Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 (edited) Something is disrupting it again. Vort message still a 10nm wide eye circular and closed. Edited October 9 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Inland flooding is very well in play here. Think of Gordon for example - came in at Ft Myers and the inland flooding was pretty severe. They have had a PRE as well. I'm not sure inland areas will fare all too well with Milton basically bisecting the peninsula Totally agree bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Something is disrupting it again Could it be divergence isn't stacked anymore? I'm throwing a dart. convergence is stacked still Edited October 9 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Something is disrupting it again. Vort message still a 10nm wide eye circular and closed. Looks good on sat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Please also note how wide the expected storm surge is. Tampa may not get the eye but still in the highest storm surge forecast, and would take a pretty big shift to miss it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Could it be divergence isn't stacked anymore? I'm throwing a dart. That's a great thought. But the time stamp is 21UTC and it was fired up then. But it makes me wonder about that divergence. Does it tug on the storm, its actually in lien with its path anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 9 Admin Share Posted October 9 The radar off the West Coast of Florida has some weird features. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 Just now, MaineJay said: The radar of the West Coast of Florida has some weird features. What was that show that was on after Lost back in the 2000s that had the aliens invade during a hurricane? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) 9 minutes ago, MaineJay said: The radar off the West Coast of Florida has some weird features. Velocity is suspect… I know quick tors are common in canes, they seem longer. Waterspout* over water. Edited October 9 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, 1816 said: Then there's old people. … probably don't give a shit what happens either way. Crusty stubborn old bastards. Burr's uncle probably. … Yup! That’s him! Remember, kids, don’t believe what anyone tells you because they don’t know as much as you do. So, the latest from my uncle in St Pete, not near the beach and at 39’ of elevation: “This is the latest. Yes, I'm safe, I did not evacuate, and thanks for thinking of me. I decided to stay here. The news you see has lots of hype, so don't listen to the TV. First, I'm NOT in a flood zone and thus no mandatory evacuation and I wont be subjected to the storm water surge. I am worried about the wind. But, I've got a new hurricane proof roof. Yes, it can still change, but it's heading to Sarasota now. And there's lots of wind shear that's going to break it up into a Cat 1 or Cat 2. That means wind in Tampa is 100 mph, just like the wind I encountered when Helene went through/by here 2 weeks ago. Thanks for reaching out.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, TLChip said: Velocity is suspect… Weird movement - the lower returns moving faster and to the NNW. Main cells moving slower and to the NE. Ton of lightning too. /O.CON.KKEY.MA.W.0435.000000T0000Z-241009T0045Z/ 815 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 ...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT... For the following areas... Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel... Gulf Waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 nm out and beyond 5 fathoms... At 815 PM EDT, a possible strong waterspout was located over New Ground Rocks Light, moving north at 5 knots. HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts 34 knots or greater. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Waterspouts can quickly form and capsize boats, cause considerable damage to vessels and create suddenly higher waves. Expect wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, suddenly higher waves, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Locations in the warning include... New Ground Rocks Light. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Burr said: Yup! That’s him! Remember, kids, don’t believe what anyone tells you because they don’t know as much as you do. So, the latest from my uncle in St Pete, not near the beach and at 39’ of elevation: “This is the latest. Yes, I'm safe, I did not evacuate, and thanks for thinking of me. I decided to stay here. The news you see has lots of hype, so don't listen to the TV. First, I'm NOT in a flood zone and thus no mandatory evacuation and I wont be subjected to the storm water surge. I am worried about the wind. But, I've got a new hurricane proof roof. Yes, it can still change, but it's heading to Sarasota now. And there's lots of wind shear that's going to break it up into a Cat 1 or Cat 2. That means wind in Tampa is 100 mph, just like the wind I encountered when Helene went through/by here 2 weeks ago. Thanks for reaching out.” Man’s got more conviction then some NWS desks 😁 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Stabilized at around 906, perhaps. No longer explosive strengthening, but not really weakening either. Max winds are up a tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 Vort message from 16 randomly appeared: 907 mb, closed circular 8nm wide, 153mph inbound (SE) 165mph outbound (NW), Flight level wind 179.5 Pressure was extrapolated. Spoiler A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 23:51:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.02N 86.90W B. Center Fix Location: 341 statute miles (549 km) to the WSW (252°) from Key West, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,319m (7,608ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 907mb (26.79 inHg) - Extrapolated E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 133kts (153.1mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the SE (142°) of center fix at 23:49:30Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 142kts (From the SW at 163.4mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SE/SSE (146°) of center fix at 23:49:00Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 143kts (164.6mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the NNW (343°) of center fix at 23:52:00Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 61° at 122kts (From the ENE at 140.4mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the NNW (331°) of center fix at 23:53:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,031m (9,944ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 156kts (~ 179.5mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center at 22:26:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: And then TwC just poops the bed. It was doing too well. “ If that isn’t enough to make you leave, over 20 Waffle Houses in the Tampa Bay area are closing”. Well that settles it. I was gonna ride it out, but damn not now. WTF 🤦🏼♂️ The waffleometer has spoken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: The waffleometer has spoken. Mike Sidell just showed the map. He said if nothing else tells you this storm is gonna be bad, let this sink in, all the Waffle Houses from Tampa to Cape Coral are closed. This never happens. They're like, "Crap, we're are we gonna eat during this storm" Edited October 9 by Hail_On_Me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 59 minutes ago, Sentinel said: I know this is partly tongue and cheek - but its' actually true. Emergency Management actually has an unoffical Waffle House Barometer. I do stand corrected. Look, Seidel has taken way too many wave punches over the years from TWC giving him the bad beat shifts in the worst parts of the storms, but he/ they keep banging the how rare it is for them to close. So it must be a sign. 21 closing in Tampa, 7 in Fort Myers and a bunch more under a “green light” status, which i really don’t know what that means, and I really don’t give a shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted October 9 Moderators Share Posted October 9 26 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: The waffleometer has spoken. I thought that was used to measure politicians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 (edited) Mission 17 vortex: pressure 913mb, closed circular eye 9nm wide. Flight wind in 144mph, flight wind out 159 mph. Eye temp in 26c, out 17c. Top flight wind 180mph. Spoiler Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:50Z Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 17 Observation Number: 12 A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 0:20:17Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.08N 86.82W B. Center Fix Location: 335 statute miles (539 km) to the WSW (252°) from Key West, FL, USA. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 913mb (26.96 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 3kts (From the E at 3mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not Available I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NA J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 345° at 125kts (From the NNW at 143.8mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the W (263°) of center fix at 0:18:59Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: Not Available M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound (Undecoded): NA N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 187° at 138kts (From the S at 158.8mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (89°) of center fix at 0:22:06Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,448m (8,031ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,441m (8,009ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 156kts (~ 179.5mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SSE (164°) from the flight level center at 23:10:00Z I'm on the Cesium page so I have both missions on the same page. I'm finding one mission is lower pressure than the other. Edited October 9 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Popular Post StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Popular Post Share Posted October 9 Cool thing about the tropical threads are that no one is here complaining they aren't getting the storm. 4 1 2 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregRups Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 A lot of people in fort myers, Bonita and southwest Florida are still recovering from Ian two years ago. Some places I drive by are still boarded up. Going to be a shame when Milton comes through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Author Moderators Share Posted October 9 It's on Cuba radar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tampa now on the northern edge of cone, wow. Not over yet, but nice call again by UT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Tampa now on the northern edge of cone, wow. Not over yet, but nice call again by UT. I wouldn’t call it the ‘edge’ but yes. There’s also NWS discussion that the location of initialization of the models was inaccurate due to wobbling of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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