1816 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 27 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: We are in the times of Idiocracy infancy. My wx buddy just texted me that his Sister and BIL are seriously saying that Hamas and or Hezbulah are driving this I wish I was kidding. They're both kind of too busy hiding from Israel at the moment to be doing anything with the weather honestly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) It’s really trying to wrap convection/high cloud tops around again Edited October 9 by Poco 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, Hassaywx1223 said: For anyone with threads this is insane why would a boat even be in the hurricane https://www.threads.net/@187punish/post/DA48Q_Qua3C?xmt=AQGzPKu7uEM8j955zWyrQ4jNRFYUyPiLT12wd7G_EwAyLQ If they're going to sail into a damn hurricane the least they could do is show the waves. Very disappointed. Also, maybe better to just avoid the hurricane but what do I know. Maybe they're nautical hurricane hunters gathering data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 16 minutes ago, MidwestWX said: I wish I had these types of egos. Imagine thinking a human can have this type of influence over nature. Sheesh. Crazy, isn't it? Worse thing is I don't know how you can bring these kinds of people back to reality, given the echo chambers they live in regarding social media or their news sources. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 11am disco highlights: strong SW shear, asymmetric, dry air intrusion on western side, eye is cloud filled and open to the south. Shear is expected to increase and Milton to decrease, but with only 12 hours until impact it's either a 3 or 4 at landfall. Interaction with a front later today will increase the wind field to the north where there will be very strong gusty winds. It is moving NE at 15kts, models slow it down though and want to turn it east north east again. Unsure where landfall will be as they could be off by 20-30 miles. That makes a huge difference with respect to surge as the gradient of surge to the north is very sharp. Spoiler Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt. The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to 931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where Milton makes landfall. Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore. We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 8 minutes ago, 1816 said: They're both kind of too busy hiding from Israel at the moment to be doing anything with the weather honestly Then who is driving Milton??? Someone has to take over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 I hadn't noticed they upped the chance of hurricane winds to 60% on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, clm said: Then who is driving Milton??? Someone has to take over! Bill Lumbergh. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, clm said: Then who is driving Milton??? Someone has to take over! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I hadn't noticed they upped the chance of hurricane winds to 60% on the coast This is older no? CoC is above 25N now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Ok it's about to get real Florida. Buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 7 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I hadn't noticed they upped the chance of hurricane winds to 60% on the coast Just pulled off the NHC site. Up above 80 now, touch south as well from what I can tell on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, ak9971 said: This is older no? CoC is above 25N now They update 2x per day it seems. Last time was 1am. It's an ongoing theme of mine to point out the absurdity of this map. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This thing just won’t stop started to do this around noon yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 Just now, ak9971 said: Just pulled off the NHC site. Up above 80 now, touch south as well from what I can tell on my phone Weird, I still have the 1am after refresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Poco said: This thing just won’t stop I almost want it to continue to clear that eye out, but it would be devastating if this would gain any strength again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 It’s not giving up easily. Definitely headed more north than east, but wobbling. Each wobble could have major implications on exact landfall and worst surge locations. If it stays south of Tampa/St Pete, that’s a plus for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 NAM 3k did well with rainfall from Helene and Beryl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, Burr said: It’s not giving up easily. Definitely headed more north than east, but wobbling. Each wobble could have major implications on exact landfall and worst surge locations. If it stays south of Tampa/St Pete, that’s a plus for them. Suspect it will follow that outflow area presently on shore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Burr said: It’s not giving up easily. Definitely headed more north than east, but wobbling. Each wobble could have major implications on exact landfall and worst surge locations. If it stays south of Tampa/St Pete, that’s a plus for them. Also I really think thay eye is trying to clear out like right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Might be a product glitch but last frame of RAMMB shows no lightning strikes at center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Damn the tornado warnings in Fl rn. Especially the ones over by Lake O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 strong hooks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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