Major Hurricane Milton | Peak 180mph 897 mb | Advisories Discontinued

[Burr]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES

[StretchCT]

NHC is pretty adamant of a Tampa Bradenton landfall over the last 3 days.  My gif won't load so here's the movie

 

 

 

[Chinook]

just wanted to mention this was the public advisory showing the newest minimum of pressure at an extraordinary 902mb and 165mph wind-- certainly in the list of some of the strongest storms I have seen in the Atlantic/EPacific in my entire time of tracking the weather

Quote

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES

 

[Rickrd]

I guess one good thing is the storm is and will continue to accelerate towards landfall and thereafter. Center looks to cross Florida, west to east in about 10 hrs. Thank God it isn’t a crawler. Still a lot of damage tho. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Why i luv weather. This storm was G of M born and bred. As Poc mentioned. Really rare. As of early Last weekend had only about a 30% chance of development, and attaining tropical storm characteristics. Then gets to 75 by late Sunday. Rare. Then goes all stupid from 90 to 180 in no time. Unprecedented. Then weakens, and redevelops into a Cat 5 at 165. Really , really rare once they drop off cat 5. Heads pretty much east, then some northeast  from the onset in western Gulf. Really rare- that’s why so tough to get a ground zero strike in Tampa. Oh , and finally, how many Cat 5’s have retained Cat 5/ high Cat 4 status  from late Mon thru at least early Wednesday? 

Milton has earned his name being retired into the Hall of Names no matter what hapoens ffom here

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ak9971]

Can’t say I’ve ever seen an MCD over water before for tornado discussion lol…. Some really solid signatures there. Southern Florida will escape the brunt of the wind it seems but quite the tornado threat going tomorrow. 

[Burr]

Mission 18 just took off

[Burr]

Does not appear to have curved more northerly than easterly yet.  (I.e. heading ENE still)

Edited October 9 by Burr

[clm]

3 hours ago, Burr said:

Yup!  That’s him!  Remember, kids, don’t believe what anyone tells you because they don’t know as much as you do.

So, the latest from my uncle in St Pete, not near the beach and at 39’ of elevation: 

“This is the latest. Yes, I'm safe, I did not evacuate, and thanks for thinking of me. I decided to stay here.  The news you see has lots of hype, so don't listen to the TV. First, I'm NOT in a flood zone and thus no mandatory evacuation and I wont be subjected to the storm water surge. I am worried about the wind. But, I've got a new hurricane proof roof.  Yes, it can still change, but it's heading to Sarasota now. And there's lots of wind shear that's going to break it up into a Cat 1 or Cat 2.  That means wind in Tampa is 100 mph, just like the wind I encountered when Helene went through/by here 2 weeks ago. Thanks for reaching out.”

 

At this point it is customary and required of you to reply with "Well thanks for another strand of gray hair".

[clm]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Cool thing about the tropical threads are that no one is here complaining they aren't getting the storm. 

And no one throwing in the towel either.

[clm]

17 minutes ago, Burr said:

Does not appear to have curved more northerly than easterly yet.  (I.e. heading ENE still)

Is that a mini Milton NE of it?

[Sentinel]

Just now, clm said:

Is that a mini Milton NE of it?

That is outflow creating strong precipitation/storms in front. 

It indicates significant outflow and a rather turbulent atmosphere. 

[Burr]

PRE definitely going to occur

[Sentinel]

2 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

That is outflow creating strong precipitation/storms in front. 

It indicates significant outflow and a rather turbulent atmosphere. 

There is so much outflow, it is allowing for the outflow to fall signficantly out ahead of the storm and then, in turn, allows for rising out aheard of the storm. 

[Sentinel]

8 minutes ago, Burr said:

PRE definitely going to occur

That is mesmerizing.

[1816]

4 hours ago, Burr said:

This is not my uncle:

 

This guy's going for a swim. Boats in harbors during storms end up upside down or pushed up in a pile on the shore.  

[1816]

Saw this on American. Never seen anything like this before. Just bonkers. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

6 hours ago, Jim said:

I saw the interview. He seemed rather unalarmed by the prospect of being in a small boat during a hurricane.

Small brain, small boat = simpleton

6 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Looks really intelligent 👀👀

^Yuuuup!

6 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This I found but am too tired to try and understand...  

  Hide contents

E.) Weakening Flag (Dvorak EIR Rule 9) The ADT Weakening Flag is modeled after the STD EIR Rule 9 (Dvorak, 1984), but also utilizes a modification to the original STD EIR Rule 9 that is applied at some operational TC forecasting centers. The “original” STD ERI Rule 9 rule is used in the determination of the CI# after a storm has reached its maximum intensity and is 43 weakening during the dissipation stage of the TC lifecycle (e.g. extra-tropical transition, moving over cold waters, interacting with severe atmospheric shear, etc). The EIR Rule 9 will hold the CI# at values 0.5 to 1.0 higher in value than the current Final T# (Raw T# after adjustments and time-averaging). Subjective application of this rule (e.g. how and when to apply it) varies between forecasters and is the focal point of much debate. The value of 1.0 is utilized in the ADT since it provides the most statistically accurate estimates of storm intensity when compared with actual reconnaissance observations. The “modified” Weakening Flag rule logic affects the calculation of the CI# during the formation/strengthening stage of the storm prior to maximum TC intensity (where the ”original” Rule 9 rule will be invoked) as follows: “Always hold the CI# to the highest Final T# over the last 6/12 hours, but never greater than 1.0, in all cases”. This rule will hold the ADT CI# equal to the highest Final T# obtained during the previous 12 hours in all ocean basins EXCEPT in the East Pacific where it will be held to the highest value over the past 6 hours. For example, if the Final T# value had previously obtained a value of 5.2 in an Atlantic storm, but now is decreasing, the CI# value will be held at 5.2 for up to 12 hours or until the Final T# falls below 4.2. This rule is dis-invoked if the TC re-strengthens to the held CI# and greater intensity values.

