tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) This is a little older now but t 20241008130117-20241008181617_g16_conus_geo-glm_hurricane-Milton-strengthens-again_labels.mp4 20241008183055-20241008211455_g16_meso_band2_milton-clear-cat-5-eye-ZOOM_labels.mp4 he lightning. . . Edited October 8 by tool483 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not entirely sure how that works, but it seems like the relatively low probabilities (or lower than what one would think) are probably largely due to uncertainties on landfall location. Given the expected intensity at landfall, the odds of somebody on the Florida coast observing hurricane force winds are very high. I'm not a fan of that graphic because of the potential for it to mislead the public. If somebody is relying on that graphic alone (which they shouldn't be), they may find themselves in a situation where suddenly the probabilities rapidly rise to say 80-90% once we get to 12-24 hours before landfall, and by then it's pretty late to evacuate. It’s chances of winds of a certain speed in that area at a certain time. As the models close in on the exact track, the higher the confidence. Hurricane force sustained winds only extend a certain distance from the center so what this is saying is that there is still divergence on the track. Im shocked it’s not higher in the St Pete area but give it another 12 hours and I imagine those numbers are going to skyrocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Just now, tool483 said: This is a little older now but t 20241008130117-20241008181617_g16_conus_geo-glm_hurricane-Milton-strengthens-again_labels.mp4 10.46 MB · 0 downloads he lightning. . . Lighting - This thing is just exploding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Sentinel said: Lighting - This thing is just exploding. insane stuff, the close up eye one is just, no words 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: It’s chances of winds of a certain speed in that area at a certain time. As the models close in on the exact track, the higher the confidence. Hurricane force sustained winds only extend a certain distance from the center so what this is saying is that there is still divergence on the track. Im shocked it’s not higher in the St Pete area but give it another 12 hours and I imagine those numbers are going to skyrocket I read it as the chances of hurricane winds within the period you choose. You can choose up to 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 A beast, from yesterday's RI Pretty cool you can download the videos from Cira 202410071300-202410072230_g16_meso_band2glm_full-day-hurricane-milton-eye-wall-lightning_labels.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: I read it as the chances of hurricane winds within the period you choose. You can choose up to 120 hours. Yes. I think we’re saying the same thing or maybe I wrote my message wrong. They are using models to generate an expected sustained hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 And then TwC just poops the bed. It was doing too well. “ If that isn’t enough to make you leave, over 20 Waffle Houses in the Tampa Bay area are closing”. Well that settles it. I was gonna ride it out, but damn not now. WTF 🤦🏼♂️ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I read it as the chances of hurricane winds within the period you choose. You can choose up to 120 hours. The graphic is derived from this. Each location has 34, 50 and 64 kt wind for each time frame with the probability the first number and the cumulative probability in parentheses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: And then TwC just poops the bed. It was doing too well. “ If that isn’t enough to make you leave, over 20 Waffle Houses in the Tampa Bay area are closing”. Well that settles it. I was gonna ride it out, but damn not now. WTF 🤦🏼♂️ Bruh if waffle house closes then it's over. They are literally the barometer the entire civilized world (US) uses to gauge storm strength. If they close, you better run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Just now, 1816 said: Bruh if waffle house closes then it's over. They are literally the barometer the entire civilized world (US) uses to gauge storm strength. If they close, you better run I know this is partly tongue and cheek - but its' actually true. Emergency Management actually has an unoffical Waffle House Barometer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, 1816 said: Bruh if waffle house closes then it's over. They are literally the barometer the entire civilized world (US) uses to gauge storm strength. If they close, you better run There will still be drunken fights in the parking lots at 3am 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Sentinel said: I know this is partly tongue and cheek - but its' actually true. Emergency Management actually has an unoffical Waffle House Barometer. Not tongue in cheek. I wanted to say fema checks it but was too lazy to verify and won't irresponsibly spout shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 What I’m finding wild is the movement of the people I know in the path. Some of the smartest people I know are planning to hunker down (with backup plans) while the folks who I find to be of lesser intelligence are actually getting out of dodge. That’s probably a good sign