Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 1 minute ago, TLChip said: Those last frames… getting its act together again? However, it does not appear that the hurricane weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction - NHC Edited October 8 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 15z sounding for GFS - not a lot of shear forecast. This is the core of the storm average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 (edited) rewrapped but with some drier air just outside the eyewall. Have to see how that works its way out. Edited October 8 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, Poco said: It’s not favorably interacting with land currently, I expect the combination of diurnal cycle, land and another ERC will cause a bit of stagnation until tonight once it clears a couple of those obstacles. For now it’s battling m, watching all the different processes at work can be very educational but stressful if you have skin in the game. Personally I don’t but I’m no expert by any measure, frankly I’m probably one step above a rambling lunatic, but I do my best 😛 I thought we were all part of the rambling lunatics organization? 🤪 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 38 minutes ago, longislander said: Because evacuation isn't easy. Hours on the road, struggle to find hotels, running out of gas, car accidents along the escape route. Only people in the affected storm surge zones should evacuate. What happens here is that people outside those zones, panic and evacuate too, and they take up the hotels and roads needed for the people who should leave. I remember when I evacuated for Sandy, family members couldn't get hotel rooms, the guy checking into the hotel next to me - lived 5 miles away from the hotel, yet he "evacuated" to it. Easy or not it's dumb not to! Don't wait until the last minute is key as well. Make the effort & get the crap out or increase your chances of being one of those people who thought "I'll be ok" & ends up dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 A lot of focus on Tampa area but this area concerns me even more. Particularly since the storm may hit just south of Tampa, which would relieve Tampa area of the worst, but would still hit this area perhaps worse than modeled here. Red is 9+ feet surge, orange is 6+ and yellow is 3+. 6-9+ will ruin your home inland, destroy it coastal with wave action too. 3+ will muck it up really good. Every barrier island is 9+. Almost all of Cape Coral is flooded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Issue # 2,000 with this one is all the debris outside from Helene, which flooded a huge area of the state. Even a couple feet of surge is going to grab that stuff. There are blocks and blocks all over with furniture and other stuff in front yards or by the streets waiting to be disposed of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Issue # 2,000 with this one is all the debris outside from Helene, which flooded a huge area of the state. Even a couple feet of surge is going to grab that stuff. There are blocks and blocks all over with furniture and other stuff in front yards or by the streets waiting to be disposed of. Come on those Floridians are hoping the ocean will take it back out to sea.🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Issue # 2,000 with this one is all the debris outside from Helene, which flooded a huge area of the state. Even a couple feet of surge is going to grab that stuff. There are blocks and blocks all over with furniture and other stuff in front yards or by the streets waiting to be disposed of. Also debris already free enhances the “missiles “ launched by the winds. Debris enhances street flooding as drains get blocked, in other words this is just plain bad no matter where it hits. IMHO Edited October 8 by Wtkidz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 (edited) Might be gassing up again. 925 pressure is the lowest of this mission. Edited October 8 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 47 minutes ago, Grace said: Easy or not it's dumb not to! Don't wait until the last minute is key as well. Make the effort & get the crap out or increase your chances of being one of those people who thought "I'll be ok" & ends up dead. I'd rather evacuate and have nothing happen and all I do is complain about it being waste of time blah blah blah than to stay and lose my home, our lives, etc..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, 1816 said: Er C your way out of here milty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Pressure dropping and eye clearing out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I still think this comes ashore S of TB. Plausible for sure. Sarasota looks like it's gonna get wrecked no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Issue # 2,000 with this one is all the debris outside from Helene, which flooded a huge area of the state. Even a couple feet of surge is going to grab that stuff. There are blocks and blocks all over with furniture and other stuff in front yards or by the streets waiting to be disposed of. I heard that they're telling people to put the debris in their garage (whatever can't be picked up in time). Might be hard to put everything in the garage for some people though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Ready to ROCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Ready to ROCK 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I noticed that too, a TON of lightning in the eye along with it clearing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 I'm assuming some of you already use this website, but thought it was pretty cool to use regarding storm surge/flooding. https://cera.coastalrisk.live/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 minutes ago, LUCC said: I'm assuming some of you already use this website, but thought it was pretty cool to use regarding storm surge/flooding. https://cera.coastalrisk.live/ I had not known of this - thanks LUCC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Bent to the SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 12z HWRF run looks pretty bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 12z HWRF run looks pretty bad. How so? Less weakening like the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Author Moderators Share Posted October 8 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 12z HWRF run looks pretty bad. HMON too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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