Major Hurricane Milton | Peak 180mph 897 mb | Advisories Discontinued

[Jim]

19 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

If this is real, he needs to be given a live GoPro with a feed. I don’t want to see a man die, but I want to watch the chaos of a boat in this storm. 

I saw the interview. He seemed rather unalarmed by the prospect of being in a small boat during a hurricane.

[StretchCT]

18z Hurricane models for the 0z (an hour and half ago) pressures. HAFS B 942mb/95kts; HAFS A 928mb 139kt; HMON 901mb 151kt, HWRF 911 mb  148kt. Actual per NHC: 902mb 143kts.  HMON pressure, HWRF winds.  Just an hour later it was HWRF pressure. 

 

Spoiler

 

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

10 minutes ago, Jim said:

I saw the interview. He seemed rather unalarmed by the prospect of being in a small boat during a hurricane.

Looks really intelligent 👀👀

[StretchCT]

11 minutes ago, Tater said:

What's the criteria for the flags? How fast do they flip?

This I found but am too tired to try and understand...  

Spoiler

E.) Weakening Flag (Dvorak EIR Rule 9) The ADT Weakening Flag is modeled after the STD EIR Rule 9 (Dvorak, 1984), but also utilizes a modification to the original STD EIR Rule 9 that is applied at some operational TC forecasting centers. The “original” STD ERI Rule 9 rule is used in the determination of the CI# after a storm has reached its maximum intensity and is 43 weakening during the dissipation stage of the TC lifecycle (e.g. extra-tropical transition, moving over cold waters, interacting with severe atmospheric shear, etc). The EIR Rule 9 will hold the CI# at values 0.5 to 1.0 higher in value than the current Final T# (Raw T# after adjustments and time-averaging). Subjective application of this rule (e.g. how and when to apply it) varies between forecasters and is the focal point of much debate. The value of 1.0 is utilized in the ADT since it provides the most statistically accurate estimates of storm intensity when compared with actual reconnaissance observations. The “modified” Weakening Flag rule logic affects the calculation of the CI# during the formation/strengthening stage of the storm prior to maximum TC intensity (where the ”original” Rule 9 rule will be invoked) as follows: “Always hold the CI# to the highest Final T# over the last 6/12 hours, but never greater than 1.0, in all cases”. This rule will hold the ADT CI# equal to the highest Final T# obtained during the previous 12 hours in all ocean basins EXCEPT in the East Pacific where it will be held to the highest value over the past 6 hours. For example, if the Final T# value had previously obtained a value of 5.2 in an Atlantic storm, but now is decreasing, the CI# value will be held at 5.2 for up to 12 hours or until the Final T# falls below 4.2. This rule is dis-invoked if the TC re-strengthens to the held CI# and greater intensity values.

 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/guides/ADTV8.2.1_Guide.pdf

 

[StretchCT]

One of those cases where the extrapolation is very close to the dropsonde data. 914 is Mission 16, 913 is Mission 17 

Mission 16 has a closed circular eye 6nm wide.  Fix at 1:11Z

Mission 17 has a closed circular eye 9nm wide. Fix at 1:16Z. 

[StretchCT]

Seems to be contracting and getting colder? Or my eyes are really tired.  Still looks pretty good 

[Sentinel]

15 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This I found but am too tired to try and understand...  

