longislander Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I think its going to go south of Tampa, it jogged a little south as it glanced the Yucatan and isn't going to retrace all of that as it moves NE - which will spare Tampa Bay the onshore flow and a lot of the surge. But its all over for a place like Port Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Hope the shear weakens it I still say the shear won't touch it. It didn't slow Helene - in fact it helped it then and it's helping Milton to some extent now. Not when you have uber warm SST comb with divergence and convergence. It's wishful thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Poco said: And here’s updated mimic loop When does mimic typically update? I don’t want to admit how many times I checked today. Edited October 8 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longislander Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 But isn't the shear also the thing pulling it NE? If the shear doesn't touch it at all, then the more southern solutions are likely I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Will it set the Gulf record before the ERC happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Radar - loop it below. https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observando-el-tiempo/radares-meteorologicos-separador/visor-radares-v3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 2 minutes ago, longislander said: But isn't the shear also the thing pulling it NE? If the shear doesn't touch it at all, then the more southern solutions are likely I would think. The upper level jet is grabbing it and pushing it northeast. The jet brings in the dry air from the west and shear but if you watch the latest update video on tropical tidbits some of the models are moving that jet north which is keeping the core intact longer. It’s grabbing straws how touchy it is but that’s weather Edited October 8 by Hassaywx1223 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, longislander said: But isn't the shear also the thing pulling it NE? If the shear doesn't touch it at all, then the more southern solutions are likely I would think. I'm not an expert. I'm going by what we just witnessed as much as anything. When Con and Div are strong and SST hot, it seems to matter much less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 different IR & Lightning shots. No good local sections here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Graphic still not bullish on hurricane force winds hitting Florida. 50/50 on the coast, under 50% chance inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, TLChip said: When does mimic typically update? I don’t want to admit how many times I checked today. There's not many satellites left that scan 85gHz, but that's what they use to update them, everything in between is interpolated, hence the occasionally "jumpiness". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 14 minutes ago, TLChip said: When does mimic typically update? I don’t want to admit how many times I checked today. Want to say it updates more when there’s a major hurricane cause I thought it was only every 6z or 12z Edited October 8 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longislander Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Yes, that south shift I think is enough spare Tampa Bay. Still going to be a rough ride, but no catastrophic onshore flow. Points south of that though - forget it. I wonder if the news/forecasters are going to change their programming to match that new guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Graphic still not bullish on hurricane force winds hitting Florida. 50/50 on the coast, under 50% chance inland. Let's hope they're right about that. Doesn't seem like what the models have been showing however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Gravity waves 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Oh yeah - this to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, TLChip said: Gravity waves The stadium effect and the way the setting sun hits the eye at the end of the loop is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 AFDMLB (well inland) Yeah, the wind discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) To that point. Tavares in C Florida in Lake County Edited October 8 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Band 2 looks pretty cool 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) m Edited October 8 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, Poco said: Band 2 looks pretty cool Zoomed in on RadarScope Pro. Absolutely beautiful and very scary all at once 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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