AceGikmo Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) So what will lead to this heading north? I'm surprised that any storm this strong isn't already headed that direction... Did the ERC just disrupt the eventual northward march temporarily? Edited October 8 by AceGikmo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I was talking debris earlier. Have a good friend in Bradenton. Debris still all over the place and a lot of homes and biz’s boarded up and closed from Helene. Sand in piles everywhere. That was from a 5 ft surge. Bradenton is in the cross hairs of this one. we are watching a horror movie in slow motion. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 This storm is definitely getting stronger again right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) In fact looking at the satellite I think this is already back to cat5 Edited October 8 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: In fact looking at the satellite I this is already back to cat5 Next update should be a minimum of 165 mph and a low 900s mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 That surge is pretty much set now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: That surge is pretty much set now. Honestly, to me - it's already been set. No scenario actually spared the massive inundation we're gonna see. That includes yesterday's outlook when I said that same thing and posted a concurring opinion from a 35 yr on the desk buddy of mine (not ST by the way, this is a recent acquaintance I've made) I guess we could say -it was 97% yesterday and now is a full 100% 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: That surge is pretty much set now. Yeah I don't think it matters too much now about the category. It's about the water. If it stays crazy with the wind it's just another shame. It's gonna be really really bad no matter what. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Mission 15 is sampling upper air. Mission 16 is on the runway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: imo, no reason why it won't get to cat 5 again. Not sure it will get quite as intense as yesterday though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: CI is 7.1 and it lags. Current Raw T is 7.4 . 7.4 is between 150 and 155 kts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 That’s a Cat 5 in every way except the official designation 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, 1816 said: Yeah I don't think it matters too much now about the category. It's about the water. If it stays crazy with the wind it's just another shame. It's gonna be really really bad no matter what. I still think it does. If some of those areas near the greatest surge also get a ton of rain from say a cat 4, the flooding may be unimaginable. You would have flooding from the rains, and then a huge wall of water from the surge preventing it from escaping. The worst parts of the Bible basically. That is what is really scary about a Tampa hit, with the design on the city. 126 sq miles of beach and development in a 3 quarter semi-circle facing the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Figured this was coming today after Milton maintained very well during his EWRC. Going to be firing on all cylinders again for the next few hours. What an absolute monster of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: CI is 7.1 and it lags. Current Raw T is 7.4 . 7.4 is between 150 and 155 kts. Very powerful hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) SSTs are upper 80s -90+ where Milton is about to enter soon. Edited October 8 by mikeysed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Regarding Tampa... Goes without saying that a landfall even a little south of the bay would be a better scenario for Tampa, but that is still not a great outcome for them by any means. That could put them in the northern eyewall where winds would still be pretty intense, and in a zone of max rainfall on the northern end, resulting in heightened flood concerns from rainfall. Couple that with any debris from Helene that is left behind to possibly be swept/carried away, and it's still a bad scenario for them. Realistically, I don't really see an outcome with minimal effects for Tampa. The choices are catastrophic, very bad, and bad. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Very powerful hurricane As much as I like to study storms and would like to be inside it to experience it, I would not want to be there at all. If that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Regarding Tampa... Goes without saying that a landfall even a little south of the bay would be a better scenario for Tampa, but that is still not a great outcome for them by any means. That could put them in the northern eyewall where winds would still be pretty intense, and in a zone of max rainfall on the northern end, resulting in heightened flood concerns from rainfall. Couple that with any debris from Helene that is left behind to possibly be swept/carried away, and it's still a bad scenario for them. Realistically, I don't really see an outcome with minimal effects for Tampa. The choices are catastrophic, very bad, and bad. What would be best for Tampa (aside from it petering out)? Current path aside, if they were to get hit, would it be best for them to be north or south of the eyewall entirely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 gotta go drop off my car at the collision center - I expect that an interim update issues at 4pm to designate what we all can see and others experts are now mentioning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, clm said: What would be best for Tampa (aside from it petering out)? Current path aside, if they were to get hit, would it be best for them to be north or south of the eyewall entirely? More north, since this is hitting the west coast of Florida while moving East, the worst location is going to be from NE/E/SE eyewall. Similar to Sandy, it hit eastcoast moving west, south of landfall they were spared much of the flooding and wind damage, places at or north of landfall got destroyed. Edited October 8 by LUCC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted October 8 Admin Share Posted October 8 Just now, Undertakerson2.0 said: gotta go drop off my car at the collision center 🤔🤔🤔 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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