  Hide contents

E.) Weakening Flag (Dvorak EIR Rule 9) The ADT Weakening Flag is modeled after the STD EIR Rule 9 (Dvorak, 1984), but also utilizes a modification to the original STD EIR Rule 9 that is applied at some operational TC forecasting centers. The “original” STD ERI Rule 9 rule is used in the determination of the CI# after a storm has reached its maximum intensity and is 43 weakening during the dissipation stage of the TC lifecycle (e.g. extra-tropical transition, moving over cold waters, interacting with severe atmospheric shear, etc). The EIR Rule 9 will hold the CI# at values 0.5 to 1.0 higher in value than the current Final T# (Raw T# after adjustments and time-averaging). Subjective application of this rule (e.g. how and when to apply it) varies between forecasters and is the focal point of much debate. The value of 1.0 is utilized in the ADT since it provides the most statistically accurate estimates of storm intensity when compared with actual reconnaissance observations. The “modified” Weakening Flag rule logic affects the calculation of the CI# during the formation/strengthening stage of the storm prior to maximum TC intensity (where the ”original” Rule 9 rule will be invoked) as follows: “Always hold the CI# to the highest Final T# over the last 6/12 hours, but never greater than 1.0, in all cases”. This rule will hold the ADT CI# equal to the highest Final T# obtained during the previous 12 hours in all ocean basins EXCEPT in the East Pacific where it will be held to the highest value over the past 6 hours. For example, if the Final T# value had previously obtained a value of 5.2 in an Atlantic storm, but now is decreasing, the CI# value will be held at 5.2 for up to 12 hours or until the Final T# falls below 4.2. This rule is dis-invoked if the TC re-strengthens to the held CI# and greater intensity values.

 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/misc/adt/guides/ADTV8.2.1_Guide.pdf

 

Basically the weakening flag is somewhat subjective, however, it is meant to keep short term fluctuations in check. So, if the Current Intensity (CI#) is less than 1.0 units higher than the Final T#, the CI# is kept at the higher initial number. This is correleated with the passage of time with a 12 hour hold in the Atlantic and a 6 hour hold in the Pacific.

It is easier to explain with an example. Let us say the CI# is 7.1 at 1500 UTC and the Final T# drops to 6.3 at 1600 UTC. The ADT number will be held at 7.1 for the time being. However, if the Final T# were to fall to 5.8, then this number would be used because it is larger than the 1.0 unit fall (7.1 - 5.8 = 1.3). Likewise, if the Final T# remains at 6.8 for 12 hours in the Atlantic Basin, then the CI# will be dropped to 6.8 as well. 

Essentially, this is to ensure that minor fluctuations do not get taken into account, thus potentially overcomplicating the forecast. 

 

 

 

[Hassaywx1223]

If you have instagram heres the whole video earlier with the turbulence for the hurricane hunters https://www.instagram.com/reel/DA39IoCyirb/?igsh=NGFiajFxeTBqb2h4 

[TLChip]

[StretchCT]

24 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

18z Hurricane models for the 0z (an hour and half ago) pressures. HAFS B 942mb/95kts; HAFS A 928mb 139kt; HMON 901mb 151kt, HWRF 911 mb  148kt. Actual per NHC: 902mb 143kts.  HMON pressure, HWRF winds.  Just an hour later it was HWRF pressure. 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

I was going to suggest going with the HWRF, but what an up and down ending. Weakens to 127kts at 12z, then goes to 116, then 122, then 130, then 97, then 107 then drops to 85kts right before landfall then inland at 95kts.  Each of those is 3 hours apart.  

Spoiler

 

 

[Burr]

1 hour ago, Rich Mac said:

These same people will be screaming at FEMA for not plucking them out of their predicament by helicopter.

That was one of my arguments to him!  Do you really want to rely on FEMA for surviving the next few weeks when you could be smoking cigars and enjoying a bourbon?

[Burr]

I’ve told my uncle I’ll buy him a donut if Milt makes landfall below a Cat 3.

[StretchCT]

Last vort message mission 16: 916mb (so up from 906 when it started); eye closed, circular and 6nm wide; inbound sfmr 165mph 5 miles north of center; outbound sfmr 154mph 6 nm ESE of center; max flight level 163mph.  

I don't think it will make another pass so that's probably the update at 11pm. Although it doesn't look like its leaving and it did a tight reapproach for this last one.  Maybe one more?

Spoiler

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 2:16Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Name: Milton
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 16
Observation Number: 31

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 2:07:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.29N 86.58W
B. Center Fix Location: 316 statute miles (508 km) to the WSW (254°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,365m (7,759ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 295° at 8kts (From the WNW at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 143kts (164.6mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the N (353°) of center fix at 2:06:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 86° at 127kts (From the E at 146.1mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the N (358°) of center fix at 2:06:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 134kts (154.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the ESE (104°) of center fix at 2:09:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 193° at 132kts (From the SSW at 151.9mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix at 2:10:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 142kts (~ 163.4mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SW (226°) from the flight level center at 1:09:00Z

 

[Rich Mac]

5 minutes ago, Burr said:

That was one of my arguments to him!  Do you really want to rely on FEMA for surviving the next few weeks when you could be smoking cigars and enjoying a bourbon?

