Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Someone I know that I played baseball with here in Ohio for years moved to the Tampa area for his job. He said he’s in zone E and on the 3rd floor of his apartment complex about 25 feet up. He’s staying. I’ve studied weather chased it and enjoyed it my whole life I don’t think unless I was with reed or Ryan hall’s team that I would even tempt this this is just way to life changing. I told him to leave. He won’t. I really want to know what processes in people’s minds that don’t have knowledge of weather to stay. The boards would be up then important papers and my dog would be with me and I’d be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 hours ago, Burr said: Too bad there’s no hunter flight inside yet. Look at that bad mfer. I want the stadium shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Someone I know that I played baseball with here in Ohio for years moved to the Tampa area for his job. He said he’s in zone E and on the 3rd floor of his apartment complex about 25 feet up. He’s staying. I’ve studied weather chased it and enjoyed it my whole life I don’t think unless I was with reed or Ryan hall’s team that I would even tempt this this is just way to life changing. I told him to leave. He won’t. I really want to know what processes in people’s minds that don’t have knowledge of weather to stay. The boards would be up then important papers and my dog would be with me and I’d be gone. I think it's different strokes for different folks. Your buddy sounds youngish so I believe there's a group who secretly want to experience it for the adventure. Probably also the most likely to regret it. Then there's old people. Seen a million canes come and go. They're not up to the whole task of evacuating. And probably don't give a shit what happens either way. Crusty stubborn old bastards. Burr's uncle probably. Then there's certain floridians. A lot of them are just nuts. Florida man is a thing for a reason. They don't belive a damn word out of the lying weatherman's mouth anyway. They welcome the storm with double birds and want to actively fight it. The sane floridians just leave like they're supposed to lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 25 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: m Don't think I've ever seen a Cyclone impersonate Raiden from mortal kombat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, 1816 said: I think it's different strokes for different folks. Your buddy sounds youngish so I believe there's a group who secretly want to experience it for the adventure. Probably also the most likely to regret it. Then there's old people. Seen a million canes come and go. They're not up to the whole task of evacuating. And probably don't give a shit what happens either way. Crusty stubborn old bastards. Burr's uncle probably. Then there's certain floridians. A lot of them are just nuts. Florida man is a thing for a reason. They don't belive a damn word out of the lying weatherman's mouth anyway. They welcome the storm with double birds and want to actively fight it. The sane floridians just leave like they're supposed to lol. He’s young and has only experienced Helene which he left for her though so this time he sad nope it was fine 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 ok, well this is insane stuff I tell you..wow!?? The vorticity's in that eye and the gravity waves, holy sheesh 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 50 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Graphic still not bullish on hurricane force winds hitting Florida. 50/50 on the coast, under 50% chance inland. I'm not entirely sure how that works, but it seems like the relatively low probabilities (or lower than what one would think) are probably largely due to uncertainties on landfall location. Given the expected intensity at landfall, the odds of somebody on the Florida coast observing hurricane force winds are very high. I'm not a fan of that graphic because of the potential for it to mislead the public. If somebody is relying on that graphic alone (which they shouldn't be), they may find themselves in a situation where suddenly the probabilities rapidly rise to say 80-90% once we get to 12-24 hours before landfall, and by then it's pretty late to evacuate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, Hoosier said: I'm not entirely sure how that works, but it seems like the relatively low probabilities (or lower than what one would think) are probably largely due to uncertainties on landfall location. Given the expected intensity at landfall, the odds of somebody on the Florida coast observing hurricane force winds are very high. I'm not a fan of that graphic because of the potential for it to mislead the public. If somebody is relying on that graphic alone (which they shouldn't be), they may find themselves in a situation where suddenly the probabilities rapidly rise to say 80-90% once we get to 12-24 hours before landfall, and by then it's pretty late to evacuate. Concur - the AFDs across the peninsula ALL show hurr gusts at the very least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Gonna be crazy if we go sub 900 mb again (looks likely). Rare for a storm to do it at all, let alone twice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not entirely sure how that works, but it seems like the relatively low probabilities (or lower than what one would think) are probably largely due to uncertainties on landfall location. Given the expected intensity at landfall, the odds of somebody on the Florida coast observing hurricane force winds are very high. I'm not a fan of that graphic because of the potential for it to mislead the public. If somebody is relying on that graphic alone (which they shouldn't be), they may find themselves in a situation where suddenly the probabilities rapidly rise to say 80-90% once we get to 12-24 hours before landfall, and by then it's pretty late to evacuate. 