because I can see the smarter ones waking up in the morning and going…nope.. if the hurricane is coming for then. If the others planned to stay, they were not changing their mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hshiau Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Psu1313 said: What I’m finding wild is the movement of the people I know in the path. Some of the smartest people I know are planning to hunker down (with backup plans) while the folks who I find to be of lesser intelligence are actually getting out of dodge. That’s probably a good sign because I can see the smarter ones waking up in the morning and going…nope.. if the hurricane is coming for then. If the others planned to stay, they were not changing their mind. It’ll probably be too late to get out. No doubt there will be traffic jams all along the northbound routes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 AF303 was headed to make another pass at the eye and turned around, for why? I'm not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, Psu1313 said: What I’m finding wild is the movement of the people I know in the path. Some of the smartest people I know are planning to hunker down (with backup plans) while the folks who I find to be of lesser intelligence are actually getting out of dodge. That’s probably a good sign because I can see the smarter ones waking up in the morning and going…nope.. if the hurricane is coming for then. If the others planned to stay, they were not changing their mind. Honestly unless you are close to the water you're probably gonna be ok. The storm surge is the major problem here so adjacent of the waterfront is a problem. Anyone well inland will probably survive just fine barring an unlucky experience with a tree. Now surviving and being comfortable are two different things. I'd not want to deal with the aftermath of this sucker. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Just now, Neoncyclone said: AF303 was headed to make another pass at the eye and turned around, for why? I'm not sure. There are a plethora of mesovorticies observed in the eyewall currently. It is very possible they saw something on radar they thought was too dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: AF303 was headed to make another pass at the eye and turned around, for why? I'm not sure. Just now, Sentinel said: There are a plethora of mesovorticies observed in the eyewall currently. It is very possible they saw something on radar they thought was too dangerous. Well if the hurricane hunters noped out then you know it's bad. These guys never back down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, 1816 said: Honestly unless you are close to the water you're probably gonna be ok. The storm surge is the major problem here so adjacent of the waterfront is a problem. Anyone well inland will probably survive just fine barring an unlucky experience with a tree. Now surviving and being comfortable are two different things. I'd not want to deal with the aftermath of this sucker. I wouldn’t want to be in the eyewall of this thing. Outside of that, I agree. edit: oh autocorrect!! Eyeball you say Edited October 8 by Psu1313 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 9 minutes ago, 1816 said: Honestly unless you are close to the water you're probably gonna be ok. The storm surge is the major problem here so adjacent of the waterfront is a problem. Anyone well inland will probably survive just fine barring an unlucky experience with a tree. Now surviving and being comfortable are two different things. I'd not want to deal with the aftermath of this sucker. This would be my assumption, my relatives are inland. Their number 1 tip was, fill up the bath tub so you can still flush. They're a different breed no doubt. Who am I to judge, they think I'm nuts for wanting blizzards. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 13 minutes ago, 1816 said: Honestly unless you are close to the water you're probably gonna be ok. The storm surge is the major problem here so adjacent of the waterfront is a problem. Anyone well inland will probably survive just fine barring an unlucky experience with a tree. Now surviving and being comfortable are two different things. I'd not want to deal with the aftermath of this sucker. Inland flooding is very well in play here. Think of Gordon for example - came in at Ft Myers and the inland flooding was pretty severe. They have had a PRE as well. I'm not sure inland areas will fare all too well with Milton basically bisecting the peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 FEMA has a page that outlines a few examples https://www.fema.gov/pdf/rebuild/mat/fema488/488_e.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Inland flooding is very well in play here. Think of Gordon for example - came in at Ft Myers and the inland flooding was pretty severe. They have had a PRE as well. I'm not sure inland areas will fare all too well with Milton basically bisecting the peninsula Absolutely. But inland flooding in central Florida isn't like the flooding we've seen in the se lately. It's stagnant water not moving water. No hillside to plunge into the void. A real problem but not as much of a life threatening thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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