You had me at cigars and bourbon.

[Columbusbuckeye]

23 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Those storms definitely have a supercell look to them. I'd imagine there are some big waterspouts out over the GOM tonight.

[Burr]

Just now, Rich Mac said:

You had me at cigars and bourbon.

Right?!  Who makes that kind of decision?  Of course, he is probably thinking he’ll be having those at his house on Thursday!

[StretchCT]

Some random model landfalls.

0z NAM - Bradenton

0z NAM3k  - Tampa

0z wrf NSSL - Bradenton

0z FV3 - Sarasota

0z HRRR - Sarasota

0z Wrf ARW2 - Bradenton

0z Icon - Tampa

 

 

Edited October 9 by StretchCT

[longislander]

11pm update - south

[StretchCT]

6 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

Those storms definitely have a supercell look to them. I'd imagine there are some big waterspouts out over the GOM tonight.

Yeah - we had some posts on that earlier.  There were special marine warnings out for waterspouts

[StretchCT]

11pm disco highlights: Kudos to the hurricane hunters, pressure up and wind down slightly, consistent wtih ADT, TAFB and SAB. Moving at 10kts and will increase speed. Forecast track similar to previous one. Should remain a major hurricane, baroclinic effects may keep it stronger despite shear.  Wind field is expected to grow substantially as it nears and enters FL. Surge rain and wind impacts will be felt well outside the cone. Evacuations should be completed tonight. Potential for being one of the most damaging storms on record in west central FL. 

 

Spoiler

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating
Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes,
flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable
observations.  Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane
had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt
and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft
observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so
the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt.  This
is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB.

Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that
Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the
initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt.  The system is being
steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico
and a ridge near the Greater Antilles.  Milton should move
northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed,
with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in
24 hours or so.  Thereafter, the system should turn
east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern
Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast.  The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north
of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted
cyclone center locations.  This is close to a blend of the latest
GFS and ECMWF model solutions.  Again, it is critical to remember
that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an
an exact landfall location.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it
moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west
coast of Florida.  Although an expected increase in vertical wind
shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an
extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore.  Also,
the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as
Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy
and slow the rate of weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper side of the intensity model guidance.  After Milton moves
over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming
embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the
system becoming extratropical by 72 hours.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the
time the center moves over Florida.  In addition, a large region of
tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the
northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting
with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition.
Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall
will extend well outside the forecast cone.  This is a very serious
situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from
their local emergency management officials.  Evacuations and other
preparations should be completed tonight.  Milton has the potential
to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for
west-central Florida.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.  There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.4N  86.5W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.5N  83.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 27.9N  81.4W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 28.5N  78.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  11/1200Z 29.0N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 29.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0000Z 30.4N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  14/0000Z 31.5N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[StretchCT]

It looks like the eye is wider than 6nm to me.  

[Poco]

17 minutes ago, Columbusbuckeye said:

Those storms definitely have a supercell look to them. I'd imagine there are some big waterspouts out over the GOM tonight.

Was wondering the same about waterspouts 

[Sentinel]

29 minutes ago, Burr said:

That was one of my arguments to him!  Do you really want to rely on FEMA for surviving the next few weeks when you could be smoking cigars and enjoying a bourbon?

Um. On my way. 

[Poco]

Disregard that mimic post the 24hr was update to near current and there’s a pauseable video someone made pages back.  Prolly won’t catch next update till tm.  Take care stay safe 

Edited October 9 by Poco

[Burr]

3 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

Um. On my way. 

My sister and brother-in-law have a beachfront rental in St Joe’s, FL and invited him up to spend the week, but he declined.  Crazy, yeah?

I’d be happy to host you (and others) over to my place, if the occasion arises!

Edited October 9 by Burr