Major Hurricane Milton | Peak 180mph 897 mb | Advisories Discontinued

[Sentinel]

When a storm becomes a bohemeth they tend to stray further N than E in the gulf. This may have impacts downstream regarding track. 

 

EDIT : Shear at LF could rapidly expand/enlarge this also (per NHC). Something to watch for. 

[Burr]

[Burr]

[StormfanaticInd]

Florida is in a bad spot this season. 

[Burr]

[Hoosier]

Saw that Florida is mobilizing state assets to help with debris removal from Helene.  Typically that does not happen, but it's definitely the right move in this case.  Question is how much can get cleaned up before Milton arrives.

[Hoosier]

Interesting that the 12z GFS has landfall north of Tampa.  The track is farther south early on, but then there's more of a leftward path later.

[Burr]

Air Force hunter is inside

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

ADT data suggests deepening is steady - however robust intensification is held at bay ATM - reflected in the slight lowering of T scores. Could that be the weaker but present midlevel dry air? Perhaps, yet that won't hold this back when it comes down to brass tacks. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Recon output seems to indicate that it's a Cane even now. 

Edited October 6 by Undertakerson2.0

[Sentinel]

People who were hit by Helene need to prepare as if they are going to suffer another hit. 

While odds are lower at this time for that, the risk is too high given the current state of infrastructure for those recently affected by Helene. 

Everyone from Western and Northern Florida up through the areas affected by Helene need to begin making plans today for what and how they are going to react should their area become one that will be significantly affected. This includes those in areas where the moisture fetch from Milton may affect them.

The rain event which affected the Western Carolinas before Helene even came close set the stage for the disaster in the Western Carolinas and Milton may not be all that different. The NHC has already stated the storm may significantly grow in size as it approaches landfall. Others have shown how this has a potential to track NW of current landfall projections. 

This is a potentially catastrophic situation. Again. It must be treated as such unless and/or until it can be definitively ruled out. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Stretch will likely give a full run down of 12 - just noting that HMON went a bit deeper into the low 940's compared to its previous run. IOW - no sign of it being less intense than previous thinking. 

[Burr]

Air Force hunter estimated pressure ~987mb

 

 

[Burr]

22 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Recon output seems to indicate that it's a Cane even now. 

A couple readings show hurricane force could be justified on the 2pm update

[Burr]

There it is

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W 
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH... 130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB... 29.18 INCHES

Edited October 6 by Burr

[NWOhioChaser]

The last few frames of the infrared are just amazing to watch. Core just literally exploded. I fear another RI situation like Helene the next 24-36 hours

[Burr]

5 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

The last few frames of the infrared are just amazing to watch. Core just literally exploded. I fear another RI situation like Helene the next 24-36 hours

All the signs of strengthening

Edited October 6 by Burr

[StretchCT]

37 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Stretch will likely give a full run down of 12

Sure... hurricane models. 

HAFS A peaks at 148kts hour 72 908mb, about 192nm out from Tampa. Drops to 80kts mb as it landfalls just north of Clearwater.

HAFS B peaks at 156kts hour 63 at 908mb. Tampa not in picture. Drops to 901 mb with 150kts hr 72 about 194nm from Tampa. Drops to 111kts right before coming into Tampa at 80kts or so. 

HWRF looks like its heading to Crystal river at 110kts.  It double peaks at 124kts, the latter peak being hr 81 112nm wsw from Tampa. 

HMON hits 128.5kts hr 42. Then it goes up and down between 116 and 126 until hr 84 when it starts its approach to just north of Tampa and lands at 75-80kts. 

 

[StretchCT]

AI-RI - showing two periods of significance. One is under way now. 

[Burr]

[Hoosier]

One of the big questions with this is what the intensity will be doing on approach to the Florida coast.  It seems unlikely that it will actually be strengthening as it approaches landfall, so the big question is how much will it be weakening?  

[StretchCT]

Dropped 3mb in one pass.  17:22 to 18:43

Edited October 6 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

The hurricane models are showing rapid weakening hours before landfall. Operationals (Euro/GFS) are showing it holds. 

[StretchCT]

Look at the past 4 intensity runs from Tidbits.  Most are now up to 4 and we have 3 5's

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

The hurricane models are showing rapid weakening hours before landfall. Operationals (Euro/GFS) are showing it holds. 

This is little more than speculation on my part... but wonder if the hurricane models are too strong at peak and the global models are too weak at peak.  End result would be weakening on approach, but not as much as the hurricane models suggest but more weakening than the global models indicate.