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Concur - the AFDs across the peninsula ALL show hurr gusts at the very least Yeah this graphic is reminiscent of spc tornado probabilities. Someone sees moderate 30 percent etc they're like "eh 7 out of 10 no tornado I'll play those odds" not realizing it's a dire watch the f**k out situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 May have bottomed out again, wait for next pass. 908, 904 then 906 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Sorry for OT but look what HH GFS just put up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Sorry for OT but look what HH GFS just put up It's gonna be like groundhog day, but with hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Getting that concentric look - hard to tell though with this radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Sorry for OT but look what HH GFS just put up Happy hour for those new here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 2 hours ago, Rickrd said: Really crazy if you ride this out down there. Told my wife's cousin to get out. She's 2 miles from the beach north of Tampa. She's asking us to pray that it goes out to sea. FACE SLAP! You can tell her that this is coming from someone who has a career as an Emergency/Risk Manager. Her life is in danger if she stays. Period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I still say the shear won't touch it. It didn't slow Helene - in fact it helped it then and it's helping Milton to some extent now. Not when you have uber warm SST comb with divergence and convergence. It's wishful thinking. Yup. Especially with a storm with such a well defined core. This may come onto land as a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Last pass through (mission 16): 906 mb, 7nm wide eye closed and circular (dang its getting tiny again), sfmr winds 172mph in (NNE) and 169mph out (SSW), flight level winds maxed at 183. Temp inside the eye back up to 26C. Outside the eye 11C. I'm shocked it's not lower pressure and higher winds honestly. Very close to last night. Spoiler Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 22:50Z Agency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303 Storm Name: Milton Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2024 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 16 Observation Number: 13 A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 22:24:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.87N 87.18W B. Center Fix Location: 120 statute miles (193 km) to the N (350°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,292m (7,520ft) at 700mb D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 906mb (26.76 inHg) E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 170° at 11kts (From the S at 13mph) F. Eye Character: Closed G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 149kts (171.5mph) I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the NNE (22°) of center fix at 22:23:00Z J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 131kts (From the ESE at 150.8mph) K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NNE (28°) of center fix at 22:22:30Z L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 147kts (169.2mph) M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the SSW (202°) of center fix at 22:26:30Z N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 156kts (From the WNW at 179.5mph) O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) of center fix at 22:26:00Z P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 26°C (79°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,989m (9,806ft) R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature S. Fix Level: 700mb T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 159kts (~ 183.0mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the E (92°) from the flight level center at 21:07:00Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I did not know this was a thing, wild stuff https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/event/hurricane-milton/ 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 48 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Someone I know that I played baseball with here in Ohio for years moved to the Tampa area for his job. He said he’s in zone E and on the 3rd floor of his apartment complex about 25 feet up. He’s staying. I’ve studied weather chased it and enjoyed it my whole life I don’t think unless I was with reed or Ryan hall’s team that I would even tempt this this is just way to life changing. I told him to leave. He won’t. I really want to know what processes in people’s minds that don’t have knowledge of weather to stay. The boards would be up then important papers and my dog would be with me and I’d be gone. Tell him to write his name and Social Security number on his arm in sharpie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Getting that concentric look - hard to tell though with this radar yea mimic shows something happening at end for sure this really is cycling around the same time of day it did yesterday too, from about 6pm till midnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Just now, Poco said: yea mimic shows something happening at end for sure this really is cycling around the same time of day it did yesterday too, from about 6pm till midnight I really hate that you can't pause this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I really hate that you can't pause this mimic 10-8.mp4 Fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 41 minutes ago, 1816 said: Don't think I've ever seen a Cyclone impersonate Raiden from mortal kombat 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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