Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 How did I NOT notice that you can layer the Op models/Ensembles etc before this morning? (don't answer that...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Zoinks! ADT stayed above 7 (well above in fact) all night long. And now all flags are "Off" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. Spoiler Edited October 9 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Buh buh buh - I live (x) miles inland, I got nothing to worry about WRONG-O Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Down slightly on last RECON pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) I feel like we were supposed to be seeing some weakening by now, i'd prepare for the possibility of CAT 4 at least landfall unless insanely significant weakening can happen today. Edited October 9 by Neoncyclone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Now even I had to remind myself the meaning of "interpolated models" ( I suspected I knew but wished to confirm) That simply means modeling based on "new information". Not sure why NHC is going with the dynamic output - perhaps historical experience makes them lean that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, Neoncyclone said: I feel like we were supposed to be seeing some weakening by now, i'd prepare for the possibility of CAT 4 at least landfall unless insanely significant weakening can happen today. I keep reminding others (not here) that the "shelf" off the Fl coast extends pretty damn far out into the GOM. Those waters being relatively shoal will just not have enough depth of cold water which a storm can upwell. Because they will tend to remain warm, the fuel is still "high octane" and only atmospheric conditions can weaken it. NHC mentioned the baroclinic processes that just may overcome the shear. Part of that is Div/Conf I've been beating the drum on. It was SuperTyphoon (ST - Mark) who explained that baroclinic in layman's terms simply fancy word for thermal effect. So to me, we have 3 things to offset the 1 (SHR). Cat4 at landfall is definitely on the table ( I don't dare consider the prospect of Cat5 at landfall - I just can't...) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The H3 jet streak over N Fl is "in a battle" with the Divergence - they may actually mute each other (so to speak) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) Eyewall still looking well intact. few hrs old Edited October 9 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Back to a 3-4 NM pinhole, maybe smaller. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 To my point about PRE in the affected regions. I finally found the maps that show current watershed conditions. This is NOT good - not at all. Top that with the PRE that will be associated with our "blob" - heavy convective rains that will arrive prior to the bulk from Milton and, well.... you get the picture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Eye is on radar now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Eye is on radar now. Hints of ERC? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Mesoscale Discussion 2135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...much of southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Spoiler Valid 090945Z - 091315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The conditional risk of isolated tornadoes is expected to generally increase this morning, especially after sunrise. DISCUSSION...Low-level warming/moistening is noted on surface observations over southern FL this morning, as a boundary moves north toward a Miami to Naples line. Cells have generally languished over land due to the relatively cooler air mass in place, however, theta-e advection will continue to reduce that influence. Occasional supercells were noted off the western Peninsula, with renewed development noted recently within a zone well offshore. Radar also shows large-scale confluence bands/convection extending from western Cuba and curling northwestward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of Hurricane Milton. Additional bands such as these could form farther east, and affect parts of southern FL later this morning, and especially along the aforementioned baroclinic zone now pushing north across far southern FL. Shortly after sunrise, boundary-layer mixing will result in destabilization for surface-based parcels, with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. 0-1 SRH is already over 100 m2/s2, and should generally approach the 150-200 m2/s2 range through the day. This will result in a favorable environment for a few tornadic supercells, given upper 70s F dewpoints and heating. As such, a watch may be considered closer to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 AFDMLB - covering Lake County Florida. Basically the geographical center of the state. It's dreadfully worrisome. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MLB&issuedby=MLB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 22 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Hints of ERC? Let’s hope. That’s probably our best chance at a significantly weakened storm. It could open Milton up up to the shear and dry air while trying to reorganize. By significantly weakened that’s probably in the 125mph cat 3 territory that NHC has for their projected wind speeds at landfall. We are less than 24 hours from landfall so we need something to shake the apple tree otherwise forward momentum would most likely rule the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 Looks like it might be a fairly quick ERC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, MaineJay said: Looks like it might be a fairly quick ERC. Kind of an earmark of this storm. It's first one was stunningly quick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 Guessing the insurers are evacuating Florida quicker than the residents... 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Northwest quadrant struggling. Definitely looks similar to the last ERC in terms of the coldest cloudtops away from the eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) Possible weakening on the hunter fixes. Two are inside. One has made multiple runs, the other just made its first pass. Edited October 9 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, Burr said: Northwest quadrant struggling. Definitely looks similar to the last ERC in terms of the coldest cloudtops away from the eye ADT verifies - two flags now "on". Good news? Well only kind of. It's going to go from compact to two or more levels above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 9 hours ago, Burr said: This is not my uncle: He's campaigning to win a Darwin award 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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