 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/guides/ADTV8.2.1_Guide.pdf

 

Nerd

5 hours ago, Rich Mac said:

You had me at cigars and bourbon.

A joint and some Scotch also works (OK maybe that's just me)

5 hours ago, longislander said:

11pm update - south

Oh GREAT - that UTS doofus will be even more impossible to live with if that continues

5 hours ago, StretchCT said:

11pm disco highlights: Kudos to the hurricane hunters, pressure up and wind down slightly, consistent wtih ADT, TAFB and SAB. Moving at 10kts and will increase speed. Forecast track similar to previous one. Should remain a major hurricane, baroclinic effects may keep it stronger despite shear.  Wind field is expected to grow substantially as it nears and enters FL. Surge rain and wind impacts will be felt well outside the cone. Evacuations should be completed tonight. Potential for being one of the most damaging storms on record in west central FL. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating
Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes,
flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable
observations.  Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane
had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt
and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft
observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so
the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt.  This
is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that
Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the
initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt.  The system is being
steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge near the Greater Antilles.  Milton should move
northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed,
with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in
24 hours or so.  Thereafter, the system should turn
east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern
Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast.  The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations.  This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions.  Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west
coast of Florida.  Although an expected increase in vertical wind
shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore.  Also,
the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as
Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy
and slow the rate of weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper side of the intensity model guidance.  After Milton moves
over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming
embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by 72 hours.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the
time the center moves over Florida.  In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.
Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall
will extend well outside the forecast cone.  This is a very serious
situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from
their local emergency management officials.  Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed tonight.  Milton has the potential
to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for
west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.  There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.4N  86.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.5N  83.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 28.5N  78.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  11/1200Z 29.0N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 29.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0000Z 30.4N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0000Z 31.5N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Those Hunter dudes are just made of "different" stuff, for sure

4 hours ago, Rickrd said:

I guess one good thing is the storm is and will continue to accelerate towards landfall and thereafter. Center looks to cross Florida, west to east in about 10 hrs. Thank God it isn’t a crawler. Still a lot of damage tho. 

I just hope that the forward speed doesn't = much stronger end to end. Would think a crawler would spin down more quickly - spare the C and E coasts? 

4 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Why i luv weather. This storm was G of M born and bred. As Poc mentioned. Really rare. As of early Last weekend had only about a 30% chance of development, and attaining tropical storm characteristics. Then gets to 75 by late Sunday. Rare. Then goes all stupid from 90 to 180 in no time. Unprecedented. Then weakens, and redevelops into a Cat 5 at 165. Really , really rare once they drop off cat 5. Heads pretty much east, then some northeast  from the onset in western Gulf. Really rare- that’s why so tough to get a ground zero strike in Tampa. Oh , and finally, how many Cat 5’s have retained Cat 5/ high Cat 4 status  from late Mon thru at least early Wednesday? 

Milton has earned his name being retired into the Hall of Names no matter what hapoens ffom here

 

 

 

 

 

 

Poc continued to watch this thing when it was little more than a smear on the models. While I was fishing this past weekend, he was all over the potential. I bow to him for that tenacity

4 hours ago, ak9971 said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen an MCD over water before for tornado discussion lol…. Some really solid signatures there. Southern Florida will escape the brunt of the wind it seems but quite the tornado threat going tomorrow. 

I noticed that NHC has added a prominent link to SPC Tornado Threat on their page since yesterday. 

4 hours ago, Burr said:

PRE definitely going to occur

Yes, I mentioned that last night - they have not been dry and many of their inland lakes are full. The club pro who has the place E of St Pete said they had been much much lower and now are to the brim. 

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

Saw this on American. Never seen anything like this before. Just bonkers. 

 

This critter just keeps on stunning even us WxNerds. Perhaps this is why the Hunters aborted the eye pass that one time last night? 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I've heard FL being called "Gods Waiting Room" - he's not wrong though. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Undertakerson2.0]

[Undertakerson2.0]

Never have I EVER - the convection, directly over the COC.!! Even in that outflow "blob" - it's super rare --- SUPER. And it's been going on for a full 18 hours (+/-)

[Undertakerson2.0]

Dude in the small boat = shark Chow. Hope he enjoyed his 15 minutes of star-DUMB

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

 

...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys...
   The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to
   continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula
   today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered
   thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern
   and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band
   of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central
   Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight
   thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending
   east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon
   RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area
   suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
   addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is
   forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping
   hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential
   for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band
   will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for
   a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to
   the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could
   occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear
   will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist
   through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to
   the eastern coast of Florida.