1983, 1972, 1960, 1925, 1920, 1918, 1917, 1914. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 AI-RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Microwave image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 Good night Milt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 6 Author Moderators Share Posted October 6 978 Extrapolated. 982 on sonde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH... 140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB... 28.97 INCHES Edited October 7 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Sonde in the eye measuring 979mb. Extrapolation showing ~976. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) Looking healthy to me… Cat 2 at the 11pm update? [edit: nope] Edited October 7 by Burr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC... INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH... 150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB... 28.85 INCHES Edited October 7 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 Max wind 104mph at 918mb. Its getting its stuff together. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 7 Author Moderators Share Posted October 7 11pm discussion highlights CDO with -80C cloud tops. Circulation is quite symmetric with little vertical tilt. Rapid intensification should continue next 1-2 days with Cat 4 intensity predicted. Weakening is expected prior to landfall. 115mph is expected at landfall. Spoiler Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72 hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 Watch the symmetrical expansion 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 GFS rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 GFS scrapes the Yucatan, and weakens from the land interaction before heading NE through the gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 (edited) RI DEFINITELY UNDERWAY NOW 😳 Edited October 7 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 7 Admin Share Posted October 7 3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: RI DEFINITELY UNDERWAY NOW 😳 Yeah. VHT being seen in the eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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