TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 9 minutes ago, clm said: What would be best for Tampa (aside from it petering out)? Current path aside, if they were to get hit, would it be best for them to be north or south of the eyewall entirely? South, wind direction helps. But south could mean a stronger overall cane. Also puts them in the northern side of an eye wall which can be a bad spot. Edited October 8 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 2 minutes ago, LUCC said: More north from NE/E/SE eyewall the better for any location of a hurricane. Just like Sandy, south of landfall they were spared much of the flooding and wind damage, places at or north of landfall got destroyed. But that was a hurricane approaching from the East, so in this case storm surge and on-shore winds will be significantly greater to the south of the eyewall rather than the north. Edited October 8 by AceGikmo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, clm said: What would be best for Tampa (aside from it petering out)? Current path aside, if they were to get hit, would it be best for them to be north or south of the eyewall entirely? Surge will be less if it goes to the south. Rain will be on the north side. Wind probably everywhere - it would have to be 60 miles away I would guess at this point to avoid 90mph winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, AceGikmo said: But that was a hurricane approaching from the East, so in this case storm surge will be significantly greater to the south of the eyewall rather than the north. I updated my post just as you were responding. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, TLChip said: South, wind direction helps. But south could mean a stronger overall cane. Yeah that too. If it's south it's probably a little stronger and smacking other areas worse than it would have smacked Tampa area. If you could get it south of Naples, then only the Keys are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 5pm update should have 165 Edited October 8 by mikeysed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, StretchCT said: Yeah that too. If it's south it's probably a little stronger and smacking other areas worse than it would have smacked Tampa area. If you could get it south of Naples, then only the Keys are in trouble. Yeah I just edited that too because if it’s slightly south it could put them in the northern eye wall which is also a rough spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, mikeysed said: 5pm update should have 165 Tidbits has the storm at 920 and 140kts which is 162 mph. Not sure why NHC updated the server but not the web page. Maybe just waiting for recon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Be interesting to see what recon finds when they get back out there, I bet she's sub 920's already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Raw T up to 7.6 now, about 160kts and 180mph. Adj T also at 7.6 and just a bit less than last nights peak of 7.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Raw T up to 7.6 now, about 160kts and 180mph. Adj T also at 7.6 and just a bit less than last nights peak of 7.8 Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Looks like some ENE movement the last few frames of satellite and the beginnings of Milton picking up some speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Too bad there’s no hunter flight inside yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hail_On_Me Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Burr said: Too bad there’s no hunter flight inside yet. Milton is gonna re strengthen to what is was yesterday once it hits that hot tub water, only this time much larger in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) feel like it’s still trying to expand since noon today Edited October 8 by Poco 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 It looks like it’s drinking from the storm northeast again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Also I did a comparison and averaged out the progged 3d movement between GFS and HAFS and determined Milton is about 3.5 degrees off from 72hr forecast. Meaning it’s moving slower to the tune of about 241.5 miles over the last 3 days compared to its prognostication, or about 80miles slower per day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 59 minutes ago, TLChip said: It looks like it’s drinking from the storm northeast again. Probably Favorable interaction off of cuba this time. Believe the highest mountains are centrally located on the island so could see an injection of even cooler drier air into the northeast quadrant/inflow later tonight. (Which is like gas into a fire) Edited October 8 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Recon mission 16 looks like it’s going to approach the eye from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cirrus Condition Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 19 minutes ago, TLChip said: It looks like it’s drinking from the storm northeast again. I'm still wondering if Milton is going to suck that storm up for the merge...but instead, it appears to be leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 23 minutes ago, Poco said: Also I did a comparison and averaged out the progged 3d movement between GFS and HAFS and determined Milton is about 3.5 degrees off from 72hr forecast. Meaning it’s moving slower to the tune of about 241.5 miles over the last 3 days compared to its prognostication, or about 80miles slower per day 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, Cirrus Condition said: I'm still wondering if Milton is going to suck that storm up for the merge...but instead, it appears to be leading the way. That’s not a storm that’s part of Milton. Outer part of the system/feeder bands same thing happened with Helene. The core is there but they have to breath that’s how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Back up the dump truck of salt, but... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: I heard that they're telling people to put the debris in their garage (whatever can't be picked up in time). Might be hard to put everything in the garage for some people though. First you need a garage…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) Cat 5 again BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES Edited October 8 by Burr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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